I have been watching this one for a couple of days now. GFS has kept the storm suppressed well to the south for awhile now, but there could be the potential for a wintry event for the Deep South into the Carolina's on during that week. I remember last years Feb 11-13 southern snowstorm the GFS kept suppressing the storm well to the south and then began the general northward trend as we came closer towards the event. It is something to defiantly watch over the next week. Here are today's 12Z GFS run and tonight's 0Z GFS run and you can see the northward trend on the models.
12Z GFS at 252 hrs
12Z at 264 hrs
You can see the GFS take the low towards Miami, FL. Now the 0Z runs for Dec 8.
0Z at 240 hrs
0Z at 252 hrs
The low didn't go as far south as 12Z and therefor road up the coast giving some wintry weather for the Carolinas. We'll see if the GFS can continue to show this scenario. Should be fun to watch though.
I have been watching this one for a couple of days now. GFS has kept the storm suppressed well to the south for awhile now, but there could be the potential for a wintry event for the Deep South into the Carolina's on during that week. I remember last years Feb 11-13 southern snowstorm the GFS kept suppressing the storm well to the south and then began the general northward trend as we came closer towards the event. It is something to defiantly watch over the next week.
Yep. I remember the oddity of the GFS from last winter where it shot a low toward Cuba instead of up the coast due to it advertising significant cold air. However, even with a northward trend, if there's going to be any winter weather from the Carolinas and north, the low needs to be just far enough east but not too much like along the coast or sitting a few miles off from it.
Btw, looks like the 12z GFS ensemble wants to bring another chance of some wintry precipitation during the early part of the week of 12/12.
I have been watching this one for a couple of days now. GFS has kept the storm suppressed well to the south for awhile now, but there could be the potential for a wintry event for the Deep South into the Carolina's on during that week. I remember last years Feb 11-13 southern snowstorm the GFS kept suppressing the storm well to the south and then began the general northward trend as we came closer towards the event. It is something to defiantly watch over the next week. Here are today's 12Z GFS run and tonight's 0Z GFS run and you can see the northward trend on the models.
12Z GFS at 252 hrs
12Z at 264 hrs
You can see the GFS take the low towards Miami, FL. Now the 0Z runs for Dec 8.
0Z at 240 hrs
0Z at 252 hrs
The low didn't go as far south as 12Z and therefor road up the coast giving some wintry weather for the Carolinas. We'll see if the GFS can continue to show this scenario. Should be fun to watch though.
Yep. I remember the oddity of the GFS from last winter where it shot a low toward Cuba instead of up the coast due to it advertising significant cold air. However, even with a northward trend, if there's going to be any winter weather from the Carolinas and north, the low needs to be just far enough east but not too much like along the coast or sitting a few miles off from it.
Btw, looks like the 12z GFS ensemble wants to bring another chance of some wintry precipitation during the early part of the week of 12/12.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.co….._Loop.html
Hopefully this means something for the GL/OV. I'm gonna keep my eye on this.
Both 0Z Euro and CMC show a nice potential for a Miller A development.
CMC go out to 240 hrs.
http://www.stanford.edu/~tenho…..tm#picture
Euro at 240 hrs is a little slower on progression of storm
Both euro and GFS 12Z runs were awful.