As I look at people's views on the winter coming up, I see several mentions of the Southern Plains being much above normal or blowtorching b/c of the strong/moderate La Nina. First of all, I understand this perception, I have seen the maps from the climate division too that has that large area of yellows and oranges over Arkansas and Oklahoma. However, looking at the years that had a tri-monthly peak of greater (or less than if you will) than -1.0. For those deadset on extreme warmth this winter in this area based on ENSO, you might need to rethink things.
2007 Plus .3
1999 Plus 4.4
1998 Plus 3.8
1988 Minus .9
1984 Minus 2.3
1975 Plus 1.2
1973 Minus .8
1970 Plus .2
1964 Plus .1
1955 Minus .8
1954 Plus .8
1950 Plus .2
Above Average 3/12
Below Average 1/12
Near Average 8/12
As you can see, 75 percent of the time, the temps are very close to the DJF average. This leads me to be believe that 98/99 are skewing those maps to be that warm, but I am not here to argue the validity of those maps as I use them quite often as well.
Keep in mind that these deal with observed temperatures at Fort Smith, AR and the temp info is from the Fort Smith Climate Page on the NWS Tulsa website and it was cross referenced to the ENSO stats on the CPC center site, I can provide links to both sites if so desired. Also, I only know of free ENSO data dating back to 1950, so this is obviously an incomplete list, but a fair sample size I think.
In conclusion, I would just like to add that I did this research for my own autumn and winter forecast that I have been working on and that this info is not the end all be all for all of the Southern Plains; however, I feel confident that this data would look very close for Fayetteville, Tulsa, and OKC.
Discuss.
I agree with you. A lot of the La Nina analogs that I have looked out have rather average winters for the southern plains. I don't see a blowtorch by any means. I think the only place that will be truly warmer than normal this winter will be the southeast U.S. and Florida where the subtropical ridge will interact more.
I really believe this La Nina will be basin wide with no true west based or east based dominance(although there has been some indication of a slight easterly basis). Once the PDO fully transitions and the trade winds weaken then La Nina will start to level off. I expect a peak betwen October and November and weakening from then. The NAO is going to play a big part in the amplification of the pattern which may drive a wetter pattern for parts of the south and east as opposed to the typical “dryer and warmer” most associate with La Nina. I have a STRONG intuition that this winter will be far from blowtorch and the western 2/3rds of the nation are almost guaranteed to have a colder winter.
You know the crazy thing about the whole thing? One of our local mets (the chief at our main rival station) posted a blog today about how Nina winters are notoriously warm in the area. I wanted to pull my hair out (although we are going to post a blog with my info and slam it i his face).
I've also come to the conclusion that ENSO, while important, is just not the main driver in our weather down here. I can't say for sure what is, although I have an idea that isn't formed enough to say out loud, but looking at the top ten cold and warm winters, it was pretty mixed. The top cold ranged from Strong Ninos to Weak Ninas and everything in between.
I certainly agree with your thoughts on this year's Nina though.
NAILED it! Winter temp in Fort Smith was Minus .9 and the Nina had a tri-monthly peak of 1.4 meaning that my predictors lined up, despite detractors. I might not be able to predict the rest of the country, but I sure can predict OK/AR.
By the way, the new board is great, very nice work admins. Welcome back everyone!
Nice job!
I agree with you guys. Many mets said that this past winter was going to be a “blowtorch” winter with very warm temps and little snowfall for TX and OK. I received several inches of snow on more than one occasion (3 to be exact with a few light snow/flurry “events”.). I also stayed below 32*F for 4 to 5 straight days with high temps staying below 24*F for 2 of those days. It was the coldest winter I have witnessed here in North Texas. Many of your mainstream weather sources tend to generalize the weather across the South Central U.S. with most of the focus being on the NE, SE, and W Coast. Right now, I do not foresee the Southern Plains seeing above-average temps this winter. I think it will be a near-normal winter with the ENSO-neutral or weak La Nina conditions forecast to be in place this fall and winter. The winter pattern should be largely influenced by the NAO, AO, PNA, & AAO values. What are everyone’s thoughts on the upcoming winter for the Southern Plains?
Okay…here’s my silly question. What is considered the Southern Plains? I just hope that this winter we will get a real snowfall in Central Texas that will last a couple of days. That would be nice. I almost got in my car and drove to Dallas a couple of times this past winter just so I could remember what it felt like.
Most of the time, the term “Southern Plains” refers to the states of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. Some sources may include Kansas; but, it is actually part of the Central Plains. The Southern Plains always includes Texas and Oklahoma, though.
As far as this winter goes, I think it will be pretty darn average. Like you said, it will be highly dependent on other factors, but as far as ENSO goes, there just aren’t any strong signals based on neutral conditions. With that being said, I do believe that the simple Southern Plains winter formula will be in effect.
Warmer 1+2/ Cooler 3.4 = Warmer than normal
Cooler 1+2/ Warmer 3.4 = Cooler than normal
Of course, the weaker the event (closer to neutral) the weaker the signal. Which takes us back to next year.
As for where the Southern Plains are, I have a slightly different opinion. I believe it basically goes in an area of roughly Rogers, AR to Bartlesville, OK, to Stillwater, OK to Oklahoma City to Dallas to Monroe, LA to Little Rock to Mountain Home, AR back to Rogers. Basically inside of that little square. North of that area would be getting into the lower Midwest, west would be into the eastern desert Southwest, south would be the deep South, and east would be the Southeast.
Anyway, working on a fall forecast right now, looking very cool for our area.
I hope you’re right about this fall. I could use a break from this heat. It’s been nothing but 90*F+ days and 70*F nights since early May. The humidity is what makes it bad, though, increasing heat indices well above 100*F.
Thank you for your answers.
When do you think the changeover from summer to fall will be this year? Very excited about the change, would even mow my lawn if there was grass and not dust. Thanks for the information.
Here in Greenwood, so we usually get aboout a degree hotter than Fort Smith.
Wow, of all the places in the world, you are just a few miles south of me, Bill. Cool stuff.
I honestly think it will be sometime around the first of September. The ridge of death is currently expanding, by mid August it should start to shift west and shrink, leaving us in a northwest flow pattern around the start of September. That is not to say we won’t still have some really hot days as that ridge flexes a little bit.
I am reconsidering my fall forecast though, given that we have had EXTREME winter, spring, and now summer, it is hard not to consider that we won’t be extreme in the fall as well. We will see, but it is important to note that winter, spring, and summer have all started almost right on time with the start to their corresponding seasons (first of December, March, and June).
Just something to think about.
Thanks for the update. It will be good to see.
If you could get a few tropical systems to push on the southern portion of the ridge, it may keep it from getting too bad. Tropical Storm Don is heading for the central coast of Texas according to the NHC:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents
another thing that I believe they have dead wrong for you guys in the southern tier of the US, is being so much drier than average, weak to Neuteral La Ninas have a tendancy to pruduce some very erratic weather patterns in the lower 48, and often can occasionally trigger the MJOs that bring huge storms to much of the nation, and I believe these patterns could be potentially very impactful to drought-stricken areas )like Texas) and it just so happens that we have already seen and example of the MJO becoming active this year, which brought half a foot of rain or more to parts of the lone star state, and also brought a few inches of rain to the lower elevations of Colorado as well as nearly a foot of snow at my house.
Well, here in the Midwest for the past 8 years, we’ve had Indian summers with mild temps into November. I’m not seeing it this year. We’re getting what would previously have been seasonal temps. 48-50 degrees during the day and low 30′s at night. I anticipate this being a cold winter with a lot of blowing snow. The geese normally fly south the end of October. They left in August. Wisconsin had a damaging wind storm on Labor Day weekend with gusts at 50 mph. Power out and big oak trees uprooted. Since then, we’ve had a lot of biting cold Northerly shifting winds coming here from Canada with wind gusts 20-40 mph. If the METS are predicting warmer temps this winter, we’re sure not seeing it.