Holy Crap!!!

Posted By: wjp2011111  Posted On: Aug 30th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

I've never, in my life, seen a La Nina this powerful this Early.  This is truly unprecidented.  WOW, Gives ya the chills!  We are now in strong Territory, and, after a pause in cooling, once the kelvin wave departs, the La Nina Peaks in OCT-NOV_DEC.

LaNina.jpg picture by phillywillie

Also, here is a picture of earl from the NASA siteLaNina.jpg picture by phillywillie

When a La Nina gets this strong this early, the pattern tends to lock pretty damn hard until the thing packs off, which would be Fenuary/March.

The SW atlantic ridge builds further, until the “ribbon” extends from Texas Oklahoma into the NE US.

  1. plowdriver says:

    ok, so what does this mean for the northern part of western new york, like north of buffalo. Are we considered great lakes region or north east. i hope for lots of snow didn't get much last year. I plow the roads and only got about half the overtime then the norm. Also. i am new on here and just love this forum

  2. wjp2011111 says:

    Exactly :D  This year could be one hell of an ice year, big time.  Reasoning I pick 99 is due to the rate and basis of the QBO, and how it shifts from east to west based.  the PDO is an issue, but both PDOs (99 and this year) were positive during the previous winter, then the huge flip.  Global temps match 99 pretty well.  However, as arkansasdolfan said, the solar cycle is something that could REALLY screw up this analog.

    1973 matches well SST wise, but not Global Temperature wise.  This recent El Nino was a bad boy, and this La Nina will be even bigger and badder.  However, if one applies MEI analogs, and the current rate of decline (0.5 per interval) the years that come up are 1999, 1973, 1953-57 (although that seems odd that those years wouldshow up)

    Modeling seems to be leaning in the direction of the analogs, which is a good sign.  Even if the NAO is predominately negative, the Positive AO basically just wastes any potential, except for its periodic negative intervals.

    Of course NO winter can be a complete blowtorch 100% thru, well, its ALMOST impossible.  Of course I'm not talking 50's the whole way thru, a warmer than avg winter can STILL score big, and those details are still vague at this time

    cheers

    Phil :D

  3. smackdown says:

    You guys have me excited, sounds like my part of Central IL will be under the gun! WOOHOO!!! With snow comes Christmas… Who wants to join me in a chorus of “Let it snow, Let is snow, LET IT SNOW!”  Any takers?

    Laughing

  4. stuffradio says:

    smackdown said:

    You guys have me excited, sounds like my part of Central IL will be under the gun! WOOHOO!!! With snow comes Christmas… Who wants to join me in a chorus of “Let it snow, Let is snow, LET IT SNOW!”  Any takers?

    Laughing


    Walking in a winter wonder land :D

  5. smackdown says:

    stuffradio said:

    smackdown said:

    You guys have me excited, sounds like my part of Central IL will be under the gun! WOOHOO!!! With snow comes Christmas… Who wants to join me in a chorus of “Let it snow, Let is snow, LET IT SNOW!”  Any takers?

    Laughing


    Walking in a winter wonder land :D


    Ill got for that one also, lol.  …In the meadow we can build a snowman, and pretend that he is Carson Brown…Tongue out

  6. CraigOmahaWX says:

    i think a strong ridge will be in place for the southern plains, lower ohio valley, southeast and through much of the northeast..northwest of that expected stormy conditions from Kansas to Illinois to Ohio on northward…more so my prediction..and yes..my outlook includes potential for extreme ice storms for the areas just mentioned in this topic..

  7. julie40 says:

    When is the last time we had a strong La Nina?  And, didn't we have one in 2000? I remember the winter here in the southeast being very strange that year…..

  8. FatherFrost says:

    Well if the ENSO is going to continue this back-and-forth game from a strong Nina to strong Nino to strong Nina again…Looks like all of you Lakes folks and folks out west better enjoy this winter 'cause next winter's gonna SUCK. Lol. Well for you all anyway. Of course we could end up with a neutral ENSO and that would most likely make everyone from the Mississippi eastward cold and from the Plains west warm.

  9. The Rickster says:

    A neutral ENSO for next Winter FatherFrost?

  10. FatherFrost says:

    A neutral ENSO for next Winter FatherFrost?

    Well, thats getting out there in the SUPER Long-range but yes, next winter has the highest chance of coming in neutral or an El Nino again.

  11. julie40 says:

     Being hypothetical let's just say what if this la nina lost it's momentum..what would happen then??

  12. The Rickster says:

    FatherFrost said:

    A neutral ENSO for next Winter FatherFrost?

    Well, thats getting out there in the SUPER Long-range but yes, next winter has the highest chance of coming in neutral or an El Nino again.


    well i ment for this winter. im not worried about next winter just yet but from what i can tell, there is no chance of the nina slowing down. 

  13. wjp2011111 says:

    CraigOmahaWX said:i think a strong ridge will be in place for the southern plains, lower ohio valley, southeast and through much of the northeast..northwest of that expected stormy conditions from Kansas to Illinois to Ohio on northward…more so my prediction..and yes..my outlook includes potential for extreme ice storms for the areas just mentioned in this topic..


    when was the last time you forecasted a warm winter for Omaha NE? ;)

  14. snowlover says:

    stuffradio said:

    smackdown said:

    You guys have me excited, sounds like my part of Central IL will be under the gun! WOOHOO!!! With snow comes Christmas… Who wants to join me in a chorus of “Let it snow, Let is snow, LET IT SNOW!”  Any takers?

    Laughing


    Walking in a winter wonder land :D


    Let it snow, Let it snow, Let it SNOWWWWWWWWW! 

  15. Flake Fan says:

    Don't mention ice storms to me, the only time we've had a bad ice storm was 2002. 1-2 feet of snow just a couple counties north and west of me (going for several hundred miles), I was centered in the band of 1-3″ of ice and 1-3″ of snow, and couple counties SE of me 3-6″ of rain fell. Don't need another monster storm like that!

  16. golfman75 says:

    Hello everyone. My name is kevin.Im new on here.I live around memphis,tn. I had a question,in particular for wjp201111,but anyone can answer my questions for that matter. I understand the nina is getting stronger,but i wanted to know for my area,when would we see our best chances for snow /ice, if any this winter? The thing we got to keep in mind is that we will still feel the effects of the strong nina we had last winter. Im a very optimistic person when it comes to wintertime.I am always happy with that one storm.I imagine if we saw anything here, it would be arctic fronts bumping up against the se ridge. I guess we would be in the “battle zone” for icestorms per se. Ive heard this winter shouldnt be anything like 07-08 winter based on the setups in the pacific and the atlantic,unless thats utterly false. That winter wasnt to good in terms of snow and ice,or even cold air.Frown

  17. wjp2011111 says:

    golfman75 said:Hello everyone. My name is kevin.Im new on here.I live around memphis,tn. I had a question,in particular for wjp201111,but anyone can answer my questions for that matter. I understand the nina is getting stronger,but i wanted to know for my area,when would we see our best chances for snow /ice, if any this winter? The thing we got to keep in mind is that we will still feel the effects of the strong nina we had last winter. Im a very optimistic person when it comes to wintertime.I am always happy with that one storm.I imagine if we saw anything here, it would be arctic fronts bumping up against the se ridge. I guess we would be in the “battle zone” for icestorms per se. Ive heard this winter shouldnt be anything like 07-08 winter based on the setups in the pacific and the atlantic,unless thats utterly false. That winter wasnt to good in terms of snow and ice,or even cold air.Frown


    I wish I had better news (thoughts).  The way this La Nina is exploding, and the way the QBO is skyrocketing positive + shifting basis thru mid-cycle, this winter could, be worse (warmer) than 2007-2008, in your area.

    Many people have stated, “the La Nina won't be the main driver”.  That, in my view, makes absolutely no sense.  With La Nina this strong, and a super-positive QBO,,….,,, what on earth would lead to the cold winter?

  18. Grandin says:

    Oh man we had a good ice storm last year in early winter it was (sic) but a pain to move around in. hard to get grip on truck tires less u chain up.

    Dan

  19. The Rickster says:

    Dan, did you just make a Slipknot reference? I'll have to lok up the weather from back in 2007-2008 to see whats up.

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