Richard's center has finally positioned itself underneath deep convection and has undergone rapid strengthening from a 45mph TS to a 65mph one and additional strengthening is quite likely. However Richard took too long to organize and is running out of time to become a major hurricane. Also it appears unlikely that he will make a connection to the mid latitude trough mid-late next week as ridge building west over the GOM will likely steer Richard on a WNW path towards Belize and the Yucatan by Sunday/Monday. At this point(and depending on land interaction) I expect Richard to at least be a category 1-2 hurricane with winds of 85-105mph. By the time Richard moves into the southwest Gulf it will be in a much weaker state and increasing westerly shear will finish off the storm. To say the least I am not happy about this despite the fact I made a good call on it developing.
Pressure falls over the southeast caribbean combined with the state of the MJO(upper motion persisting from days 5-15) I see little reason why we should not see our next possible tropical cyclone. The next name on the list is Shary. Time will tell.
Progressive and high amplitude weather pattern will continue next week. Warm weather will return to the southern plains and southeast Monday through Wednesday before a respectable surge of canadian air comes surging south in assocation with mid latitude trough. Highs will fall closer or slightly below climatology and I stand strong on my idea of a trough carving out over the east to open up the month of November. It appears November will be a very different month from October with the winter pattern finally evolving. November is looking colder and colder on the CFS.
Why trust the CFS? Because for the first time since earlier this year it matches with the analogs and general idea. Notice November and December are noticeably cold across the southeast. This will be our opportunity for cold and snow this winter. While I am not quite as warm as the CFS after December the general idea is correct with the ridge taking hold across the southeast and the trough northwest. Could things change? Always. But this Winter is nothing like last year for sure.