Holy Crap!!!

Posted By: wjp2011111  Posted On: Aug 30th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

I've never, in my life, seen a La Nina this powerful this Early.  This is truly unprecidented.  WOW, Gives ya the chills!  We are now in strong Territory, and, after a pause in cooling, once the kelvin wave departs, the La Nina Peaks in OCT-NOV_DEC.

LaNina.jpg picture by phillywillie

Also, here is a picture of earl from the NASA siteLaNina.jpg picture by phillywillie

When a La Nina gets this strong this early, the pattern tends to lock pretty damn hard until the thing packs off, which would be Fenuary/March.

The SW atlantic ridge builds further, until the “ribbon” extends from Texas Oklahoma into the NE US.

  3. wjp2011111 says:
    September 2, 2010 at 7:51 pm

    J.C said:http://www.theweatherspace.com…..80810C.jpg

    Ah…forecaster Kevin Martin.  I got into a very heated argument with him awhile back, actually, it got bad enough to where he threatened a police report against me, ( LOL ).  Its all cool Now though

    His forecast is very good though, IMO :D

  4. wjp2011111 says:
    September 2, 2010 at 7:54 pm

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I can't argue with your science you presented, and very nicely done. I will say this for you Phil, you certainly do have quite a bit of brain power.

    However, I really really wish you would stop broadbrushing the southern plains with warmth just because you think your analogue years all are warmer than average, really all evidence ot the contrary. I will post the same data I have twice before, and hopefully you read it this time. DJF anomolies in those four years listed.

    2007: Plus .3

    1998: Plus 3.8

    1988: Minus .9

    1973: Minus .8

    So you see, aside from 98 being the outlier, temps were pretty close to average (to almost what I define as below average which is minus 1).

    Please don't continue to ignore this information man, I think it would do you well to consider it before continuing to swear by the idea that the southern plains will absolutely be warmer than normal. This is pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.

    You do have a point, and I will double check my forecast for the southern plains.

    Reason I have it warm is related to the QBO ratio, but, you bring up an interesting point analog wise, and I use analog/historical data for 70% of my outlook.

    Thanks dude ;)

    cheers

    Phil :)

  5. weather411 says:
    September 3, 2010 at 3:20 pm

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I can't argue with your science you presented, and very nicely done. I will say this for you Phil, you certainly do have quite a bit of brain power.

    However, I really really wish you would stop broadbrushing the southern plains with warmth just because you think your analogue years all are warmer than average, really all evidence ot the contrary. I will post the same data I have twice before, and hopefully you read it this time. DJF anomolies in those four years listed.

    2007: Plus .3

    1998: Plus 3.8

    1988: Minus .9

    1973: Minus .8

    So you see, aside from 98 being the outlier, temps were pretty close to average (to almost what I define as below average which is minus 1).

    Please don't continue to ignore this information man, I think it would do you well to consider it before continuing to swear by the idea that the southern plains will absolutely be warmer than normal. This is pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.

    I agree.

    The only place that looks to be truley above average for temepratures this winter will be the southeast and parts of the mid Atlantic.

  6. wjp2011111 says:
    September 3, 2010 at 3:40 pm

    weather411 said:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I can't argue with your science you presented, and very nicely done. I will say this for you Phil, you certainly do have quite a bit of brain power.

    However, I really really wish you would stop broadbrushing the southern plains with warmth just because you think your analogue years all are warmer than average, really all evidence ot the contrary. I will post the same data I have twice before, and hopefully you read it this time. DJF anomolies in those four years listed.

    2007: Plus .3

    1998: Plus 3.8

    1988: Minus .9

    1973: Minus .8

    So you see, aside from 98 being the outlier, temps were pretty close to average (to almost what I define as below average which is minus 1).

    Please don't continue to ignore this information man, I think it would do you well to consider it before continuing to swear by the idea that the southern plains will absolutely be warmer than normal. This is pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.

    I agree.

    The only place that looks to be truley above average for temepratures this winter will be the southeast and parts of the mid Atlantic.

    Dude you're gonna be warm too, Latest MEI is now -1.81, QBO has now gone positive.

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