“Richard” Too Little Too Late. November & December looking COLD

Posted By: weather411  Posted On: Oct 23rd, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

Richard's center has finally positioned itself underneath deep convection and has undergone rapid strengthening from a 45mph TS to a 65mph one and additional strengthening is quite likely. However Richard took too long to organize and is running out of time to become a major hurricane. Also it appears unlikely that he will make a connection to the mid latitude trough mid-late next week as ridge building west over the GOM will likely steer Richard on a WNW path towards Belize and the Yucatan by Sunday/Monday. At this point(and depending on land interaction) I expect Richard to at least be a category 1-2 hurricane with winds of 85-105mph. By the time Richard moves into the southwest Gulf it will be in a much weaker state and increasing westerly shear will finish off the storm. To say the least I am not happy about this despite the fact I made a good call on it developing.

Pressure falls over the southeast caribbean combined with the state of the MJO(upper motion persisting from days 5-15) I see little reason why we should not see our next possible tropical cyclone. The next name on the list is Shary. Time will tell.

Progressive and high amplitude weather pattern will continue next week. Warm weather will return to the southern plains and southeast Monday through Wednesday before a respectable surge of canadian air comes surging south in assocation with mid latitude trough. Highs will fall closer or slightly below climatology and I stand strong on my idea of a trough carving out over the east to open up the month of November. It appears November will be a very different month from October with the winter pattern finally evolving. November is looking colder and colder on the CFS.

Why trust the CFS? Because for the first time since earlier this year it matches with the analogs and general idea. Notice November and December are noticeably cold across the southeast. This will be our opportunity for cold and snow this winter. While I am not quite as warm as the CFS after December the general idea is correct with the ridge taking hold across the southeast and the trough northwest. Could things change? Always. But this Winter is nothing like last year for sure.

  1. wjp2011111 says:

    Exactly, I'm glad we have come to an agreement!!!Smile

    The current state of the MJO never supported a landfall, exceptionally in just how strong a wave it was.  The storms track will be “shoved” in a sense, then torn apart once passing the yukatan.

    As for November, things are changing quickly, and I may be over-doing the cold in the US.  Then again, I won't know a thing until the WPO settles.  The Raging EPO is a bad sign.

    PS: The CFS call for a warm alaska NW Canada is going to bust HUGE lol

  2. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    Yeah… and CFS is calling for a COLD November in Ohio. I don't see it yet, it's actually coming out right now above average temperatures in the latest models. Hmmm. I honestly don't think any model is going to be accurate this winter season, especially if you guys keep saying this is the first time La Nina has been this strong and East Based… they just don't have the “lessons” in the computers yet. LOL

  3. wjp2011111 says:

    PlowmanOhio81 said:Yeah… and CFS is calling for a COLD November in Ohio. I don't see it yet, it's actually coming out right now above average temperatures in the latest models. Hmmm. I honestly don't think any model is going to be accurate this winter season, especially if you guys keep saying this is the first time La Nina has been this strong and East Based… they just don't have the “lessons” in the computers yet. LOL


    I'm confident the east basis will fade, but the La Nina is so damn strong, theres no way it can't dominate….By MAR/APR, it may be colder than JAN lol Tongue out

  4. weather411 says:

    Richard is looking fairly impressive on Satellite. Symmetrical cloud pattern and an eye looks to be popping. I find it hard to believe that it is only 85mph. I say 100mph. Belize looks to be taking the full brunt of this one. It's a good thing this thing took long to organize or it would most likely be a category three hurricane by this point possibly 4.

    Also a question for Phil. If dominance/basis doesn't matter with this La Nina then how come you were so adamant about it being west based? More importantly why would you assume that the eastern nino regions peaked earlier when they have clearly not? Just wondering. This is def a BASIN WIDE La Nina at this point with a easterly dominance at the time being. But like you said I don't think basis matters with this one. At least we get a cold holiday season lol.

  5. wjp2011111 says:

    weather411 said:

    Richard is looking fairly impressive on Satellite. Symmetrical cloud pattern and an eye looks to be popping. I find it hard to believe that it is only 85mph. I say 100mph. Belize looks to be taking the full brunt of this one. It's a good thing this thing took long to organize or it would most likely be a category three hurricane by this point possibly 4.

    Also a question for Phil. If dominance/basis doesn't matter with this La Nina then how come you were so adamant about it being west based? More importantly why would you assume that the eastern nino regions peaked earlier when they have clearly not? Just wondering. This is def a BASIN WIDE La Nina at this point with a easterly dominance at the time being. But like you said I don't think basis matters with this one. At least we get a cold holiday season lol.


    Yep, the basis doesn't matter at all in this case.  Reason I made a Big Deal out of it…… I called it this june… and I want it to verify! lolTongue out

    I'm still confident it will go westerly, but………… its too late for me lol, I already Busted on the timing of it, so…..yep…… this sucks.

    About the eastern regions… a fluctuation in the trades due to the quick -SOI push Early SEP, Caught me off guard.  I usually see these things ahead of time, but I missed this one.

  6. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    So you think it will shift westerly by January giving Ohio the cold air towards the mid/end of January and finishing out the season with colder than normal temperatures… but in the meantime it'll be constant temperature fluctuations??

    A few years ago we had snow into the second week of May, which is highly uncommon for Ohio. Sounds like it might be another one of those years?! :-p

  7. TheMaineMan says:

    I wasn't even alive the last time my region had snow into the 2nd week of May… was in the 1970s! Although in 2007 we had a late-season April storm that had snow in shady areas through the first week… I was still in school and my class was doing an act in the outside stage we had… and we were concerned that the stage wouldn't be thawed out by our May 6 performance. ;)

    I think this winter will be quite unpredictable compared to most. It's hard to even predict the pattern two weeks out… never mind months out. I'm not really sold on much of anything yet.

  8. weather411 says:

    PlowmanOhio81 said:

    So you think it will shift westerly by January giving Ohio the cold air towards the mid/end of January and finishing out the season with colder than normal temperatures… but in the meantime it'll be constant temperature fluctuations??

    A few years ago we had snow into the second week of May, which is highly uncommon for Ohio. Sounds like it might be another one of those years?! :-p


    This La Nina is a BASIN WIDE event. There will be periods of dominace but ALL regions are cold. This is certainly an impressive ENSO event I will not lie.

    It is certainly not out of the question that many areas could have late season snows as springs following La Nina are typically cold and wet.

You must be signed in to join the discussion. Sign in ยป