Been busy the past few days…but here's is the discussion to go with my final winter outlook for the DJF time-frame:
Atmospheric Setup:
- A predominantly negative NAO.
- A variable AO.
- A slightly negative QBO.
- A variable EPO.
- A negative PDO.
- A weakening +AMO.
- A neutral PNA.
- A moderate to strong East/Central based La Nina…
- Stronger Arctic & Pacific Jets, weaker STJ.
- SW & SE Ridging. At time the SE ridge may “flex its muscles” and spread further northward.
Other Factors:
- The La Nina should still register as moderate to strong for the winter, however as people on SEVERAL weather forums have pointed out…There appears to be some weakening in western regions. IF the La Nina will transition to a west-bases as the Winter progresses, has yet to be seen.
- Solar activity has been and will remain persistently lower than normal.
- N. Hemisphere snowcover has been doing fair, on average.
- Over the past couple of Winters we've entered into a multi-decadal cycle where the North Atlantic Oscillation tends to average on the negative side most often. This will continue.
- And finally, there is the possible effects of any volcanic ash and whatnot. While effects on the weather this Winter is not likely, anything is possible.
New England:
- Temperatures: Temperatures will average on the colder side of things in northern New England. Departures ranging from -2 to -4 degrees fahrenheit. In southern New England, things will be much more normal with temperature departures ranging from -1 to +1. This may even need to be stretched a little more to -1.5 to +1.5.
- Precipitation: Precipitation will average above normal in this region, mostly falling in the form of snow. Departures will range from 100% to as much as 150% above normal!
Mid-Atlantic:
- Temperatures: Temperatures in this region will average near normal to slightly above normal. This is due to the variable effects of a SE ridge. Departures will range from -1 to +1 in the Northern Mid-Atl to +1 to +2 in the southern Mid-Atl. Conditions will be variable overall here. For example, one day it may be 39, the next day 63.
- Precipitation: Precipitation will average near normal in the northern Mid-Atl to slightly below normal in the southern areas. Most precipitation will most likely fall as sloppy mixes. There will be snow at times. The risk of Ice Storms in this area is HIGH this season. Precipitation departures will range from 85-100% in the north to 75-95% in the south.
Southeast:
- Temperatures: Temperatures will average from slightly above average to much above average. This is thanks to persistent SE Ridging through much of the January and February time-frame. Departures will range from +1 to +2 in the northern areas to +3 to +5 in the Deep South and Gulf Coast.
- Precipitation: Precipitation in this area will average from slightly below normal to much below normal with drought persisting in areas further south. Departures overall will range from 75-95% in the north to 50% of normal or lower the further south you go. The exception will be the mountains where near normal snowfall is possible. Most precipitation would fall as rain or sloppy mixes HOWEVER, snow is possible at times. Along the Gulf Coast snowfall is N/A because their average snowfall is less than 0.5″.
Mid-Western & Central areas coming next…
Great Lakes/OV:
- Temperatures: Temperatures in this region will average near normal to much below normal on the very western fringes. Severe Arctic outbreaks this season will cause temperatures in the single digits with wind-chills WAY below zero. Departures will range from -1 to +1 over the OV to -2 to -4 across much of the region. On the western egde of the area though, departures could be as much as 6 degrees below normal!
- Precipitation: Precipitation in this area will average near normal to slightly above normal over the OV. Elsewhere, precipitation will be above normal to much above normal in the northern and western areas of the Lakes. Precipitation will fall as all snow 95% of the time. This will truly be a great Lake-Effect season! Departures will range from 125-150% of normal over most areas. However, northern Minnesota could be lucky enough to get as much as 175% of normal or more! Flooding could be a serious issue come Spring!
Central Plains:
- Temperatures: Temperatures will average near normal overall but slightly below normal on the northern fringes of this region. Temperatures have the potential to become downright frigid as this area will most likely get hit with several SAO's (Severe Arctic Outbreaks) just like much of the central and western US will. Departures will range from -1 to +1 over much of the region. On the northern edges there could be departures as much as 2 degrees below normal.
- Precipitation: Precipitation overall, will be near normal. However, due to Apps Runners forming in the plains and turning up the mountains there could be a swath of slightly above normal snow. This depends on the frequency of these types of storms though. Overall departures will range from 85-100% of normal. However, if we see a large amount of the aforementioned storms, there could be areas that see 105% of normal. Maybe 110%. Flooding in the spring MAY be an issue.
Southern Plains:
- Temperatures: Overall, temperatures will average near normal in the north to above normal in the south. Departures will range from -1 to +1 for places like Oklahoma, Kansas, MO, and Arkansas. In the Arklatex area and over much of central and southern TX temperatures could be as much as +3 to +5 above normal.
- Precipitation: Precipitation will average near normal over northern areas such as OK, KS, AR, and the TX Pandhandle. Departures here will range from 85-100% of normal. However, as mentioned before…if the are an excessive amount of storms forming here then running up the Apps, there could be a swath of AN snowfall over OK and KS. Ice storms are a risk over the Arklatex.
Western regions coming later…
this is snowstorms snowfall map from accuweather
Well I don't mean this rude, but please do not spam up my regional winter discussion thread with other outlooks. I have an AccuWeather account. If I want to see Snowstorms outlook then I will look at it there (which I have already done).
Back on topic.
sorry
Bump.
Man i hope to god this forecast for the great lakes region come true ill cross my fingers and hope the best for sure. Thanx for giving me some hope yet Garret.. And J.C is only 15 man be cool he was just trying to get in the convert man.
Dan
Southern Plains:
- Temperatures: Overall, temperatures will average near normal in the north to above normal in the south. Departures will range from -1 to +1 for places like Oklahoma, Kansas, MO, and Arkansas. In the Arklatex area and over much of central and southern TX temperatures could be as much as +3 to +5 above normal.
- Precipitation: Precipitation will average near normal over northern areas such as OK, KS, AR, and the TX Pandhandle. Departures here will range from 85-100% of normal. However, as mentioned before…if the are an excessive amount of storms forming here then running up the Apps, there could be a swath of AN snowfall over OK and KS. Ice storms are a risk over the Arklatex.
This is the first time I've ever heard Kansas and Missouri classified as Southern Plains. Usually, I would think of places south of 30lat would be southern plains, which is south of Kansas and Missouri. But it's nice to know where you put my state now!
Bump.
When do you see the first snows starting for the east and mid atlantic ??
POSSIBLY by the last few days of this month into December. Be patient, it will get here.
Blah, I hate waiting !!!!! LOL
What is… “Bump” all about??
When your thread gets burried beneath all the others, you post something to 'bump' it back up so more people will see it!
Ahhh… gotcha.
i live in mineral country, west virginia how bad will it be this winter