This winter is as hard as heck to forecast, and I can't make a week-by-week forecast for the winter until things become more clear for me. So, I'll let the maps do the talking.
Cheers
Phil 
My Winter Outlook (Changes)
You must be signed in to join the discussion. Sign in ยป
I believe this because this year has been nearly identical to those years based on what I have observed in the weather pattern across the country. You can dig up my updated prelim call. It should be on the 2nd or 3rd page. It list the factors for my winter forecast. Both analogues we saw colder temperatures through the late Fall into early Winter. Then by mid winter its was chilly but with some mild spells. Then late winter/early spring it was cold again. I expect the exact same thing this go around. A bookends winter if you will. This won't be the torch winter from hell if you live in the SE or Mid-Atlantic. Especially if you're in the mid-atlantic where temperature departures overall should range from 1 to 2 degrees above normal. with 50-75% of normal precipitation. However, if that freak snowstorm happens like it has around the same date for the past two La Nina's then that could be a different story.
thanks
Words of hope my freind. “It won't be the blowtorch from hell”.
Works for me!
Yes, not a total torch all winter. Just a little toasty for winter. Like, if you live in the region that is meteorologically classified as the SE it probably seem like an extended Fall rather than winter.
Could someone give the year of fall and winter that would be comparable to the one predicted this year? Thanks.
In winter, if it “feels” like an extended fall, its an outright blowtorch. The entire US won't torch, but we all know the SE will.
Well here in the lowland Mid-Atlantic thats not totally true. Unless is January. If it was January then feeling like Fall outside would be a torch. But anyway. I believe the SE will suffer the torch but not all winter. They will experience the cold snaps and occasional bouts of winter too. Even in 07-08 they did.
We'll see what happens. Thats all I can say.
OK, Im just going to put in my 2 cents here. I would like to know if anyone here could give me a past year that would be comparable to this upcoming fall and winter; so I could look at the temperatures…or does it even exist..?? I asked before, but it seems that “blowtorch” talking is front and center of this page.
This year will be like 08-09 grantiee you
Thank you, I will look into that.
I looked for my are NE Georgia for 08-09 and those were some pretty crazy temperature swings! Why are they so up and down, and vary so much from week to week, or even day to day?
According to the Wunderground, my area had light snow on the morning of January 20th, 2009. Some snow is better then no snow.
The Best Years to compare here are 1998-99, 1973-74, 2007-08, and 1988-89
Here is what I get when I combine those analogs
As you can see, my winter Idea is colder than what is being presented by the analogs
Thank you.
Another question I have is, How long could a cold spell last for the SE with a la nina? Thanks.
phil, when i look at the analogs for my area, 98-99 and 88-89 were both big drought years. they were horrible snow years. when i look at 73-74 and 07-08, they were great snow years way above average. with such big contrast between the winters each on different ends of the spectrum, i was wondering if u there were any major differences between the drought years and the big snow years in their set up? a couple things i picked up on were that the big snow years were during cold pdo's and the drought years had warm pdo's. i'm wondering if sun spot numbers also played a role? i'm wondering what ur thoughts on the differences r? i'm just trying to find out the driver in what caused the differences so that i can apply that to the coming years forecast.
For South Carolina, what years would be the best to compare…?
Ah, its the PDO phase. 1988-89 and 1998-99 were in the warm phase, and 1973-74 and 2007-08 in the cold phase. We're currently in the cold PDO phase,and will be for the next 19-29 years
looks like a good map but I dont think it's goin to be much warmer than slightly above normal in January in southern Illinois and Ohio valley will have much above normal precip.