October 2010 Forecast (UJEAS Project)

Posted By: KMartin  Posted On: Sep 30th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

The project is called the UJEAS (Upper Jet Extended Analog System) and attempts to forecast an entire month based on what the atmosphere looks like at the time of initialization worldwide.

http://www.examiner.com/weathe…..as-project

  1. Grandin says:

    KMartin said:

    The project is called the UJEAS (Upper Jet Extended Analog System) and attempts to forecast an entire month based on what the atmosphere looks like at the time of initialization worldwide.

    http://www.examiner.com/weathe…..as-project


    Cool site man. this weekend were gonna have a stong cold front. Yesterday it was 76. today it's gonna be really windy and in the upper 60's. We need some rain though hope it rains soon.

    Dan

  2. KMartin says:

    What a change from the Summer huh?  We have tropical clouds and thunderstorms in Southern California today.

  3. weather411 says:

    This pretty much falls in line with my thinking…. especially for the first half of October. I'm not sure what this would mean for winter though I have heard that the October pattern can correlate to the winter pattern but I'm not sure if that would apply to this winter because of a raging ENSO event enhanced by the PDO. The upper motion in the Caribbean is largely responsible for the breaking down of the ridge across the south and east and once the effects fade later this fall the ridge may rebuild. We'll see though.

  4. Flake Fan says:

    weather411 said:


    I've heard that too, but I really don't think the ridge will rebuild.

  5. Grandin says:

    KMartin said:What a change from the Summer huh?  We have tropical clouds and thunderstorms in Southern California today.


    I hear that. and today was really sunny and nice day. but now it's cloudy and gonna rain later and a big cold front is coming form canada and will be here tonight and be cool for the weekend in the mid 50's for the day and mid to lower 40's at night our first frost might happen this weekend. when on a typical year the first frost in on or around oct 14th. so this year it may come early.

    Dan

  6. romanian says:

    Flake Fan said:

    weather411 said:


    I've heard that too, but I really don't think the ridge will rebuild.


    I don't think the high pressure ridge will rebuild because it is gona be suppresed by the Carribean Upper Motion and mainly by the Jet streams.

    God bless!

  7. wjp2011111 says:

    I differ….. IMO the ridge is CERTAIN to rebuild……I've trended even warmer with my winter idea…. its becoming obvious this winter will be top-10 warm east of the rockies

  8. FatherFrost says:

    In the east PARTICULARLY the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and New England there is a strong correlation with colder than normal Octobers leading to colder than normal Winters in these areas. Also if you see a rapid buildup of snowcover in the Fall months it correlates with a colder winter in the aforementioned areas. I tend to agree.

  9. wjp2011111 says:

    FatherFrost said:

    In the east PARTICULARLY the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and New England there is a strong correlation with colder than normal Octobers leading to colder than normal Winters in these areas. Also if you see a rapid buildup of snowcover in the Fall months it correlates with a colder winter in the aforementioned areas. I tend to agree.


    FYI, Mr. Martins UJEAS Model is predicting a Wam East, Cold West Scenario this winter.

    This isn't your ordinary winter

  10. FatherFrost says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    FatherFrost said:

    In the east PARTICULARLY the Mid-Atlantic, NE, and New England there is a strong correlation with colder than normal Octobers leading to colder than normal Winters in these areas. Also if you see a rapid buildup of snowcover in the Fall months it correlates with a colder winter in the aforementioned areas. I tend to agree.


    FYI, Mr. Martins UJEAS Model is predicting a Wam East, Cold West Scenario this winter.

    This isn't your ordinary winter


    Swallow your own medicine Phil. No, it's not a normal Winter which means that the ENSO CAN and chances are WILL behave abnormally too.

  11. weather411 says:

    I think in the end we will all be right lol.

  12. Weatherfan says:

    I have to agree with Fatherfrost about what he said earlier.  Take a look at these links that I found.

    http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…..ature=fvwp (Search for “Predicting Winter” if it doesn't work)

    Both talk about the NH snowcover.  The first one shows snowcover data that has been gathered 5 days ago up to current time.  So far, there has been siginificant increases in accumulations in areas such as Siberia and a decent extension of ice (quite noticeable too).  It can, to an extent, put a damper on how warm it gets for the eastern half of the U.S. (if I heard/read correctly).  The second link is about one particular met whose methods on predicting winter patterns is as accurate as the government forecasts for several years.  While other forecasts were calling for a mild winter, thanks to him studying the snow accumulation in Siberia, his prediction verified among most others.  It's beginning to look like it will happen again this winter. 

    Also, here's another link that talks about the Fall-Winter correlation.  Seems as though there is merit to the temperature bit, but the precipitation part is something that appears to have a small correlation.  It does, however, mention that the precipitation correlation is apparent over a certain period of time “…due to random variations.”  Not sure if this upcoming winter would be one of those years where precip. in Oct. does matter.  We'll have to wait and see.  Scroll to the last paragraph for a summary of it. (This is from an area south of Boston for those of you wondering).

    http://www.bluehill.org/climat…..lation.pdf

  13. TheMaineMan says:

    Last October was cold and wet. Winter was warm and dry. Where was the correlation? ;)

  14. Weatherfan says:

    TheMaineMan said:Last October was cold and wet. Winter was warm and dry. Where was the correlation? ;)


    lol I should've mentioned that the correlation is not going to ALWAYS guarantee everyone something just because of what happened in October, but it has happened before from time to time, so we can't discount it completely.  It's just another way to figure out the upcoming winter pattern. Smile  Also, seeing as though you're far off in the NE, there are other factors can make Maine's temperature and precipitation be much different than that of areas south of it (Like last winter). 

You must be signed in to join the discussion. Sign in ยป