Upper motion and its affect on our weather pattern.

Posted By: weather411  Posted On: Sep 27th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

So we know how the ENSO will be the main driver of our weather pattern(particularly this winter) but are there any exceptions? We are experiencing one now. The reason I was so confident on this “big cooling” that has taken place across the eastern half of the country was primarily based on the imbalance in the tropics. The caribbean has been fairly nondescript this year until very recently. There is a ton of upper motion and very warm water that extends to great depths in the Caribbean and gulf of mexico. In order to balance things out we have to draw colder air over the higher latitudes southward to help erase some of this heat that has been created in order to establish balance. This recent cool front will act like clockwork and nicole will be here very soon. The ridge has shifted and has become somewhat suppressed and the northwesterly component on the eastern periphery is allowing the chilly air over the higher latitudes to be brought south. This pattern could very well last into fall and for PART of winter before the upper motion across the caribbean fades and the ENSO becomes the predominant driver rebuilding the southeast ridge.

Florida & Southeast LOOKOUT! The U.S. IS NOT out of the woods this hurricane season regarding landfalls. The next few weeks will feature a series of tropical cyclones developing in the very unstable environment over the Caribbean with Nicole being the first threat. Florida WILL be impacted by Nicole. The southeast will be paraded by tropical remnants next month and this will raise the concerns for heavy rainfall and flooding. It will be beneficient in the beginning but too much of a good thing will eventually pose problems.

Pattern Amplifies The pattern has amplified like mentioned with the ridge shifting west and becoming suppressed across the south. Displacement of walker circulation(or low pressure) across the east and northwesterly flow across the eastern periphery of the ridge will allow cooler air to work south. The ridge will bloat every now and then(in other words attempt to rebuild) but will only be smashed again by troughs building behind these tropical systems. This pattern may last through December before the upper motion fades and the ENSO dominates leading to the return of the ridge and a January warm up. However the west and northwest will cool(pretty much flipping the pattern again). This ties in with the early winter theory that myself and others have talked about with Winter making a fast approach but leaving as quickly as it came for the south and east. January will be the warmest month(by warm I mean anomaly wise. Remember averages). February amplifies and then the spring turns out cold and wet. Possibly an active south plains and southeast severe season.

Global temps to CRASH. Global warming alarmists better enjoy the spotlight while they can because global cooling is underway. Global temps over the next 10-20 years or so will fall to their coldest since the 1970's following a cold PDO and cooling AMO. Looking at the big picture this was to be expected. You have a warm AMO/PDO period you are going to warm the landmasses. Cool them you reverse. It's about the big picture people. Temperature displacement. I can get a lot more technical but I'm trying to speak english for some of you lol.

Gotta love the complicated world of weather :D Mother nature never fails to surprise.

  1. spellbound says:

    yeah I like it too. Can we keep it for winter ???? LOL

  2. arkansasdolfan says:

    Really, you couldn't move the blue just ten miles or so farther south. Innocent

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