From Henry Margusity

Posted By: Weatherfan  Posted On: Oct 27th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

An important post he made recently:

“Here's what concerns me. The weather pattern this October is not what I expected to see and that has implications for the winter forecast. Typically, the pattern in October tends to telegraph the winter pattern. So if you take the current pattern and extrapolate that forward, one would think that the snowy areas are going to be in two areas. One area in the East where storms hit the coast and explode and the other is the Midwest. I am not saying this will happen; it's just a concern I have right now. Let me say one thing. I think in all the winter forecasts being issued, we are assuming the typical La Nina pattern, but the pattern has not been behaving like the typically La Nina pattern. Southern California has had more rain then ever, extreme storms are hitting the Upper Midwest and next week and we have a major coastal storm developing and record heat running around the country. These are all things that one would not find in the typical La Nina pattern. So I think over the next couple of weeks, I am really going to take a look at things and may have to make an major update to the winter forecast.”

Thoughts on that?  He seems to be expecting what most people aren't for this winter.

  1. smc1254 says:

    Maybe the Farmer's Almanac's forecast is correct. I certainly differs from ever one ( almost ) I have read on this forum.

  2. okie333 says:

    Just what I've been saying all along… but “Midwest/East” means east of I-25 and north of I-40 for my thinking.

  3. weather411 says:

    This is what I have been saying all along. This WILL NOT be your typical La Nina. Why? Because there are so many different climatic drivers coming into play. La Nina obviously will not be the main(I'm not saying it won't drive the pattern at all because it will) driver of our winter pattern if October is of any example. The teleconnections is another example. The NAO and AO have remained highly variable at this point. I still expect the AO to go predominantly postive late this winter but we'll have to see how the QBO pans out.

    What's really interesting is what is coming for November. I really like my hurricane/strong La Nina analog package that I introduced to you guys in an earlier thread. Height rises are expected to develop over Alaska in a few weeks entraining with a high amplitude and progressive weather pattern. The state of the NAO will likely drive some very cold air south into the southern and eastern U.S. by mid-late November and it is not out of the question that some nasty snowstorms develop during this period. This recent storm is a prime example of what an anomalously warm surface pattern and cold upper levels can do. And this will not be the last storm of its kind. I have also been fortelling of a very dynamic weather pattern this Winter and it seems to be developing. Another winter of Extremes IS instore just in different places. Lots going on.

  4. romanian says:

    weather411 said:

    This is what I have been saying all along. This WILL NOT be your typical La Nina. Why? Because there are so many different climatic drivers coming into play. La Nina obviously will not be the main(I'm not saying it won't drive the pattern at all because it will) driver of our winter pattern if October is of any example. The teleconnections is another example. The NAO and AO have remained highly variable at this point. I still expect the AO to go predominantly postive late this winter but we'll have to see how the QBO pans out.

    What's really interesting is what is coming for November. I really like my hurricane/strong La Nina analog package that I introduced to you guys in an earlier thread. Height rises are expected to develop over Alaska in a few weeks entraining with a high amplitude and progressive weather pattern. The state of the NAO will likely drive some very cold air south into the southern and eastern U.S. by mid-late November and it is not out of the question that some nasty snowstorms develop during this period. This recent storm is a prime example of what an anomalously warm surface pattern and cold upper levels can do. And this will not be the last storm of its kind. I have also been fortelling of a very dynamic weather pattern this Winter and it seems to be developing. Another winter of Extremes IS instore just in different places. Lots going on.


    Obvously this winter will not be a ty[pical la nina year, people are just now waking up and realizing this.

    The eastern 2/3 country and PNW will certainly have a winter of extremes, maybe even some of the south, maybe all.

    God bless!

  5. wjp2011111 says:

    I think he's nuts LOL, (in a good way).  I've stated, the La Nina pattern probably won't kick in until Late DEC.

  6. romanian says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I think he's nuts LOL, (in a good way).  I've stated, the La Nina pattern probably won't kick in until Late DEC.


    It will never kick in, because the -NAO, -AO will not let it for the northern tier of the country ( northern N.C and north). For the south it will, but it will average to slightly above average temperatures. God bless!

  7. trency911 says:

    romanian said:


    It will never kick in, because the -NAO, -AO will not let it for the northern tier of the country ( northern N.C and north). For the south it will, but it will average to slightly above average temperatures. God bless!


    Isn't North Carolina considered part of the South.

  8. romanian says:

    trency911 said:

    romanian said:


    It will never kick in, because the -NAO, -AO will not let it for the northern tier of the country ( northern N.C and north). For the south it will, but it will average to slightly above average temperatures. God bless!


    Isn't North Carolina considered part of the South.


    Doesn't matter, the negative nao and ao will bring tons of artic fronts and troughs this winter which will make it a very cold winter even if we are in a la nina. God bless!

  9. TheMaineMan says:

    I don't see why this La Nina will not behave like a “typical” La Nina, whatever that really means. The pattern will obviously not be the same all winter, it rarely ever is, but I think the dominant pattern is still going to be colder anomolies to the west and north, and warmer anomalies in the south and east. I don't know yet if this October pattern (what would that be? October has been an EXTREMELY variable month, I have not yet observed any kind of an October “pattern”) will lead to the winter pattern (highly variable? I think this winter will be highly variable, so it wouldn't surprise me if that verifies.

    I've seen plenty of years where October and the winter have no correlation whatsoever, so I don't use it very much in my winter forecast. It plays a role, but a minor one.

  10. wjp2011111 says:

    romanian said:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I think he's nuts LOL, (in a good way).  I've stated, the La Nina pattern probably won't kick in until Late DEC.


    It will never kick in, because the -NAO, -AO will not let it for the northern tier of the country ( northern N.C and north). For the south it will, but it will average to slightly above average temperatures. God bless!


    facepalm.png

    Should I respond to this or not?

  11. okie333 says:

    weather411 said:

    This is what I have been saying all along. This WILL NOT be your typical La Nina. Why? Because there are so many different climatic drivers coming into play. La Nina obviously will not be the main(I'm not saying it won't drive the pattern at all because it will) driver of our winter pattern if October is of any example. The teleconnections is another example. The NAO and AO have remained highly variable at this point. I still expect the AO to go predominantly postive late this winter but we'll have to see how the QBO pans out.

    What's really interesting is what is coming for November. I really like my hurricane/strong La Nina analog package that I introduced to you guys in an earlier thread. Height rises are expected to develop over Alaska in a few weeks entraining with a high amplitude and progressive weather pattern. The state of the NAO will likely drive some very cold air south into the southern and eastern U.S. by mid-late November and it is not out of the question that some nasty snowstorms develop during this period. This recent storm is a prime example of what an anomalously warm surface pattern and cold upper levels can do. And this will not be the last storm of its kind. I have also been fortelling of a very dynamic weather pattern this Winter and it seems to be developing. Another winter of Extremes IS instore just in different places. Lots going on.


    Mainly agree, but still think the AO average will be around -1.0; -2.0 avg not outside the realm of possibility.

    Also, are you suggesting Oklahoma will get a 955 coming through early this winter?

  12. spellbound says:

    WJP, does that mean a green Christmas ???  I  would really hate a green Christmas.    AND I plan on blaming YOU if we have one.  Why?  Just because I wanna, blame has to go somewhere. 

  13. wjp2011111 says:

    spellbound said:

    WJP, does that mean a green Christmas ???  I  would really hate a green Christmas.    AND I plan on blaming YOU if we have one.  Why?  Just because I wanna, blame has to go somewhere. 


    lol, I'm sure you'll have snow by then.  SE ridge gets in JAN, Its really a tough call this year.

  14. glennkoks says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    romanian said:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I think he's nuts LOL, (in a good way).  I've stated, the La Nina pattern probably won't kick in until Late DEC.


    It will never kick in, because the -NAO, -AO will not let it for the northern tier of the country ( northern N.C and north). For the south it will, but it will average to slightly above average temperatures. God bless!


    facepalm.png

    Should I respond to this or not?


    Nope!

  15. romanian says:

    smc1254 said:Maybe the Farmer's Almanac's forecast is correct. I certainly differs from ever one ( almost ) I have read on this forum.


    If Europe is projected for a cold winter than the U.S East Coast will be cold and snowy, Siberian Snowcover is great this year.

    PLus a negative NAO, AO supports this.

    God bless!1

  16. romanian says:

    smc1254 said:Maybe the Farmer's Almanac's forecast is correct. I certainly differs from ever one ( almost ) I have read on this forum.


    If Europe is projected for a cold winter than the U.S East Coast will be cold and snowy, Siberian Snowcover is great this year.

    PLus a negative NAO, AO supports this.

    God bless!1

  17. Grandin says:

    Your boy henry nailed it. i agree with em on alot of what he says. the rains have came and gone though for southern calif./southwest for the fall/winter though. And if you dont mind me asking who is Henry Margusity?

    Dan

  18. Weatherfan says:

    Apparently, some folks were confused when they read his post, so he has put out 3 things here:

    http://www.accuweather.com/blo…..theast.asp

  19. weather411 says:

    okie333 said:

    weather411 said:

    This is what I have been saying all along. This WILL NOT be your typical La Nina. Why? Because there are so many different climatic drivers coming into play. La Nina obviously will not be the main(I'm not saying it won't drive the pattern at all because it will) driver of our winter pattern if October is of any example. The teleconnections is another example. The NAO and AO have remained highly variable at this point. I still expect the AO to go predominantly postive late this winter but we'll have to see how the QBO pans out.

    What's really interesting is what is coming for November. I really like my hurricane/strong La Nina analog package that I introduced to you guys in an earlier thread. Height rises are expected to develop over Alaska in a few weeks entraining with a high amplitude and progressive weather pattern. The state of the NAO will likely drive some very cold air south into the southern and eastern U.S. by mid-late November and it is not out of the question that some nasty snowstorms develop during this period. This recent storm is a prime example of what an anomalously warm surface pattern and cold upper levels can do. And this will not be the last storm of its kind. I have also been fortelling of a very dynamic weather pattern this Winter and it seems to be developing. Another winter of Extremes IS instore just in different places. Lots going on.


    Mainly agree, but still think the AO average will be around -1.0; -2.0 avg not outside the realm of possibility.

    Also, are you suggesting Oklahoma will get a 955 coming through early this winter?


    Key word: PREdominant. ;)

    And lol no I'm not suggesting a storm of that magnitude coming through Oklahoma. Not that it could never happen, but no I'm not predicting something like that. What I was saying is that dynamic systems SIMILAR to that nature will be abundant this winter with weather extremes.

  20. okie333 says:

    weather411 said:

    okie333 said:

    weather411 said:

    This is what I have been saying all along. This WILL NOT be your typical La Nina. Why? Because there are so many different climatic drivers coming into play. La Nina obviously will not be the main(I'm not saying it won't drive the pattern at all because it will) driver of our winter pattern if October is of any example. The teleconnections is another example. The NAO and AO have remained highly variable at this point. I still expect the AO to go predominantly postive late this winter but we'll have to see how the QBO pans out.

    What's really interesting is what is coming for November. I really like my hurricane/strong La Nina analog package that I introduced to you guys in an earlier thread. Height rises are expected to develop over Alaska in a few weeks entraining with a high amplitude and progressive weather pattern. The state of the NAO will likely drive some very cold air south into the southern and eastern U.S. by mid-late November and it is not out of the question that some nasty snowstorms develop during this period. This recent storm is a prime example of what an anomalously warm surface pattern and cold upper levels can do. And this will not be the last storm of its kind. I have also been fortelling of a very dynamic weather pattern this Winter and it seems to be developing. Another winter of Extremes IS instore just in different places. Lots going on.


    Mainly agree, but still think the AO average will be around -1.0; -2.0 avg not outside the realm of possibility.

    Also, are you suggesting Oklahoma will get a 955 coming through early this winter?


    Key word: PREdominant. ;)

    And lol no I'm not suggesting a storm of that magnitude coming through Oklahoma. Not that it could never happen, but no I'm not predicting something like that. What I was saying is that dynamic systems SIMILAR to that nature will be abundant this winter with weather extremes.


    I'd settle for another 994 on 12/24 :)

    Anyway, explain PREdominant… What do you expect the AVERAGE AO to be (meaning, not necessarily which side of zero it's in most of the time)? How dynamic will the AO be (as in, standard deviation more or less than normal)?

    I'd say average -1.0 but stays around +0.5 to -0.5 except when it's down in the -3s to -5s. Average could be as low as -2.0; calling for a positive average would be a risky move in my opinion.

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