MY FINAL AUTUMN 2010 NATIONAL OUTLOOK!

Posted By: FatherFrost  Posted On: Aug 29th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

Well kids, this year so far has been one heck of an extreme weather ride. From extreme cold to extreme hot, extreme snows to extreme drought, winter storms to hurricanes…And now, Summer is nearing an end. The heat is dying, the nights are getting noticeably longer, fall colour will soon be in full swing, etc. So now, I present you all with my final outlook for this Fall:

National Temperatures:

National Precipitation:

TEXT FORECAST:

- I expect a warm Fall across the Central and Deep South. Also the Gulf Coast, deep southern plains, and southwest.

- I expect things to start getting pretty cold in the far northern sections of Maine, the Lakes, northern Apps, northern OV, N. Plains, and the PNW.

- I expect the the Lakes to begin cranking out good amounts of LES and LER.

- This is the time when the La Nina will peak, maxing out at upper end moderate to lower end strong status. It will then begin to weaken slowly but steadily by very late Fall/Early winter.

- Because of this I believe that there will be a temperature battlezone between the cold in the northern tier and the warm in the southern tier. This central region which includes the Atlantic Seaboard, Mid-Atlantic, SNE, upper fringes of the South, lower OV, and parts of the Central Plains will see their temperatures becoming much more variable. A couple of days could be + 5 or _+10 and then for the next few days it could be -5 or -10. I firmly believe that this will be the common theme this Autumn and it will seem as if Nature is confused.

- The PNW, around the Lakes, and N. Maine will be wet this Fall, with a vast area stretching from the lower PNW to the N. Plains down through the lower Lakes, OV, Apps, and up the far inland areas of the NE turning wetter and stormier. This is due to more Pacific storms, LES, Apps Runners, and clipper storms of an increasing amount.

- The Gulf Coast, Southeast Coast and up the eastern seaboard will see things turning wetter early on due to tropical moisture, severe wx, etc. And while not terribly likely, we CANNOT rule out the possibility of a Nor'Easter as they begin to happen more and more during the Fall months. This region will be drying out by mid Fall as the Hurricane Season begins to die down and cooler air reduces the amount of severe wx. Then by late Fall/Early winter this region could turn briefly wetter again. This is especially true for the eastern and northern sections (NC, VA, NJ, DE, MD, NY, PA, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME). This is one of two windows for places such as NC, VA, NJ, MD, and DE to get wintry weather.

- I expect the Rockies to start getting good snows soon, probably October which is when snow usually starts to fall in that area. But I expect the snowpack there to rapidly reappear this Fall and remain very healthy throughout Winter. An early starting ski season, IMO, seems like a very real possibility.

- I expect a variable NAO, AO, and PNA.

- Tropical activity will continue until early October after that I think things begin to die down.

- I expect the N. Hemisphere Ice extent and snowpack to rebound quickly this Fall, which will lead to stronger cold snaps down the road.

- I expect volcanic activity to continue to flare off and on while solar activity will fluctuate, remaining low on average though.

- ONE VERY IMPORTANT THING I EXPECT: I expect an increasingly progressive pattern with a notable lack of blocking. This means that I expect no LONG-TERM or LONG-LASTING above average temps or below average temps for MOST. Any long lasting cold will be confined to the far Northern tier and any above normal temps to the deep south, gulf coast, and southwest.

  1. Grandin says:

    Hmmmm.  I like the LES in my area. Do u see a big cool down in sept fatherfrost or no> if not please explain..

    Dan

  2. winterlove says:

    Do you see winter starting early possibly in late fall in the GL/OV?

  3. FatherFrost says:

    Grandin said:

    Hmmmm.  I like the LES in my area. Do u see a big cool down in sept fatherfrost or no> if not please explain..

    Dan


    It's funny you mention it Dan. :)

    Over at AccuWeather I was perusing the 15 day for my town. On September 10th it has a high of 73 DEGREES!!! Now, understand the 15 day forecast changes WILDLY EVERY DAY. lol. However, I expect the first significant cool down (which happens every year and usually in September) to happen in the very near future. So, while the 15 day isn't very consistent, I'm glad it is dropping subtle hints that I might be on to something. :D

  4. FatherFrost says:

    winterlove said:Do you see winter starting early possibly in late fall in the GL/OV?


    Yes, there's a good chance of it.

  5. Grandin says:

    FatherFrost said:

    Grandin said:

    Hmmmm.  I like the LES in my area. Do u see a big cool down in sept fatherfrost or no> if not please explain..

    Dan


    It's funny you mention it Dan. :)

    Over at AccuWeather I was perusing the 15 day for my town. On September 10th it has a high of 73 DEGREES!!! Now, understand the 15 day forecast changes WILDLY EVERY DAY. lol. However, I expect the first significant cool down (which happens every year and usually in September) to happen in the very near future. So, while the 15 day isn't very consistent, I'm glad it is dropping subtle hints that I might be on to something. :D


    Heck ya dude i think your right as allways u are a good weatherman just like the rest on here fatherfrost. and i was just looking up my town too on accuweather and it's hinting to a cool down as well. im ready for one the end of summer2010 as we know it are coming to an end. =)

    Dan

  6. TheMaineMan says:

    You know, I was thinking of posting a final autumn outlook map of my own, but my thoughts match your's so closely at this point that I'll just say I almost completely agree with you.

    My only change would be including more of the western US in your cold temperature tier. :)

  7. TheMaineMan says:

    Fatherfrost I forgot to ask in my last post, when do you think the temperature here around Augusta, ME will go back below 40 for the first time this autumn?

  8. FatherFrost says:

    TheMaineMan said:

    You know, I was thinking of posting a final autumn outlook map of my own, but my thoughts match your's so closely at this point that I'll just say I almost completely agree with you.

    My only change would be including more of the western US in your cold temperature tier. :)


    Wow. Glad we're in agreement. ;)

    I do expect a larger area of cold in the west. I'm just not that good with the climo of the western states yet so I left it as EC to be on the safe side. And for my summer forecast verification:

    I predicted above normal temperatures for most of the nation. I think the only area I was off on was Maine, which is hard to forecast anyway. Lol. Overall, I give my Summer Temp forecast a B.

  9. FatherFrost says:

    Fatherfrost I forgot to ask in my last post, when do you think the temperature here around Augusta, ME will go back below 40 for the first time this autumn?

    I would say late this coming month. Maybe mid month if we get a really strong blast of Autumn air. :)

  10. Grandin says:

    u nailed the 2010 summer temp map right on the head fatherfrost. we got a toasty summer right now it's 93 out when just the other day it was in the low 70's. but next weekend there saying it will cool down again.. back into the lower to mid 70's

    Dan

  11. arkansasdolfan says:

    Brother, I completely and totally agree with you, I am not really glad I didn't do a fall forecast with my winter because it would have ended up being a less impressively designed map. I especially like how you characterize my area being highly variable, because that is going to be strongly evident here in West Arkansas.

    Very nice work and a great forecast!

  12. Grandin says:

    Hey fatherfrost they say a thaw will come in january. and winter will be back in febuary and last well into april,, how big  will the thaw be?

    dan

  13. The Rickster says:

    Well, thaws in S.C. usually make temps spike into the 60s-70s for a week or two. Sometimes it MIGHT get into the lower 80s, but thats a little uncommon. Mainly just the 60s and 70s from my experiances.

  14. winterlove says:

    “Thaws” in Ohio are usually temps in the 40s-50s. Sometimes 60s but typically once it turns winter here, it stays that way for the most part.

  15. Grandin says:

    winterlove said:”Thaws” in Ohio are usually temps in the 40s-50s. Sometimes 60s but typically once it turns winter here, it stays that way for the most part.


    same here when thaws come we get into the 40's but i hope it doesnt melt all the snow whic i dont think it would. and dang rick yer thaws are scary!

    Dan

  16. FatherFrost says:

    Grandin said:

    Hey fatherfrost they say a thaw will come in january. and winter will be back in febuary and last well into april,, how big  will the thaw be?

    dan


    Yes, much of the nation I believe will experience a thaw in January. It wont be a total meltdown, pun intended…but it could turn fairly mild across the South, central and southern plains, MS River Valley, OV, Mid-Atlantic, and SNE for a while. Then winter will make a comeback in February. Winter will not last into april. It will seem that way though as I expect a cold, muddy, wet, soggy pattern to dominate the spring next year.

  17. Grandin says:

    FatherFrost said:

    Grandin said:

    Hey fatherfrost they say a thaw will come in january. and winter will be back in febuary and last well into april,, how big  will the thaw be?

    dan


    Yes, much of the nation I believe will experience a thaw in January. It wont be a total meltdown, pun intended…but it could turn fairly mild across the South, central and southern plains, MS River Valley, OV, Mid-Atlantic, and SNE for a while. Then winter will make a comeback in February. Winter will not last into april. It will seem that way though as I expect a cold, muddy, wet, soggy pattern to dominate the spring next year.


    what about summer 2011 just a rough guess bro? i hear it will be nothing like this summer at all. summer 2011 will be like summer 2009 if not cooler and wetter? and ok ty for the thaw comment..

    Dan

  18. FatherFrost says:

    Grandin said:

    FatherFrost said:

    Grandin said:

    Hey fatherfrost they say a thaw will come in january. and winter will be back in febuary and last well into april,, how big  will the thaw be?

    dan


    Yes, much of the nation I believe will experience a thaw in January. It wont be a total meltdown, pun intended…but it could turn fairly mild across the South, central and southern plains, MS River Valley, OV, Mid-Atlantic, and SNE for a while. Then winter will make a comeback in February. Winter will not last into april. It will seem that way though as I expect a cold, muddy, wet, soggy pattern to dominate the spring next year.


    what about summer 2011 just a rough guess bro? i hear it will be nothing like this summer at all. summer 2011 will be like summer 2009 if not cooler and wetter? and ok ty for the thaw comment..

    Dan


    I would tend to agree, cooler and wetter, less SEVERE weather but more rain overall. Less hurricanes most likely. ;)

  19. The Rickster says:

    Works for me in the hurricane catagory.

  20. Grandin says:

    heck ya works for me too on the hurrcaine thing. and the cool summer is allright too  i love the rain and fog thing makes it look spooky.  i love the heat but im burned out on the heat i need another cool summer for sure haha.. but im glad u agree with me on that fatherfrost cuz i was looking at models and seenthat and some of my friends said too summer 2011 will be alot cooler and more rainy

    Dan

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