My thoughts about the Pattern from now through December…

Posted By: FatherFrost  Posted On: Nov 19th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

As I sit here in the warmth of our public library it is 49 degrees outside. In this part of VA that is only 2 degrees above the average high temperature for JANUARY! Obviously there is excitement in the air over the coming cold spell and both the GFS and the Euro are in agreement.

Before we get there though, we have to make it through the warmer 75% of next week.

In the east temperatures this weekend will range from the 80's in florida to the 30's and 40's in New England. Frost and freezes are likely up north with clear, balmy conditions down south. This is due to the current setup. While we have a negative NAO, there is a negative PNA.

This causes the cold stay bottled up in the north and west. This pattern will persist through mid-week. By wednesday and early thursday, a GLC will push through the midwest and bring in MUCH, MUCH colder air behind it. In fact, on Thanksgiving it may start out warm but by the afternoon and evening it will be rather chilly. The following weekend and into the great beyond of December a -NAO and -AO pattern should persist. The PNA will be a bit of a wild card but overall December looks cold and …eventful. It looks fairly similar, as Phil said, to last December exept there should be more moisture around. And yes, I will go out on a limb and say that I think I stand a very good chance at seeing accumulating snow this December IF the majority of forecast verify…which, I think they will. ;)

That's all folks!

  1. spellbound says:

    Oh boy, oh boy, oh boy.  I can't wait !!!!!   I hope you are right about December.  If Januay does warm up it will still snow right ?? 

  2. Maxceedo says:

    its all bullcrap just wait something is gonna happen and it will be warm instead

  3. MSSouthernGirl says:

    Thanks for the update FatherFrost. I've noticed that our weather pattern down here in “dixie” has been trending cooler. Still ar oller coaster but finally the temps have been cooler over-all.  Our Mets have issued an interesting forecast for the upcoming week with a high of 42 and the low dipping to below freezing by Friday. I was wondering if the cold pattern would finally stick this time.

  4. Flake Fan says:

    Yup yup yup! The NWS yesterday was forecasting a high of 31 degrees for me on Thanksgiving. That'll be the first time it has stayed that cool during the day since the first day of spring, when it was snowing all day and we had several inches by the next day.

  5. TheMaineMan says:

    Hopefully December will be a more exciting month than November… November has been quite dull so far and it's almost over.

  6. weather411 says:

    This December has disturbing(in a good way!) similarities to last December! The NAO and AO are going into the abyss with the high latitude blocking that's going on and this is sure to bring some fun in games down the road. The first wave of REAL cold will arrive this week. The magnitude and extent farther south and east has been put into some question and this is due to the PNA which is negative(as Garrett mentioned). When the PNA is negative it promotes a lot of troughiness in the west and makes it difficult for a front to push south with a southwesterly flow aloft. However models DO tend to underestimate air masses of this nature and usually modify them too quickly and/or have frontal passages that are 6-12 hours too slow.

    I know for sure the GFS has been VERY interesting in its realm of solutions during the first week of December… yes the long range GFS can be untrustworthy however given the teleconnections and overall pattern right now it wouldn't surprise me at all.

  7. wjp2011111 says:

    I sense denial…..

    Winter 2010-11 = Not cold!  k? LOL :D


  8. FatherFrost says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    I sense denial…..

    Winter 2010-11 = Not cold!  k? LOL :D


    Where is this denial??

    This winter will feature some cold weather for everyone unless you live in the SW and deeper South. Furthermore, this thread is not about discussing Winter. It is about discussing the pattern for DECEMBER. Thanks.

  9. wjp2011111 says:

    But seriously…what were you talking about?

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