These are my updated preliminary DJF outlook maps:
Temperatures:
Early Winter (NDJ):
Late Winter (JFM):
Precipitation Outlook:
Winter Pattern to expect:
- Winter starts early for the east and south followed by a possible early Autumn leading to a cold holiday season. This is 1 or 2 windows for us
to get wintry weather.
- Winter starts early for GL's, NNE, OV, Apps, MW, N. Plains, Rockies, and PNW. Winter starts and it stays for the long-haul. However,
this statement is more valid for the rockies and PNW.
- Much more snow in the NNE, N. Plains, GL's, OV, Rockies, and PNW.
- Serious threat of ice from the central and southern plains to the SE and up to the Mid-Atlantic.
- Warmer and drier weather invades the southern tier by mid-winter.
- By winters tail-end (March) we could have a couple of weeks where we could squeeze in another snow or ice event before its over (similar to 08/09).
- Winter last much longer for northern and western states leading to ski resorts staying open later into the year.
- I expect a moderate La Nina that is east based becoming basin-wide that weakens throughout the winter hittings its peak during the Fall months.
- I expect solar activity to remain very low.
- Finally, I expect a -PDO, +PNA with a varying AO/NAO.
I'm from Kentucky too southern Kentucky.
Ice blows. Its pretty in small doses…but it blows none the less.
I find your outlook very interesting FatherFrost… typically a La Nina makes the latter half of winter colder than the first half in my region (in terms of anomalies) but this might not act like a “normal” La Nina.
Should be interesting to see what happens.
The NW really seems to be the bullseye but overall it looks typical la ninia-ish. Midwest and GL should be another hot bed. Warm lakes may crimp any nov snows if October hangs tough with the warmth and Dec looks very active. Should be fun, be intersting to see if the pattern mimicks the hyperactivity of the 07/08 season where seemingly every other day brought some kind of synoptic event. The lake belts should get walloped big time though. Buffalo should really see a spike in snow versus last winter just to name a few.
Fatherfrost, Ty for answering me and I sure would like to see some snow this winter. So again thanks again and will be watching for more predictions as winter gets closer.
Likewise. Alot can happen between now and Winter. The maps will probably haped to be updated again eventually.
I am in Owensboro, KY