2nd week of august change

Posted By: Maxceedo  Posted On: Jul 30th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

Allot of people are very anxious about these “changes” comeing around the second weeks in august

and since everyone on edge about it ill be the one to ask the question..how drastic will these changes be and who will be effected 

this goes out to anyone who may know the ansewers

  1. The Rickster says:

    Makes me wonder the same thing. If it involves cooler weather where I can actually get out and ride my bicycles, without waiting untill midnight for it to cool off (even though I still sweat), I'm game!

  2. TheMaineMan says:

    Unfortunately for you, the change will dramatically come from the north and sweep southward. Thus, the anomalies will switch from warm to cold in the northeast first, and not reach the mid-Atlantic until late September. Cool spells in the southeast will be rare this autumn.

  3. arkansasdolfan says:

    Oh it will reach the Mid-Atlantic far before late September. At least, I think.

    I don't confess to know anything but my area (the Southern Plains), and as I have said before, for my area I think towards the end of the third week of August (as I have been saying for a while). However, it stands to reason, that if it changes here then, then it will have to change farther north a little earlier.

    And yes, I think it will be a pretty drastic change.

  4. The Rickster says:

    So the South East will be warm this Autumn? Crap Cry

  5. arkansasdolfan says:

    Rickster, I seriously doubt the SE will be warm this autumn. And the CFS is starting to agree with me.

  6. The Rickster says:

    WELL HOT DOGGIES!!!!!!!!! Looks like it might be another cool/cold winter. Arkansasdolfan, thank you for giveing my some hope once again. I beleive those maps made my night. Only thing that I KNOW could make my night, is a job Money mouth.

  7. FatherFrost says:

    TheMaineMan said:Unfortunately for you, the change will dramatically come from the north and sweep southward. Thus, the anomalies will switch from warm to cold in the northeast first, and not reach the mid-Atlantic until late September. Cool spells in the southeast will be rare this autumn.


    No offense MaineMan but this will reach the Mid-Atlantic. The forecast showing a week of low 80s for highs is a blessing.

    The last La Nina we had (which is one of the top analogues for this year) 07/08 behaved like this years identical twin.

    Usually in a La Nina, a good chunk of the nation from the Midwest to the East Coast experiences a cool punch by mid-late August. This is the first nail in the coffin for Summer. After that there are usually two short-lived warm spells. One takes place around mid-September just before the official start of Autumn. The 2nd takes place around the first or 2nd week of October. Overall towards mid-late August during La Nina's, Summer is dying from the N. Rockies, through the plain states, into the south, the Lakes, OV, Mountains and along the East Coast. This, would lead into that Early Fall we've been discussing. Oh and by the way, for all those that are looking forward to Christmastime (My favorite time of year) signs are increasingly pointing to a cold and…interesting…one for much of the nation except the SW.

    Oh and if you're predicting an Indian Summer for the mid-atlantic, know the official definition:

    -Indian Summer:

       “A season is classified as an Indian Summer when temperatures exceed the 80 degree mark for more than a few days after there has already been a significant cool down and/or the first frost has ocurred”.

    Just providing with you with info about typical La Nina's and how this summer is practically the same to the Summer of '07.

    Not trying to offend. ;)

  8. okie333 says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    Oh it will reach the Mid-Atlantic far before late September. At least, I think.

    I don't confess to know anything but my area (the Southern Plains), and as I have said before, for my area I think towards the end of the third week of August (as I have been saying for a while). However, it stands to reason, that if it changes here then, then it will have to change farther north a little earlier.

    And yes, I think it will be a pretty drastic change.


    Agreed on the drastic change (“like a light switch, not a dimmer”). However, I think the timing for our area will be mid-September… August is kinda pushing it for the light switch change. On the other hand, I am beginning to think it will come in two parts. One cooling to seasonable September conditions (akin to one light of a 3-light fixture turning off) in mid-to-late August, then the big change (the other two lights turning off) in mid-September.

    The -QBO doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime fast (it is staying easterly), the solar activity this year is just south of puny, and volcanic eruptions occurred in the Arctic in the years 2008-2010 (mainly 2008 and 2009). All three point strongly toward a -AO this winter. Granted, the magnitude of the effects of the volcanic eruptions is uncertain, but given last winter's –AO everything has to be taken into consideration. A fourth reason I believe a -AO will occur is that the correlations in the Atlantic match for a -AO in the winter (more on that in the August update). An east-to-central based Niña that peaks sooner than normal (ASO or SON), a -PDO, a -GLAAM, and a -EPO should combine to allow the AO to work farther west than last winter, as well as to allow fresh Arctic air to more easily take advantage of the -AO. The Niña signal and the AO signal combined will cause colder than normal conditions for much of the USA, particularly in December and particularly in the Upper Midwest. A “January thaw” will likely hit areas south of 40N, with temperatures rising to near or slightly above average. February is very uncertain, but I am leaning toward a resurgence of the -AO pattern with a neutral to very weak Niña ENSO by then, causing temps to plummet back to near the levels seen in December. Again, the Pacific pattern will allow the Arctic air that had built in January to make its way full-force southward in February when the AO switches back to negative. Major snow in store for the Great Lakes assuming the water stays above average in temperature.

  9. okie333 says:

    Sorry for the double post. I pressed “Quote” instead of “Edit” by mistake. This is the edited (newer) version of my previous post.

    arkansasdolfan said:

    Oh it will reach the Mid-Atlantic far before late September. At least, I think.

    I don't confess to know anything but my area (the Southern Plains), and as I have said before, for my area I think towards the end of the third week of August (as I have been saying for a while). However, it stands to reason, that if it changes here then, then it will have to change farther north a little earlier.

    And yes, I think it will be a pretty drastic change.


    Agreed on the drastic change (“like a light switch, not a dimmer”). However, I think the timing for our area will be mid-September… August is kinda pushing it for the light switch change. On the other hand, I am beginning to think it will come in two parts. One cooling to seasonable September conditions (akin to one light of a 3-light fixture turning off) in mid-to-late August, then the big change (the other two lights turning off) in mid-September.

    The -QBO doesn't look to be going anywhere anytime fast, the solar activity this year is just south of puny, and volcanic eruptions occurred in the Arctic in the years 2008-2010 (mainly 2008 and 2009). All three point strongly toward a -AO this winter. Granted, the magnitude of the effects of the volcanic eruptions is uncertain, but given last winter's –AO everything has to be taken into consideration. A fourth reason I believe a -AO will occur is that the correlations in the Atlantic match for a -AO in the winter (more on that in the August update). An east-to-central based Niña that peaks sooner than normal (ASO or SON), a -PDO, a -GLAAM, and a -EPO should combine to allow the AO to work farther west than last winter, as well as to allow fresh Arctic air to more easily take advantage of the -AO. The Niña signal and the AO signal combined will cause colder than normal conditions for much of the USA, particularly in December and particularly in the Upper Midwest. A “January thaw” will likely hit areas south of 40N, with temperatures rising to near or slightly above average. February is very uncertain, but I am leaning toward a resurgence of the -AO pattern with a neutral to very weak Niña ENSO by then, causing temps to plummet back to near the levels seen in December. Again, the Pacific pattern will allow the Arctic air that had built in January to make its way full-force southward in February when the AO switches back to negative. Major snow in store for the Great Lakes assuming the water stays above average in temperature.

  10. wjp2011111 says:

    Oh Okie…Look up the EPO with a Nina cold PDO.  Then tell me how it is used in this circumstance, not in pure distinction with the typical anomly base.

    You were originally saying “cold neutral to weak east based”.  Now you go against your word to me in our “challenge”, and shift your basis to partially match mine, albeit not completely………you say east to Central based, and now an early peak…………………….

    This La Nina could be the strongest in recorded history, and soon, you'll deny we ever “challenged” eachother, and you'll walk on.

      I don't mean to insult you, but…. in my view, there is something wrong here.

    Can you explain your method for analyzing the ENSO, PDO/AMO, and the teleconnectors??  I've run your data over and over again, trying to make sense of everything going on here.  I can't figure it out.

    Can you at least try to use the AO and NAO as a secondary variable, as they are?  Do you realize what a strong La Nina does to the PV, and the resulting AO/NAO base?  Do you realize that with a submissive EPO, and the Link to the WPO/GWO, the MJO must be used, as the convection in polarity to the International Date line will not be presenting itself?

    I cant go any farther, my neves are shot.

  11. okie333 says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    Oh Okie…. Jesus.  Look up the EPO with a Nina cold PDO.  Then tell me how it is used in this circumstance, not in pure distinction with the typical anomly base.

    You were originally saying “cold neutral to weak east based”.  Now you go against your word to me in our “challenge”, and shift your basis to partially match mine, albeit not completely………you say east to Central based, and now an early peak…………………….

    This La Nina could be the strongest in recorded history, and soon, you'll deny we ever “challenged” eachother, and you'll walk on.

      I don't mean to insult you, but…. in my view, there is something wrong here.

    Can you explain your method for analyzing the ENSO, PDO/AMO, and the teleconnectors??  I've run your data over and over again, trying to make sense of everything going on here.  I can't figure it out.

    Can you at least try to use the AO and NAO as a secondary variable, as they are?  Do you realize what a strong La Nina does to the PV, and the resulting AO/NAO base?  Do you realize that with a submissive EPO, and the Link to the WPO/GWO, the MJO must be used, as the convection in polarity to the International Date line will not be presenting itself?

    I cant go any farther, my neves are shot.


    My original post said I believed it would be east-central based (region 3), and that is still my thinking. Read my latest post again. I never said it would get beyond weak for the trimonthlies; at any rate, I was referring to the monthlies in my forecast (except for the ASO/SON reference).

  12. arkansasdolfan says:

    Yeah Okie, I didn't mean to suggest intense fall weather for us third week of August, just September type weather of highs in the low to mid 80's and lows in the upper 50's/low 60's.

    I do agree that we will have October type weather by mid-September though.

  13. wjp2011111 says:

    Changing your story makes you feel good, doesn't it?  Your “ENSO Challenge” to me, will you change the rules again, or your thoughts?

    You have an answer to my question about your EPO blunder??  My other 4 questions?

    I honestly don't mean to insult you, but I feel I need to give you a Hard time sometimesYell

  14. okie333 says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    Changing your story makes you feel good, doesn't it?  Your “ENSO Challenge” to me, will you change the rules again, or your thoughts?

    You have an answer to my question about your EPO blunder??  My other 4 questions?

    I honestly don't mean to insult you, but I feel I need to give you a Hard time sometimesYell


    Still not changing either my thoughts or the rules. I used the subsurface anomalies along with the ENSO region charts and graphs to come up with the ENSO forecast. The PDO was forecast based on trend, and based on the fact that La Niñas, even weak ones, tend to amplify a -PDO pattern. The extremely low (possibly even record) GLAAM tends to cause the Pacific to be very submissive to cross-polar flow (the -EPO). East-based Niñas tend to amplify this submissiveness, whereas west-based Niñas tend to subdue or reverse it. Basin-wide and central-based Niñas appear to have little effect on the EPO. Many models are forecasting an early peak, most notably the EUROSIP ensemble.

  15. wjp2011111 says:

    okie333 said:

    wjp2011111 said:

    Changing your story makes you feel good, doesn't it?  Your “ENSO Challenge” to me, will you change the rules again, or your thoughts?

    You have an answer to my question about your EPO blunder??  My other 4 questions?

    I honestly don't mean to insult you, but I feel I need to give you a Hard time sometimesYell


    Still not changing either my thoughts or the rules. I used the subsurface anomalies along with the ENSO region charts and graphs to come up with the ENSO forecast. The PDO was forecast based on trend, and based on the fact that La Niñas, even weak ones, tend to amplify a -PDO pattern. The extremely low (possibly even record) GLAAM tends to cause the Pacific to be very submissive to cross-polar flow (the -EPO). East-based Niñas tend to amplify this submissiveness, whereas west-based Niñas tend to subdue or reverse it. Basin-wide and central-based Niñas appear to have little effect on the EPO. Many models are forecasting an early peak, most notably the EUROSIP ensemble.


    huh???  The Subsurface anomalies right now SCREAM West Based, I've actually never seen them scream west based so loudly.  Do you also realize this La Nina has a shot at being the strongest ever recorded?  As the autumn approaches, the annual shift in subP current activity in the equatorial Pacific leads to the Cold pool to SURFACE?  From OCT thru-JAN, the La Nina would be at its peak, (predominately in Sep-oct-nov, oct-nov-dec, nov-dec- jan, and dec-jan-feb).

    Why Pay any attention to the EUROSIP…. ironically, the models forecasting an early peak did the same with last years Nino……because…….They have poor “mental”(if you want to call it that) resolution, as they can't read the teleconnecting of independant variables far enough in advance.  There-for, they always try to bring the ENSO to Normal (0.0).

  16. TheMaineMan says:

    FatherFrost,

    I didn't know there was an official definition of Indian Summer… interesting. My first frost is usually in mid-late September, and 80s is kind of rare in October. We did have a stretch of days in November last year of 60+ degrees, which is impressive because our average high is only around 40.

    I do think there will be a significant warm spell for the entire eastern half of North America (well into Canada) from late September through mid-October. Temperatures could reach 5-10, maybe even 15 degrees above normal. However, this warm spell will be preceded and followed by pro-longed periods of cooler-than-normal weather… in fact the warm spell would play a significant role in shaping up a cool second half of October, average-to-cool November, and cold December for many of us.

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  18. The Rickster says:

    I'm waiting on it Maineman. Although, today has been cool (by our standards, as of now). Its 86 degrees outside. Warm? Yes. Tolerable? YES. Way more tolerable than that 95-100 degree heat.

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