Danielle underwent a ERC(Eyewall Replacement Cycle) causing it to weaken. By the time a new eyewall is developed the hurricane will be encountering increasing southwesterly shear and a transition to extratropical will be underway. Danielle is missing Bermuda as anticipated and has begun to recurve to the northeast. Earl is being monitored very closely. Right now outflow from Danielle is producing about 10-15knots of shear over the storm and dry air from the SAL(Saharan Air Layer) is impacting it keeping an exposed circulation and limited convection. In the next 24-48 hours Earl will be entering a more favorable upper level environment and strengthening is likely. Earl will become a hurricane by early next week.
The track of Earl is highly uncertain. Earl is being steered by the same ridge of high pressure that steered Danielle. This westerly motion Earl is currently taken will shif to the WNW as it reaches the end of the ridge and follows a path of resistance left by Danielle. This will eventually turn Earl northwest between Bermuda and the eastern U.S. I am very concerned that Earl COULD make landfall somewhere from North Carolina towards Massachussettes( I probably spelt that wrong). A trough of low pressure may be enough to push Earl out to sea but one thing is for certain Earl will make a more determined attempt at the U.S. than Danielle and I advise residents in the aforementioned areas to watch things closely.
weather411, what do u think about the 1 right behind earl, 1 that could become fiona?
It's Massachusetts, you got really close!
I sure hope Earl stays away from NC especially, I have a friend that just moved there and they have no experience with any type of tropical system since they spent their whole life in the Midwest. Not so good!
Fiona is one to watch as well… The 12z ECMWF was ominous.
ive been wondering when that system will develope cause its taking a while, been under a high chance for bout 2 day for forming.
Hurricanes suck