Four STRONGEST Ninas on Record: Winter Temp Map

Posted By: arkansasdolfan  Posted On: Sep 3rd, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

I was going to post this Phil's thread, but I felt it was interesting enough for its own thread. I will say this though, Phil has been banging the drum on one of the strongest Ninas on record and it looks like he is going to be right; however, take a look at this map that shows the national picture for the four strongest on record (being 1917-18, 1955-56, 1973-74, and 1988-89).

SHOCKING!

First of all, credit goes to ElTacoMan on Eastern for the map, it is from the pay version of the free site we all use. As you can see, the realm in which we are heading looks absolutely nothing like nationwide warmth that is being predicted by many. Not saying it won't happen, but to me this is more compelling evidence that this winter will not suck (as long as you don't mind way below average snowfall).

Now for my southern plains brothers, here are the four years givens departures from average in Fort Smith, with the added 1917 number.

88/89 – Minus .9

73/74 – Minus .8

55/56 – Minus .8

17/18 – Minus 6.4

I will give you a second to let that last number sink in. It was the third coldest winter ever in Fort Smith. I mean, I couldn't even believe it, but when you put that with the others and see it in graphical form in the map, this is going to be a cold winter in the southern plains.

  1. arkansasdolfan says:

    Just to add, I hope this goes to add more credibility to what myself and 411 have been saying that this will not look like a “typical” Nina.

  2. weather411 says:

    It makes perfect sense too. The southeast is warmer where the subtropical ridge typically dominates in a La Nina pattern.

  3. FatherFrost says:

    Heck if the La Nina got so strong that it did the opposite of what it's suppose to do like that map shows then I'm all for it. lol. Dont much care about the snow as long as its cold and we can get some snow showers.

  4. glennkoks says:

    I think it is typical of most moderate to strong La Nina's.  Warm southeast, cool and snowy PNW, bitter cold heartland.  Equal chances Mid Atlantic/North East to slighty below. 

    However, its not at all what the FA is predicting. 

  5. wjp2011111 says:

    It is very interesting, and I will give you and weather411 full credit if it turns out right.

    The reason I have big doubts about this turnout…. the QBO data only goes back so far.  I know for a fact 1989 was negative QBO, and so was 1973 (personally reconsructed QBO).  However, I do not know anything about the QBO in 1955 or 1917, so I cannot “debunk” that.

    The La Nina is a player, but the QBO is just as much.  Since the QBO has now gone positive at record pace, and with the record cooling in ENSO 3 & 3.4, analogs with Moderate to strong La Nina w/ positive QBO west based distinctively show the Positive AO, the Neutral NAO, and the Explosive SE ridge.  The Modeling has gone to that, and when the EURO/Bejjing model are in alignment with the Analog data, its hard to turn away.

    Of course things can change so, if I'm wrong, then I'm wrong

    I tend to get a confidence boost when modeling and analog data support my ideas, however, there are some things that just cant be explained.

  6. glennkoks says:

    One would think that if the ridge in the east is that high and the midwest is that cold there is an area stretching from about Dallas to DC that will be a battleground of wet, icy and nastiness where the much colder than average temps meet the much warmer ones.

    If you Draw a line from Dallas to Washington DC and wrap a circle around it 100 miles southeast and 100 miles northewest and you live in that swath look out.  It may be 70 degrees one day and 15 the next.  Lots of unsettled weather where they meet.

  7. okie333 says:

    arkansasdolfan said:

    I was going to post this Phil's thread, but I felt it was interesting enough for its own thread. I will say this though, Phil has been banging the drum on one of the strongest Ninas on record and it looks like he is going to be right; however, take a look at this map that shows the national picture for the four strongest on record (being 1917-18, 1955-56, 1973-74, and 1988-89).

    SHOCKING!

    First of all, credit goes to ElTacoMan on Eastern for the map, it is from the pay version of the free site we all use. As you can see, the realm in which we are heading looks absolutely nothing like nationwide warmth that is being predicted by many. Not saying it won't happen, but to me this is more compelling evidence that this winter will not suck (as long as you don't mind way below average snowfall).

    Now for my southern plains brothers, here are the four years givens departures from average in Fort Smith, with the added 1917 number.

    88/89 – Minus .9

    73/74 – Minus .8

    55/56 – Minus .8

    17/18 – Minus 6.4

    I will give you a second to let that last number sink in. It was the third coldest winter ever in Fort Smith. I mean, I couldn't even believe it, but when you put that with the others and see it in graphical form in the map, this is going to be a cold winter in the southern plains.


    Does anyone have the AO and NAO (reconstructed, of course) for 1917-1918? Also, where can you find the reconstructed values for all of the ENSO regions (1+2, 3, 3.4, and 4)? That one's caught my attention, to say the least.

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