UPDATED PRELIMINARY WINTER OUTLOOK! 9.6.10 – 4:54 PM EST!

Posted By: FatherFrost  Posted On: Sep 6th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

This is my updated preliminary Winter (DJF) National Outlook for Winter 2011!

The SE, S. Plains, Gulf Coast:

- Warmer than normal temperatures. Departures ranging from +1 to as much as +4 or +5 along the Gulf.

- Below normal precipitation. Some Ice possible. A freak snow event like what happened in Georgia in the winter of 07/08

  cannot be ruled out.

 

Mid-Atlantic, Atlantic Seaboard, Apps, SNE:

- Temperatures near normal towards the SNE and Appalachians. Above normal for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Easter Seaboard. Departures ranging from +1 to +3.

- Snowfall below normal. Expect 50-95% of normal snowfall. However, a freak snowstorm like what struck the I-95 corridor in 07/08 and 08/09 cannot be ruled out. If such a storm were to occur we could see some areas get 110-125% of normal.

Ice is a very serious risk this winter in the aforementioned areas. The last major Ice Storm to strike parts of the region was over 10 years ago on Christmas Eve of '99. We are VERY overdue. So keep an eye out!

 

Have to go eat dinner right now. I'll be back with the other text forecast for the other regions in a bit. For now tell me whatcha think so far and how the map looks. :)

  1. Grandin says:

    i love your map fatherfrost but what do u see for the uppermidwest/southern lake michigan?? But as allways fatherfrost u got a good map i allways love looking at your maps bro.. Good job Garret..

    Dan

  2. FatherFrost says:

    Thanks Dan. :)

    Here is the rest of the text forecast:

    Central Plains, Mid-West, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley:

    - The Central Plains can expect near normal conditions with some areas experiencing AN temperatures and some areas BN temps. The Central Plains should expect NEAR normal precipitation as well. Just keep in mind, all it takes is one freak storm to throw that off.

    - The Mid-West can expect near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. This region can also expect near normal to above average snowfall/precipitation due to plenty of LES this year along with many more inland runners, Lake Cutters, N. Stream storms, etc. I expect blizzard conditions in this area PERHAPS a FEW times this winter.

    - The Great Lakes can expect below normal temperatures this Winter. They can also expect above average snowfall due to an increased amount of LES, plenty of Clipper Systems, etc.

    - The Ohio Valley overall can expect colder than normal and snowier than normal conditions. However, the southern fringes could experience some icing and see near normal temperatures.

     

    Desert Southwest, Rockies, and Northern Plains, PNW:

    - The Desert SW can expect a warmer than normal winter due to ridging across the southern tier. Winter will also be on the dry side this year. This could be a problem as there was a noteable lack of monsoon rains this Summer.

    - The Rockies can expect near normal to colder than normal conditions. Snowfall here should be very plentiful with the Pacific and Northern Jets raging sending many storms across the area. Ski season starts early. Ends late.

    - The Northern Plains can expect much colder than normal conditions. They can also expect much snowier than normal conditions this winter thanks to many large canadian and pacific systems affecting the area.

    - The PNW can also expect a much colder than normal winter with plentiful rain and snowfall. Large pacific storms slamming into the region along with plentiful cold air will lead to a cold, very wet winter here.

     

    Enjoy. :)

     

     

  3. smackdown says:

    Great Job! I like the detail and the fact that you explained things.  Im looking for an old fashioned winter here in IL.  So if you see old man winter, tell him im looking for him.

  4. arkansasdolfan says:

    I am so glad that you have been paying attention to my posts about the Southern Plains in regards to temps during strong Nina events. Thank you for the asterisk!

    Good forecast too!

  5. FatherFrost says:

    You are most welcome. Just a heads up guys, over at the Eastern forum the more prominent forecasters there have been taking note that when you put all of the analogue RECORD STRONG La Nina years into on of those analogue temperature maps, it seems that once Nina events get into record territory that something snaps. Meaning that after a certain point of strengthening the profile across the lower 48 actually turns colder. So if we keep up this astonishingly strong La Nina event then all hope is not lost for cold in parts of the East. Some of the years listed even featured a POSITIVE AO and some of them even a positive NAO and the mid-atlantic still managed negative departures of -1 to -1.5…Some food for thought. :)

  6. wjp2011111 says:

    I'll be checking this forecast for accuracy all winterTongue outTongue outTongue out

  7. FatherFrost says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I'll be checking this forecast for accuracy all winterTongue outTongue outTongue out


    This isn't my final forecast sir.

    I will be checking yours as well. I'm sorry that it bothers you that my forecasting method is not like yours.

  8. catsdabest says:

    I agree with these :) Good job on the maps !Laughing

  9. TheMaineMan says:

    Still one of the forecasts I agree with most at this point.

  10. wjp2011111 says:

    FatherFrost said:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I'll be checking this forecast for accuracy all winterTongue outTongue outTongue out


    This isn't my final forecast sir.

    I will be checking yours as well. I'm sorry that it bothers you that my forecasting method is not like yours.


    All in fun…… relax and enjoy winter 2010-2011! :D

  11. The Rickster says:

    I like the map. I'm in the “ice” area…but oh well.

  12. nathanielwolf says:

    i think that overall it is too warm. Mainly in part do to the uplift that will be left over from the hurricane season. This will cause troughs to dig in over the first half through the middle of the winter, and will cause lots of cold. But for the second half of winter the same pattern that will bring the cold, will bring warmth. That's because once all the negative heights in the Caribbean are gone there wont be anything to pull troughs down.

    so basically a major shift will occur sometime in mid to late January, the places that were warm(the west) and the places that were cold(everywhere else) will flip places so the west will be cold and the rest will be warm, this shift will be most dramatic around the great lakes, which could go from(relative to averages) the -5 to -10 range in late November and December, to +5 to +10 in february and January. The least noticable change will be in the California area.

    Here is a link to my forecast: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..2_XuEaVh8Y

    Thanks! Smile  Altho in my opinion too warm i still ove to see people making there own forecast, and working on it so that the have a better understanding of the weather.

  13. snoopystar19 says:

    FatherFrost said:

    Thanks Dan. :)

    Here is the rest of the text forecast:

    Central Plains, Mid-West, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley:

    - The Central Plains can expect near normal conditions with some areas experiencing AN temperatures and some areas BN temps. The Central Plains should expect NEAR normal precipitation as well. Just keep in mind, all it takes is one freak storm to throw that off.

    - The Mid-West can expect near normal to slightly below normal temperatures. This region can also expect near normal to above average snowfall/precipitation due to plenty of LES this year along with many more inland runners, Lake Cutters, N. Stream storms, etc. I expect blizzard conditions in this area PERHAPS a FEW times this winter.

    - The Great Lakes can expect below normal temperatures this Winter. They can also expect above average snowfall due to an increased amount of LES, plenty of Clipper Systems, etc.

    - The Ohio Valley overall can expect colder than normal and snowier than normal conditions. However, the southern fringes could experience some icing and see near normal temperatures.

     

    Desert Southwest, Rockies, and Northern Plains, PNW:

    - The Desert SW can expect a warmer than normal winter due to ridging across the southern tier. Winter will also be on the dry side this year. This could be a problem as there was a noteable lack of monsoon rains this Summer.

    - The Rockies can expect near normal to colder than normal conditions. Snowfall here should be very plentiful with the Pacific and Northern Jets raging sending many storms across the area. Ski season starts early. Ends late.

    - The Northern Plains can expect much colder than normal conditions. They can also expect much snowier than normal conditions this winter thanks to many large canadian and pacific systems affecting the area.

    - The PNW can also expect a much colder than normal winter with plentiful rain and snowfall. Large pacific storms slamming into the region along with plentiful cold air will lead to a cold, very wet winter here.

     

    Enjoy. :)

     

     


    I'm in the Ohio Valley and this looks great to me you did a great job Smile I always have family and friends ask me when the snow is coming I always tell them I ask everyone on the farmers almanac nice job great input

  14. snowlover says:

    Hello FatherFrost!  Thank you for the map that even I can understand:)  I am sorry to hear of the below normal snow for us; but it is what it is.  Hopefully something tricky will happen and turn things around for us.  I was wondering do you think that we'll have a chance for some more Christmas snow?  Even if it doesn't snow on Christmas or Christmas eve; as long as it's on the ground.  Oh well….thanks again, and have a nice evening!

  15. spellbound says:

    Nice maps, and your forecast seems to agree with what our local weathermen (woman) is saying.  My husband is still holding strong with a harsh winter for my area, he's going by what nature says it will do.   He was right last year so we will see .   When does any see the first good snow,  or storm for the mid atlantic states ??  This month or next ??   thanks, Karen

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