When do u think we both will see our first snowfall? im thinking around late november. towards thanksgiving. What do u think man??
Dan
Maineman
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When do u think we both will see our first snowfall? im thinking around late november. towards thanksgiving. What do u think man??
Dan
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I think I will see my first flakes in the sky by late October, while you will see your first flakes in the sky by early November. As for accumulation on the ground, I think I see my first one in mid-November while you see your's in late November, I agree with that.
I think winter will have a great early start for you and me both. For me it's too hard to call January and February… I'm not sold on a January thaw yet, but a lot of people are predicting it so it seems likely.
I'll certainly be watching the forecast for that first mention of “chance of snow showers” which usually pops up around late October. Let me know when you see it for your area! Last year I had a small trace of snow in October, which was neat to see. Sometimes a large trough and tropical activity are the perfect combination to engineer a significant October snowstorm… although rare it can happen…
The models have been going crazy in the long range showing a wide range of possible scenarios. It's amazing how much the pattern has changed since a week ago. Upper motion FTW! lol
Oh and I like the idea of an early winter storm in November for my area… I'm starting to see potential ingredients coming together. It's very possible.
Thanks for the reply maineman. and im glad were both in agreement on our snows. And about this january thaw i dont see it going on in both our areas. i think if it will get in a warm faze it will be in the south lets say kentucky south bound something like that. maybe more north but not by much. i think the PNW/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER ENGLAND STATES where your at dude it will be cold all winter long.
Dan
For my area, I'm going out on a limb and saying between Nov 5 and Nov 20 (for 1.0″ or more only). This call has more uncertainty than most others due to the many variables that can change a snowstorm into an ice/rain storm.
Incidentally, the GFS has shown 1000-500mb thicknesses below 540 (538 to be exact) in my area for the first time this season.
Here are some maps (don't take them super-seriously; after all, it is still 12 days away):
Also, snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere has increased greatly ahead of schedule. The NH snow cover anomaly in October has often been used as a predictor of winter conditions.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/snow/
It's safe to say that summer is done for. lol. But I agree, lots of interesting things in the LR modeling lately. Not sure if I buy it all yet but it certainly has my attention.
Don't know if you looked at this Okie, but you think you have something crazy, check this out.
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.p…..h4l5k2TGxc
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.p…..h4l5k2TGxc
http://tinypic.com/usermedia.p…..h4l5k2TGxc
A significant push of colder air for the areas affected, with precip within. Too bad that it's so far away on those maps. I figured I put it on here for laughs and whatnot.
pnw will have snow early polly nov somewhere
GFS 18z is predicting a little bit of lake effect snow around October 13th/14th… maybe 1″ for my area… several inches in the snowbelt.
Waaaaaay to far out for it to handle itself yet though I think. LOL I am confident here in North Central Ohio we're going to see our first freeze or frost within the next week.
Again the GFS is showing heights of 538 for my area.
I don't trust the GFS much. It originally forecast lows into the low 30s/upper 20s for my region this weekend, and the lowest it got was 39.
What does that last map mean? I'm just inside the outter right of the green in So. IL. Is that rain? Cause I've been watching and its going to be pretty warm (well warmer than it has been the last few days) in the next 2 weeks. Our local weather guy did call for rain around the 15/16th.
Also anyone care to guess when So. Illinois will see its first snowfall? My guess, mid Dec IF we are lucky. Sometimes its Jan before we see any snow.
Julie
Read the little words on the bottom left for the answer to the first question. GFS 12Z is trying to answer the second question, but I doubt it will verify. Just interesting to see a model with a slight warm bias (the new GFS has one, though nothing like the ECMWF's) showing this forecast more than once in a few days this time of year.
Julz… since it's a Long Range, it's probably going to change 50 times before that date actually arrives. But it is nice looking to see what the computer models spit out.
To answer your question… It WAS indicating at 6pm CST on October 14th that there would be “snow” present in the amount of up to 1.5″ for the area you said you were in, with temps between 35 and 40. But keep in mind the maps are done using Zulu Time Zone, and Zulu time for EST is 5hrs ahead, CST is 6hrs ahead. So 18 Zulu is actually 1pm EST/12pm CST, and 12Z would be 7am EST/6am CST…etc. I hope I got those right, I confused myself trying to explain it. LOL
I noticed GFS was pretty reliable last year on 18z, but I dunno that it's going to be the model of choice this year. Time will tell. It's been relatively accurate for my area about 4-5 days out so far for September and the first few days of October.
Folks from VA and northern NC would love to see this verify lol
http://www.twisterdata.com/ind…..ive=false#
GFS is playing the game “Tease” it seems.