El Niño vs. the Farmers’ Almanac

With the release of the 2010 Farmers’ Almanac and our official “Ice Cold Sandwich” outlook for the winter ahead, a few people have asked us what we think about an El Nino forming and throwing a curve ball into our forecasts.

Here is an official statement from Farmers’ Almanac’s weather prognosticator, Caleb Weatherbee:

“The fact that we have had limited tropical storm activity this year suggests that
there is a moderate El Nino going on right now. El Ninos cause upper level wind shear 
that rips tropical systems in the Atlantic apart and keeps them from strengthening. Case in point is Tropical Storm Erika, which is teetering on the brink of being downgraded to a 
depression.

The fact that we have an El Nino doesn’t necessarily mean that the upcoming winter will be mild . . . there have been some pretty snowy El Nino scenarios over the years.  And 
there is a chance that if this one reaches its peak intensity soon, it could start fading 
by the time winter is here; it’s a wait and see proposition, however, based on our formula we stand by our Frigid Winter Outlook for three-quarters of the country.”

My advice: stock up on firewood, gloves, snow shovels and Farmers’ Almanacs – they’re a good read when it’s too cold and snowy to go out.