I've never, in my life, seen a La Nina this powerful this Early. This is truly unprecidented. WOW, Gives ya the chills! We are now in strong Territory, and, after a pause in cooling, once the kelvin wave departs, the La Nina Peaks in OCT-NOV_DEC.
Also, here is a picture of earl from the NASA site
When a La Nina gets this strong this early, the pattern tends to lock pretty damn hard until the thing packs off, which would be Fenuary/March.
The SW atlantic ridge builds further, until the “ribbon” extends from Texas Oklahoma into the NE US.
one thing that is really interesting is notice all the colder water near the west coast and then the warm water near the east. It's a mirror effect and likely a big hint at the coming winter.
WJP or anyone who can answer,
Does the La Nina mean we will have a cold and snowy winter or does it mean warm? the el and la nina allways gets me confused.. and awsome pictures wjp..
Dan
weather411, your post cuts off at the end (problem with my PC). Are my posts cutting off on your screen too?
anyway the Warm AMO is definitely there, and the cold PDO will be full blown by NOV.
The QBO is spiking once again, and I think the reason the La Nina is getting SOOO intense while this occurs is a tempoary immunity as the the Basis of the stratospheric wind anomaly is east based for now, thus when it goes west based, the La Nina reaches its max (Oct thru Dec)
The Only years I can think of that had this occur are 1999 and 1973. Those are my top who analogs because the match is scary good.
The Monthly Euro is TOO warm IMO, but the picture is clear when the MEI and GLAAM matches are applied to the scenario. It is a distinct SE Ridge, from The Southern/Central Plains thru the East/Great Lakes, with a cold stormy pattern from the Pac NW thru the UpperMidwest and far northern maine.
It will be a miracle if this La Nina Is anything lower than Mod-strong this winter. This is absolutely insane.
It can Mean both. La Nina isn't necessarily the driver of our pattern, however, since this La Nina is west based (meaning the coldest waters are located in the western regions), and since the QBO (quasi benennial oscillation) is shifting basis and heading positive, this favors a positive AO (arctic oscillation), thus the warm stripe resides over 2.3 of the US.
Basically, you're in for a winter with Heavy Precip, and Temps warmer than average, with average to above average snowfall.
cheers
phil
the above average snowfall is kick butt but the warmer temps arent i dunno hope it changes to a cold cold winter. and yea yer texts do cut off on my computer too i think it's the website? thanx for answering the question too =)
Dan
how about
the pac norhwest
Colder and Much wetter than avg, above avg snowfall for the lowlands and mountains.
Dose this mean the pnw will get windstorms
Wjp, I'm still not 100% on anything anyone says yet, but what do you see for the Ohio Valley?
Of course. You're in the primespot this winter.
Definitely ice storm risk, warmer than avg, LOTS of Precip, and average snowfall.
while cold shots will ne few and far between, the ones that do hit could be record breaking.
Watch out for severe Ice storms!!!
I just can't take the 99 analog seriously with the solar being so far off (it was at Max in the winter of 99/00). HOWEVER, I will very
much agree with you (I know, crazy) that 73 looks pretty good. It is not an exact match in everything, but it is much closer than 99.
For the record, I would hardly characterize the winter of 73/74 as a blowtorch . . .
Without tooting my horn that that looks very close to the maps I put up yesterday, this is hardly the doom situation that you
make it out to be. I am afraid you are leaning too much on the extreme late 90's Nina's in your thoughts, but that is just
my thought.
EDIT: The weird structuring is so that none of it gets cut off, the board isn't aligning itself right for some reason.
Here's where I'm hoping you're wrong, but only time will tell. Forecasts here predicting “average” snowfall typically fail and we see way below average. The OV/Lakes haven't seen a great winter in a couple of years, and if this one is disappointing I'm gonna get really discouraged.
And I just wanted to add some more perspective from the Southern Plains with a month by month temp anomoly for West Arkansas from 73/74.
73 Dec. minus 1.5
74 Jan. minus .9
74 Feb. plus 1.1
Total minus .8
It's interesting you mention '99 Phil. That year we saw the Christmas Eve ice storm and it was one of the worst we've ever had then the following january had a monster snowstorm (1 foot accumulations). I suppose this year could be similar in terms of all the action coming early in the winter that winter. I expect the same to happen this winter.
Hey guys — I think we've got a fix in place for the text being pushed off the page but you'll have to keep an eye out and let us know. Ya'll are including images that are wider than the forum margin!
Farmers' Almanac Staff
What does this mean for Wisconsin. P.s. anyone getting halo reach
OK, so what does this latest model mean for southwestern CT? I keep hearing warmer temps, and average to below average precip. Does this mean that I am in for another disappointing winter? I am with winterlove, I can't stand the thought of another frigid, dry winter. While I don't mind the frigid, it's the dry that I can't stand.
So, the question is, will I be disappointed AGAIN??
Amy
The winter of 99 was notorious for severe ice storms. The southern plains through the mid atlantic is at an enhanced risk of ice storms. Warmer winters are typically the culprit. The arctic air is more shallow and warm air advection rising over the top of a cold surface pool is classic ingredients for ice storms. Watch out!
I like the 73/74 analog you bring up. Looks similar to my thoughts as well.