I Talk a Big Name; Now I Back it Up with my WINTER Forecast V.1!

Posted By: arkansasdolfan  Posted On: Aug 29th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

I have had a lot to say in the past about things and one of the things that has been brought up is that I have no room to talk because I have not issued my own long range outlook. Well, I have been working on it for some time, as evidenced by my Southern Plains info I posted last Sunday, but I did not want to post any maps until I had at least 60 percent confidence in one of them. As luck would have it, I know have enough confidence enough in my temp forecast to post them, and I will go ahead and post my precip as well with the caveat that my confidence is only around 25-30 percent on that front.

As for what I expect from the big factors, well my thoughts are rather mundane. A high end moderate Nina that is central based (really more basin wide with slightly higher anomolies in the east and slightly lower in the west, which is to say slightly warmer in Nino 1+2 and cooler in 4). The negative PDO is a given, as is a lower than normal solar cycle (even if it is waking up). I forsee a mainly -NAO with periods of slightly positive anomolies and an -AO that will be neutral-negative to negative with a few weeks where it goes very positive in January. I will admit, the QBO going to the plus side worries me, but I do believe that some of the other factors will help to balance that out a bit.

So as we go into to my temperature map, I would like to point out that the SE Ridge is present in a more suppressed form, although it will certainly be more variable then some would like to admit. The warm anomolies in the SE show the mean location of the ridge. I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that the Pac NW will be colder than normal so I have left them out of the cooler anomolies for now. However, I think the coldest anomolies (which is not to say the coldest temperatures per say) will be in the central and northern plains and the central Rockies. You will notice a large amount of white on the temperature map, and that is to say that I really think this will be a pretty average winter over much of the US.

Temps V.1

Moving on to the precipitation, which again I am not extremely confident in at the moment, you will see that the there are a large amount of positive anomolies throughout the center of the country. This is due to the fact that I think the mean storm track will be just north of I-44 this year, which is why you have the large green blob within 100 miles either way of that track (give or take). I threw in three more areas of positive anomolies (in the NE, NW, and SW) where moderate Ninas have tended to give slightly higher amounts of precip. I do however see a sharp gradient to the south of our main storm track, meaning areas in Texas and Louisiana look to continue their drought conditions. One thing I do feel comfortable in though is the extreme dryness in the upper Rockies (after what I think will be a wet fall for that area). A disclaimer that just because you appear in the green, it does not mean I am saying you will have above normal snow, just above normal precip in general.

Precip v.1

There you have it, my first look at the winter with another coming up toward the end of September or early October. Although I did not include a snowfall map, as I think it is a bit early and really hard to broadbrush areas where there can be extreme variablity; however, if you want, I can give you my thoughts on your area if you really want. :)

Enjoy, and if you so choose, enjoy ripping it apart!

  1. Grandin says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I have had a lot to say in the past about things and one of the things that has been brought up is that I have no room to talk because I have not issued my own long range outlook. Well, I have been working on it for some time, as evidenced by my Southern Plains info I posted last Sunday, but I did not want to post any maps until I had at least 60 percent confidence in one of them. As luck would have it, I know have enough confidence enough in my temp forecast to post them, and I will go ahead and post my precip as well with the caveat that my confidence is only around 25-30 percent on that front.

    As for what I expect from the big factors, well my thoughts are rather mundane. A high end moderate Nina that is central based (really more basin wide with slightly higher anomolies in the east and slightly lower in the west, which is to say slightly warmer in Nino 1+2 and cooler in 4). The negative PDO is a given, as is a lower than normal solar cycle (even if it is waking up). I forsee a mainly -NAO with periods of slightly positive anomolies and an -AO that will be neutral-negative to negative with a few weeks where it goes very positive in January. I will admit, the QBO going to the plus side worries me, but I do believe that some of the other factors will help to balance that out a bit.

    So as we go into to my temperature map, I would like to point out that the SE Ridge is present in a more suppressed form, although it will certainly be more variable then some would like to admit. The warm anomolies in the SE show the mean location of the ridge. I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that the Pac NW will be colder than normal so I have left them out of the cooler anomolies for now. However, I think the coldest anomolies (which is not to say the coldest temperatures per say) will be in the central and northern plains and the central Rockies. You will notice a large amount of white on the temperature map, and that is to say that I really think this will be a pretty average winter over much of the US.

    Temps V.1

    Moving on to the precipitation, which again I am not extremely confident in at the moment, you will see that the there are a large amount of positive anomolies throughout the center of the country. This is due to the fact that I think the mean storm track will be just north of I-44 this year, which is why you have the large green blob within 100 miles either way of that track (give or take). I threw in three more areas of positive anomolies (in the NE, NW, and SW) where moderate Ninas have tended to give slightly higher amounts of precip. I do however see a sharp gradient to the south of our main storm track, meaning areas in Texas and Louisiana look to continue their drought conditions. One thing I do feel comfortable in though is the extreme dryness in the upper Rockies (after what I think will be a wet fall for that area). A disclaimer that just because you appear in the green, it does not mean I am saying you will have above normal snow, just above normal precip in general.

    Precip v.1

    There you have it, my first look at the winter with another coming up toward the end of September or early October. Although I did not include a snowfall map, as I think it is a bit early and really hard to broadbrush areas where there can be extreme variablity; however, if you want, I can give you my thoughts on your area if you really want. :)

    Enjoy, and if you so choose, enjoy ripping it apart!


    disagree with the temp map. i agree with the precip map.

    Dan

  2. weather411 says:

    I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)

  3. arkansasdolfan says:

    weather411 said:I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)


    More details in the map, the writeup, or just in breaking down the months one by one?

    And thanks man, it has been pretty obvious for about a month that our thoughts were close.

    Dan, it is funny you should say that since my confidence is skewed the other way. Do you just think it will be more zonal this year?

  4. winterlove says:

    Can't wait to see the snowfall map. I'll keep a lookout.

  5. weather411 says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    weather411 said:I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)


    More details in the map, the writeup, or just in breaking down the months one by one?

    And thanks man, it has been pretty obvious for about a month that our thoughts were close.

    Dan, it is funny you should say that since my confidence is skewed the other way. Do you just think it will be more zonal this year?


    The maps.

    I think a few have a bias towards a cold winter in their region but I do think the great lakes will be cold this winter.

  6. Grandin says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    weather411 said:I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)


    More details in the map, the writeup, or just in breaking down the months one by one?

    And thanks man, it has been pretty obvious for about a month that our thoughts were close.

    Dan, it is funny you should say that since my confidence is skewed the other way. Do you just think it will be more zonal this year?


    i disagree withthe temp map because the cold is centered mainly in the midwest with just touching chicago. it should be over all of the great lakes not just lake michigan. and i agree withthe precip map cause thats what im thinking as well. but my maps have a bigger snow rate area.

    Dan

  7. Blizzardlord says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I have had a lot to say in the past about things and one of the things that has been brought up is that I have no room to talk because I have not issued my own long range outlook. Well, I have been working on it for some time, as evidenced by my Southern Plains info I posted last Sunday, but I did not want to post any maps until I had at least 60 percent confidence in one of them. As luck would have it, I know have enough confidence enough in my temp forecast to post them, and I will go ahead and post my precip as well with the caveat that my confidence is only around 25-30 percent on that front.

    As for what I expect from the big factors, well my thoughts are rather mundane. A high end moderate Nina that is central based (really more basin wide with slightly higher anomolies in the east and slightly lower in the west, which is to say slightly warmer in Nino 1+2 and cooler in 4). The negative PDO is a given, as is a lower than normal solar cycle (even if it is waking up). I forsee a mainly -NAO with periods of slightly positive anomolies and an -AO that will be neutral-negative to negative with a few weeks where it goes very positive in January. I will admit, the QBO going to the plus side worries me, but I do believe that some of the other factors will help to balance that out a bit.

    So as we go into to my temperature map, I would like to point out that the SE Ridge is present in a more suppressed form, although it will certainly be more variable then some would like to admit. The warm anomolies in the SE show the mean location of the ridge. I do not think it is a foregone conclusion that the Pac NW will be colder than normal so I have left them out of the cooler anomolies for now. However, I think the coldest anomolies (which is not to say the coldest temperatures per say) will be in the central and northern plains and the central Rockies. You will notice a large amount of white on the temperature map, and that is to say that I really think this will be a pretty average winter over much of the US.

    Temps V.1

    Moving on to the precipitation, which again I am not extremely confident in at the moment, you will see that the there are a large amount of positive anomolies throughout the center of the country. This is due to the fact that I think the mean storm track will be just north of I-44 this year, which is why you have the large green blob within 100 miles either way of that track (give or take). I threw in three more areas of positive anomolies (in the NE, NW, and SW) where moderate Ninas have tended to give slightly higher amounts of precip. I do however see a sharp gradient to the south of our main storm track, meaning areas in Texas and Louisiana look to continue their drought conditions. One thing I do feel comfortable in though is the extreme dryness in the upper Rockies (after what I think will be a wet fall for that area). A disclaimer that just because you appear in the green, it does not mean I am saying you will have above normal snow, just above normal precip in general.

    Precip v.1

    There you have it, my first look at the winter with another coming up toward the end of September or early October. Although I did not include a snowfall map, as I think it is a bit early and really hard to broadbrush areas where there can be extreme variablity; however, if you want, I can give you my thoughts on your area if you really want. :)

    Enjoy, and if you so choose, enjoy ripping it apart!


    what r ur thoughts for fort wayne, IN?

  8. arkansasdolfan says:

    Grandin said:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    weather411 said:I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)


    More details in the map, the writeup, or just in breaking down the months one by one?

    And thanks man, it has been pretty obvious for about a month that our thoughts were close.

    Dan, it is funny you should say that since my confidence is skewed the other way. Do you just think it will be more zonal this year?


    i disagree withthe temp map because the cold is centered mainly in the midwest with just touching chicago. it should be over all of the great lakes not just lake michigan. and i agree withthe precip map cause thats what im thinking as well. but my maps have a bigger snow rate area.

    Dan


    Keep in mind that these are anomolies, the Great Lakes will still be plenty cold, but not out of the ordinary cold.

    I stand by my prediction though of the coldest anomolies will be in  Nebraska, Iowa and N Illinois.

  9. Grandin says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    Grandin said:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    weather411 said:I agree with your general idea that the winter will be warmer and drier south and cooler and wetter north. I wish there was more details but I'm in general agreement with you. :)


    More details in the map, the writeup, or just in breaking down the months one by one?

    And thanks man, it has been pretty obvious for about a month that our thoughts were close.

    Dan, it is funny you should say that since my confidence is skewed the other way. Do you just think it will be more zonal this year?


    i disagree withthe temp map because the cold is centered mainly in the midwest with just touching chicago. it should be over all of the great lakes not just lake michigan. and i agree withthe precip map cause thats what im thinking as well. but my maps have a bigger snow rate area.

    Dan


    Keep in mind that these are anomolies, the Great Lakes will still be plenty cold, but not out of the ordinary cold.

    I stand by my prediction though of the coldest anomolies will be in  Nebraska, Iowa and N Illinois.


    And i respect your prediction my friend.. And fort wayne will see cold and lots of snow blizzardlord.

    Dan

  10. winterlove says:

    To the OP, what do you see in terms of snowfall for the Lakes/Ohio Valley?

  11. arkansasdolfan says:

    @Blizzard – I think that Fort Wayne will be south of the main storm track this year and it might be frustrating for you on the snow front because of this fact. I am in the same boat in West Arkansas, so I feel your pain. However, I do think you will see a couple of good snows and several days of flurries in the air to go along with the cold rains! Although I don't know your area in regards to LES events, if you get those, then you will likely see a lot more.

    As the temp map shows, I do think your temps will be closer to average, but on the cold side of 0.

    @411 – Hopefully for my update I will be able to break down the maps by month and provide greater detail. I will admit though that my map work is not great.

  12. FatherFrost says:

    So for southern VA you expect average in both the temp dept. and the precip. dept. ?

  13. arkansasdolfan says:

    Thanks Dan, glad to have your respect buddy. :)

    @winterlove I think it will be a cold year for the Lakes/OV, just not anomolously cold. Again, with my maps I go with general anomolies after the winter is through, and just because you are not in a color doesn't mean it won't be bitterly cold. I think it will be a great year for snow up there, even for those south of my preferred storm track!

  14. winterlove says:

    That's great, because the last couple winters have been HUGE busts for the GL/OV in general. I haven't seen a particularly good winter for 2 years.

  15. arkansasdolfan says:

    I do FatherFrost, and I define average as +/- 1 in temps and +/- 2.5 inches on precip. I know it is not a sexy forecast, but I think it will be a rather normal winter for you guys (as long as you are not in far SW VA, where it I think it will be on the dry side).

  16. Flake Fan says:

    @ark, what about for just south of Kansas City? Every map I've seen puts me right on the very edge of something, it's kind of frustrating. :)

  17. arkansasdolfan says:

    Well you might be frustrated now Flake Fan, but you shold be having tons of fun this winter! Cold and in what will be my bullseye for above normal snowfall once the map comes out. Being to the north of my stormtrack means very good things for you my friend.

    BTW, KC is a wonderful city!

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