Well kids, this year so far has been one heck of an extreme weather ride. From extreme cold to extreme hot, extreme snows to extreme drought, winter storms to hurricanes…And now, Summer is nearing an end. The heat is dying, the nights are getting noticeably longer, fall colour will soon be in full swing, etc. So now, I present you all with my final outlook for this Fall:
National Temperatures:
National Precipitation:
TEXT FORECAST:
- I expect a warm Fall across the Central and Deep South. Also the Gulf Coast, deep southern plains, and southwest.
- I expect things to start getting pretty cold in the far northern sections of Maine, the Lakes, northern Apps, northern OV, N. Plains, and the PNW.
- I expect the the Lakes to begin cranking out good amounts of LES and LER.
- This is the time when the La Nina will peak, maxing out at upper end moderate to lower end strong status. It will then begin to weaken slowly but steadily by very late Fall/Early winter.
- Because of this I believe that there will be a temperature battlezone between the cold in the northern tier and the warm in the southern tier. This central region which includes the Atlantic Seaboard, Mid-Atlantic, SNE, upper fringes of the South, lower OV, and parts of the Central Plains will see their temperatures becoming much more variable. A couple of days could be + 5 or _+10 and then for the next few days it could be -5 or -10. I firmly believe that this will be the common theme this Autumn and it will seem as if Nature is confused.
- The PNW, around the Lakes, and N. Maine will be wet this Fall, with a vast area stretching from the lower PNW to the N. Plains down through the lower Lakes, OV, Apps, and up the far inland areas of the NE turning wetter and stormier. This is due to more Pacific storms, LES, Apps Runners, and clipper storms of an increasing amount.
- The Gulf Coast, Southeast Coast and up the eastern seaboard will see things turning wetter early on due to tropical moisture, severe wx, etc. And while not terribly likely, we CANNOT rule out the possibility of a Nor'Easter as they begin to happen more and more during the Fall months. This region will be drying out by mid Fall as the Hurricane Season begins to die down and cooler air reduces the amount of severe wx. Then by late Fall/Early winter this region could turn briefly wetter again. This is especially true for the eastern and northern sections (NC, VA, NJ, DE, MD, NY, PA, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, ME). This is one of two windows for places such as NC, VA, NJ, MD, and DE to get wintry weather.
- I expect the Rockies to start getting good snows soon, probably October which is when snow usually starts to fall in that area. But I expect the snowpack there to rapidly reappear this Fall and remain very healthy throughout Winter. An early starting ski season, IMO, seems like a very real possibility.
- I expect a variable NAO, AO, and PNA.
- Tropical activity will continue until early October after that I think things begin to die down.
- I expect the N. Hemisphere Ice extent and snowpack to rebound quickly this Fall, which will lead to stronger cold snaps down the road.
- I expect volcanic activity to continue to flare off and on while solar activity will fluctuate, remaining low on average though.
- ONE VERY IMPORTANT THING I EXPECT: I expect an increasingly progressive pattern with a notable lack of blocking. This means that I expect no LONG-TERM or LONG-LASTING above average temps or below average temps for MOST. Any long lasting cold will be confined to the far Northern tier and any above normal temps to the deep south, gulf coast, and southwest.
I bought the FA and took a peek at the Summer 2011 map that they have… all I can say is “wow”
I think your summer forecast did verify well. You're right, my state is very hard to forecast, usually when people get it right it's by chance.I am becoming ok at it just from living here, but even I bust it constantly, as do local forecasters, lol. Ill never forget April 28, 2009 when a forecast 75 degree day turned out to be 90.
wow as in good or bad? and whats it say for my area maineman? after u answer im gonna have to wrap it up and go eat and shower and get ready for bed i gotta be up at 5am tomorrow.
Dan
nvm i found johnnys. and ya wow for sure hahaha. and ok im off later friends.
Dan
What analogs/models did you use?
Otherwise, great work 
FatherFrost your maps and Fall forecast are fantastic, as usual. Thanks for posting them.
You absolutely nailed our summer forecast. I can't remember the last time we've had such a hot summer. I suspect you are right about the Winter thaw in January. When we have a day in the 70's in Jan. frozen precipitation usually follows.
Next summer will certainly be in stark contrast to this one… that's for sure
We'll see. I'm more focused on this comeing Winter then next summer to be honest.
Im ready for it! haha
Dan
Likewise Dan. I won't mind a cooler summer at ALL. Not after a summer like this one..argh.
As I have said already, I don't use analogs because no two years are exactly alike. Plain and simple. I do look at different models such as the navy models, european models, even the CFS sometimes even though it's not that good. I dont base my forecast off of models or analog years though. I use everything from models to natural signs to the different oscillations to the trends in the climate across the country. Even solar radiation and the condition of the Arctic Ice cap gets thrown in there.
Good times Flake. Sounds like too much work to me.
Ah I see. Can you please PM/post me the link to your data soruces? Thanks bud!
Phil
I could possibly at a later date. I will when I can. Sorry for the delay.
Hey, great maps! Did you put likely from “Severe Wx Likely” over Louisiana so it looks like it is underlined on purpose?