This winter is as hard as heck to forecast, and I can't make a week-by-week forecast for the winter until things become more clear for me. So, I'll let the maps do the talking.
Cheers
Phil 
My Winter Outlook (Changes)
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i live in all blue and dark green,yeah!!last year was a bust for snow here in wisc,jan. was on the warm side,and mid 50's came in march and never looked back.hopefuly it will start late nov. and not stop till april!!not to excited at the posibility of severe arctic outbreaks.when your going 80 mph on a snowmobile and it's 15-20 below zero,it gets cold riding in temps like that.
maps look great I just dont know what the colors mean lol
Please make the purple go away, thank you very much!
And put more blue and green over me! Darn La Nina…
I'm with Fender- would you please post a color key?
Have a great
one!
Amy
WJP,
your maps are very well done, but no offense I really hope that you are wrong.
In looking at your maps I am assuming that the darker shades of blue for the temperature maps are colder than normal, while above normal ranges from yellow, above average to pink, break out the shorts, shrimp, and barby because its gonna be summer.
Looking at your precip maps green is lots of rain, pink it will rain sand and dust before H20
You're correct, and honestly, a part of me hopes I'm wrong as well.
Honestly i dont think how the south will get dry weather more like wet .no offense no arguments just thoughts.
then i guess the pnw wont get no wind or snow
Looks a lot like last winter for me…but of course a lot can change.
What is your current outlook for November? I average 4 inches of snow in November.
Your area should recieve well above normal snowfall, maybe 150% of average. November is vague, only because the QBO will begin to assert itself by then, so, It could go either way IMO
Hey Wjp what do you think about snow this winter up here in Toronto Canada
The only things I would change: Doubting your December forecast very much.
Too bullish with the warm temps and dryness.
And I also think it's extremely, EXTREMELY foolish not to have ALL of Virginia in the ice zone.
Where are the changes? Not trying to be offensive but this echoes what you have been saying all along. Nice mapwork but I tend to disagree on a respectfull matter.
I mean this in respect, its not polite to call my forecast and my thinking ”foolish” with absolutely nothing to back it up. I do not appriciate that. If you had posted something backing yourself up, in your words, saying I'm “too bullish and foolish”, then I would have more respect for your comments.
So, Can you explain why I'm too bullish? The warm signal this year is overwhelming, never before have we experienced a Record QBO rise and a record MEI drop at the same time, they're records for a reason. A record breaking kick-a** La Nina coupled with a Positive QBO….what would YOU expect?
Especially when the NAO is not supposed to be in the Cellar Like Last year. I am really concerned about Ice Storms throught he central Parts of the US this winter. We'll see how it all plays out but that is my number one concern. Also on of hte last times we had a La Nina there was flooding due to heavy snow and rapid snow melt across the PNW. It damaged our Vacation Home in Sun Valley. Lets hope that is not he case this year, for albeit selfish reasons.
SE Ridge should be crankin this Winter as well
Wonderful, as I'm in South Carolina. Argh.
after lookin at the temp map for the winter 2011 were in the like dark red im sad man. but were in the above avarage wet. BUT rick i got u on my over night list yer gonan get that snow hahahahaha..
Dan
No one has been around to know that therefore it's really an open forecast that could go a million different directions.
And my comments are what you make of them. If you choose to interpet them as disrespectful then that's your business but if you take them as the constructive criticism they are then you will find that we will get along much easier.
You have seen what I expect for this winter. Therefore, I feel as though I've already answered your last question. I don't disagree that Virginia will have below average snowfall HOWEVER I think we will see colder temperatures in December and any frozen precipitation we see this winter will most likely be ice or a mixed bag of snow, sleet, and freezing rain due to the warmer temperatures. Remember that 07-08 and 08-09 were both La Nina years and each year there was a large snowstorm that gave parts of the state their avg. snowfall for the whole season. I see no reason why another surprise storm couldnt happen this year either. However I fear that Ice storms are a much greater threat in ALL parts of the state.
One must also take into account that if there is a rapid build up of N. Hemisphere snow cover this Fall then that puts a damper on your call for a warm east. <— Something I learned from the Eastern Wx Forums.
Fatherfrost, please, can I ask you a few questions? I'm being as polite as I can, and I'd appriciate your response
Why do you believe we'll see colder temperatures in DEC?
Why are you comparing this year to 07-08 and 08-09? 08-09 was a weak la nina/ -QBO/-EPO, 07-8 was a moderate La Nina -EPO neutral QBO
What factors did you apply into your winter forecast?
thankyou for your time
phil