I've never, in my life, seen a La Nina this powerful this Early. This is truly unprecidented. WOW, Gives ya the chills! We are now in strong Territory, and, after a pause in cooling, once the kelvin wave departs, the La Nina Peaks in OCT-NOV_DEC.
Also, here is a picture of earl from the NASA site
When a La Nina gets this strong this early, the pattern tends to lock pretty damn hard until the thing packs off, which would be Fenuary/March.
The SW atlantic ridge builds further, until the “ribbon” extends from Texas Oklahoma into the NE US.
hell yea i did slipknot is one of my favorite bands along with korn and lamb of god!!!! im a slipknot maggot for life! and koo koo.and ya im not into that fricking oldies stuff i like jamming out to metal like pantera there gods of metal and slipknot all of em man..
Dan
I KNEW there was a reason why you and I got along so good!
Heck yeah man. But, I do like some of the old stuff. The Police, Twisted Sister, Red Hot Chili Peppers. I play bass guitar, so I listen to stuff with some groove in it from time to time. Slipknot, Avenged Sevenfold, Lamb Of God are my main favorites. Tool is working they'er way in my list though. They'er bass player is a monster.
Hopefully, this winter will be a monster.
There's nothing wrong with a little twist in your life man if u dig the oldies i respect that and i how u dig metal too we get along good no i no why too. tool is good i like there old stuff mainly from the 90's and i play guitar when i get drunk i go into my own little world and cranck out some 20 min solos it's a beautiful thing. and u play bass nice! i liek the bass i can play the bass the guitar the drums the piano and the celo. and i felt really bad for slipknots bass player when he passed away. i sent the band a card and gave them my best wishes. i have a therey about there bass player. 'Paul Gray isnt really dead.. Hes is just up in heaven teaching god how to play bass!!'
Dan
And you'd be referring to me. Sorry that you don't agree with me but I don't appreciate the undertones. Because a few have said that before but now, I'm practically the only one sticking to my guns. So there is no one else for that to be directed at.
It's funny how even the 90's are considered old now. lol. True oldies would be the BEATLES, Steppenwolf, Led Zeppelin, Jimi Hendrix, Big Brother & The Holding Company, the Kinks, Moody Blues, the Byrds, etc.
All of those good hippie bands.
Q 13 fox said this could be the windyest and snowiest year ever but leaves here are falling already
Interesting… yeah some trees across the road from I are starting to change colour. We don't usually see it here until around mid October-November.
I don't know if we'll get any wind storms as bad as 2006 (a lot of trees at Stanley Park in Vancouver got toppled over that year). A lot of people are hoping for a lot of wind storms though. If it means getting out of a class while I'm in one of my lectures because of a power outage… I wouldn't mind one or two
The La Niña will NOT be the main driver. The –NAO signal looks way too strong to say that it won't have an effect.
Do you even know what you're saying? How can you disarm the QBO?…… Its gonna be Raging positive!!! QBO switching basis mid-flux to Western Based. In fact, its borderline positive right now.
I hope you're not talking to me Mr. Man because I never said the QBO wouldn't be positive. Never.
I think you know who I was responding to
what is west based and qbo
phil and fatherfrost remind me of me and my brother allways butting heads. u guys are the stuff. man i was outside trimming bushes with my wife and it ddint rain whats so ever today. well maybe like 20 mins. but we got jipped of the rain were in a drought or something cuz ever time it says it's gonna rain chicago/michigan get it good and allways without fail falls apart over us. i hope we dont get the dust bowl effect..
Dan
I don't think you will Dan.
It will be positive, but raging positive? The anomalies that will downwell into the QBO region are having trouble even getting to +10. RAGING positive is +12 or higher IMO… the usual peak value is +18 or so by comparison. I see a distinct possibility that this +QBO period is a weak one.
My view obvously differs, however, regardless, even a Minor/moderate strength +QBO turns the AO to positive, and in this case, sends the NAO back and forth. Thic cycle continues well into 2012.
What ever you guys are talking about doesn't sound good.
I will admit it is currently stronger than I expected it to be. HOWEVER, it is also very east-based right now (basin-wide but mainly east), with a very small area of the eastern parts of region 3 (equator at 95W) registering -3.6 or so anomalies according to the latest TAO. The only western area even close to that is a small area at the equator at 160W showing -2.2 or so. Region 3 is very obviously cooler than region 4 right now. An East-based La Niña is less stereotypical than a west-based one as far as CONUS temps go.
What the heck are you talking about? Look at the OLR anomalies, There is no dominat Basis yet.
Do you Realize how strong this thing is Getting??? Compared to 1998, 1988, and 2007, this thing cleans the clock completely
West Basis will develop due to jet 3
If you want to take this into perspective. WE Now Have a Strong La Nina (Its only september), with further strengthening to occur until November 15th or so. We Have the QBO heading fairly strong positive, if not very strong positive ( if it continues at this rate).
Tell me, where is the support for the Negative AO/NAO? The NAO I could see going negative (periodically) from time to time, but the AO? Thats just ridiculous.
To add on further, favored analogs (2007, 1988, 1998, 1973), have one thing in common… A warmer than average winter from the southern plains, to the east-central US, SE, Mid Atlantic, NE, and Eastern Lakes.
Computer modeling echos that notion. The 4 drivers here, are aligning IMO, things are very clear.
I can't argue with your science you presented, and very nicely done. I will say this for you Phil, you certainly do have quite a bit of brain power.
However, I really really wish you would stop broadbrushing the southern plains with warmth just because you think your analogue years all are warmer than average, really all evidence ot the contrary. I will post the same data I have twice before, and hopefully you read it this time. DJF anomolies in those four years listed.
2007: Plus .3
1998: Plus 3.8
1988: Minus .9
1973: Minus .8
So you see, aside from 98 being the outlier, temps were pretty close to average (to almost what I define as below average which is minus 1).
Please don't continue to ignore this information man, I think it would do you well to consider it before continuing to swear by the idea that the southern plains will absolutely be warmer than normal. This is pretty compelling evidence to the contrary.