LRC Winter Forecast

Posted By: Flake Fan  Posted On: Nov 17th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

I don't want to attempt anything to long, so I'll just post the link instead. This explains everything about how he uses the LRC combined wither other factors to come up with his winter forecast. Enjoy!

http://weatherblog.nbcactionne…..2010-2011/

  1. Weatherfan says:

    I have to question about their above average temperatures area in the Northwest where I expect them to be well below average and the near average precipitation area.  Doesn't seem to make any sense in those parts.  Oh well.  It's their forecast.  We'll see how well the LRC works out this time.  

  2. glennkoks says:

    Very interesting.  I have my doubts about the LRC but He does have a very good record predicting the weather.

  3. Flake Fan says:

    glennkoks said:Very interesting.  I have my doubts about the LRC but He does have a very good record predicting the weather.


    Yup, this and the FA the only winter forecasts I even pay attention to. They're the only ones that get it right! Who knows? Maybe even the FA uses some form of the LRC that allows them to predict future cycles for their own forecasts. ;)

  4. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    Yeah, I'm liking it for Ohio. I know they have a good track record for their area, but how do they do as a whole for the USA?? I'm going to definitely take note and see how they do this season. :-D

  5. Flake Fan says:

    PlowmanOhio81 said:Yeah, I'm liking it for Ohio. I know they have a good track record for their area, but how do they do as a whole for the USA?? I'm going to definitely take note and see how they do this season. :-D


    Last winter? They did phenomenal! The only place they didn't do well with is the SE, where they forcasted warm and dry. Bu the arctic outbreaks were so strong, that once or twice the fronts made it all the way into southern Florida, so the temperatures were cooler than what was predicted. Otherwise, it was outstanding!

  6. Flake Fan says:

    Weatherfan said:I have to question about their above average temperatures area in the Northwest where I expect them to be well below average and the near average precipitation area.  Doesn't seem to make any sense in those parts.  Oh well.  It's their forecast.  We'll see how well the LRC works out this time.  


    I can't say that even I completely understand why they put the NW as above average, but of they did it is pretty likely to be correct. Just because there is a La Nina pattern, that doesn't mean it has to be cool along with it.

  7. The Rickster says:

    I'm about to have to head to work, but I'll do some number crunching when I get home. According to the link, a pattern sets up between between October 1st, to November 10th. I want to figure out what our overall average for the month (and a few days afterwards) was for that duration in terms of day time highs. If I can figure that little tid-bit of info out, maybe that'll give me some insight to what might go down this winter.

    The overall feel of the weather has been odd the last few months.

    Trees are still hanging onto their leaves while some of the others have lost'em. We had thunder in the fall (supposed sign of a rough winter). Squirrels have bushy tails. Night time lows have been very cold, all things considered.

    We'll see what happens…

  8. Flake Fan says:

    The Rickster said:

    I'm about to have to head to work, but I'll do some number crunching when I get home. According to the link, a pattern sets up between between October 1st, to November 10th. I want to figure out what our overall average for the month (and a few days afterwards) was for that duration in terms of day time highs. If I can figure that little tid-bit of info out, maybe that'll give me some insight to what might go down this winter.

    The overall feel of the weather has been odd the last few months.

    Trees are still hanging onto their leaves while some of the others have lost'em. We had thunder in the fall (supposed sign of a rough winter). Squirrels have bushy tails. Night time lows have been very cold, all things considered.

    We'll see what happens…


    Unfortunately, it's not that clean. As the seasons change, so will the nature of how the LRC affects the weather on the surface. As an extreme example, you could have a very warm, dry autumn, followed by a record breaking winter in terms of snow and cold, to a rather temperate and sublime spring. But you can use the LRC to predict the upper air patterns for different times of year, and make a good guess about how that will affect what happens at the surface.

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