Things Are About To Change Real Soon….

Posted By: weather411  Posted On: Nov 29th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

The pattern we've had last week is a clear La Nina signal with a negative PNA producing the trough in the west and pumping the ridge in the south and east. The negative PNA affected the outcome of the large scale cold I was forecasting for November. The cold certainly developed, but had a hard time coming south and east due to the orientation of the Greenland blocking and massive southwesterly flow regime aloft.

The pattern evolving for the first few weeks of December will probably be our BEST chance of any snow this winter if you live anywhere from the southern plains, southeast, Ohio valley, and eastern seaboard. We have a negative AO/NAO combination right now and with the MJO going near Octant three this supports a trough in the east. We also have stratospheric warming commencing despite a west based QBO and this will displace the cold over the pole farther south and east. With continued height rises and blocking expected to retrograde I am compelled to say that our most significant arctic intrusion yet is underway. With a trough developing over the east this puts most of the country in a northwest flow aloft. So instead of lake cutting systems(like the current one), systems are apt to go more east or southeast and this will put the aforementioned regions in a favorable pattern for wintry precipitation. What is interesting is the fact that the LRC theory is emerging. Remember the period of the omega blocking then amplified closed lows over the southwest translating east? This pattern could be redeveloping which will prove to be VERY interesting for many as this time there will be a lot more cold in the pattern.

After Christmas the AO is likely headed dominantly positive with a raging west based QBO. This translates to a classic La Nina signal on our pattern which develops the ridge over the southeast and trough northwest. The NAO is still somewhat of a wild card.

  1. wjp2011111 says:

    The colder pattern should last through DEC 20th, as expected.  The epic flip to warm in 4 weeks will be nothing short of amazing.

    This basically proves that no matter what, La Nina is the dominant factor.

  2. weather411 says:

    wjp2011111 said:

    The colder pattern should last through DEC 20th, as expected.  The epic flip to warm in 4 weeks will be nothing short of amazing.

    This basically proves that no matter what, La Nina is the dominant factor.


    Summarizing what I just said? :P How couldn't La Nina be a dominant factor with how strong it is!

  3. okie333 says:

    weather411 said:

     :P How couldn't La Nina be a dominant factor with how strong it is!


    Is the La Niña the strongest in nearly 100 years? Or should I say, are the temperatures the weakest in nearly 100 years?

    Hint: Look southward at high noon.

  4. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    But if you throw LRC into the equation, then January/February/March will start average/slightly above average temperatures and end with below average temperatures… And the month's start damp, dry out for the middle half of the month, and finish out wet. At least that is what happened for the Lower GL and OV anyway.

    Or am I interpreting LRC wrong?? Because I believe they did say this year was a 30 day cycle this year…

  5. weather411 says:

    PlowmanOhio81 said:

    But if you throw LRC into the equation, then January/February/March will start average/slightly above average temperatures and end with below average temperatures… And the month's start damp, dry out for the middle half of the month, and finish out wet. At least that is what happened for the Lower GL and OV anyway.

    Or am I interpreting LRC wrong?? Because I believe they did say this year was a 30 day cycle this year…


    The  LRC referrs to the placement of major weather features such as troughs and ridges…. and remember there's a difference betwen similar and exact. I was trying to get across that a similar pattern could be re-occurring.

  6. weather411 says:

    okie333 said:

    weather411 said:

     :P How couldn't La Nina be a dominant factor with how strong it is!


    Is the La Niña the strongest in nearly 100 years? Or should I say, are the temperatures the weakest in nearly 100 years?

    Hint: Look southward at high noon.


    Who said anything about strongest in 100 years? not me. ;)

  7. okie333 says:

    weather411 said:

    okie333 said:

    weather411 said:

     :P How couldn't La Nina be a dominant factor with how strong it is!


    Is the La Niña the strongest in nearly 100 years? Or should I say, are the temperatures the weakest in nearly 100 years?

    Hint: Look southward at high noon.


    Who said anything about strongest in 100 years? not me. ;)


    Yeah, but there is something else (look southward at high noon to see it) that is the most anomalous it's been in almost 100 years ;)

  8. TheMaineMan says:

    … it finally goes below normal for more than  a few days at once, and now the pattern is going to change. Just great!

  9. glennkoks says:

    okie, you got me on that one.  What am I looking south at high noon for?

  10. glennkoks says:

    If i had to guess I would say it has to do with the height of the sun but a quick trip to Google left me without answers.

  11. glennkoks says:

    Okie, the only thing I can think of is the lowest solar cycle activity since solar cycle 15?  Is that the what you are referring to?

  12. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    So do you foresee this ridge in the east to move a little bit or stay pretty much the same?? Because it's position now drives the storms up north to early for the eastern 1/3 to recieve any winter like weather. But I'm questioning LRC's forecast because they forecasted below normal temps and above average snow for the Ohio region……. ??

  13. wjp2011111 says:

    okie333 said:

    weather411 said:

     :P How couldn't La Nina be a dominant factor with how strong it is!


    Is the La Niña the strongest in nearly 100 years? Or should I say, are the temperatures the weakest in nearly 100 years?

    Hint: Look southward at high noon.


    Ok Mr. Weak East Based.

  14. wjp2011111 says:

    We better get in as much winter as we can before DEC 23rd, or we could be in for a stressful time

  15. snoopystar19 says:

    wjp2011111 said:We better get in as much winter as we can before DEC 23rd, or we could be in for a stressful time


    Really that doesn't sound good at all,   I have saw some flurries the ground was covered so it won't be that bad if I don't see any snow for a long while . Tomorrow we are suppose to get a inch of snow but I will wait to see if that happens Smile I think it will

  16. snowlover says:

    wjp2011111 said:We better get in as much winter as we can before DEC 23rd, or we could be in for a stressful time


    Why do you say this WJP?  Nothing at all after the 23rd?  Frown

  17. weather411 says:

    The weekly Euro's actually looked quite interesting yesterday…… just saying.

  18. okie333 says:

    weather411 said:The weekly Euro's actually looked quite interesting yesterday…… just saying.


    What do they say for Tulsa area? And not just temps: gimme the juicy precip details too. I've heard the NAO will stay negative… how negative does that mean? What about the EPO? Most importantly of the three indices, will the AO be positive, neutral, negative, strongly negative, or 09-10? Oh, and the answer to the riddle I gave earlier in the thread is the low solar activity, the lowest since the 60-month period centered in August 1912. That's gotta affect something… maybe the stratosphere has something to do with it (and therefore the AO and NAO, which many studies have correlated to solar activity)? By comparison to the AO the ENSO state is a virtual non-factor in Oklahoma (according to linear correlation, at least… quadratic fitting shows that any strong ENSO state is not good for OK… last year was a strong El Niño though, so anything that can override a strong Niño should be able to override a moderate-borderline strong Niña, right?).

    One interesting note about 1912, a fairly good long-term solar analog for 2008 based on the 60 months surrounding the minimum: All but 3 of the following 18 winters (that is, 15 of 18 from 1912/1913 through 1929/1930) were above the median (in the top 50%) for snowfall according to a weighted average of COOP station data around Tulsa. Also, all but 2 of the following 15 winters (13 of 15 from 1912/1913 through 1926/1927) were above the median, and and all but 1 of the following 10 winters (9 of 10 from 1912/1913 through 1921/1922) were above the median. Over half of the following 8 winters (5 of 8 from 1912/1913 through 1919/1920) were in the top 25% for snowfall. Switch to a special index based on snow depth per day, and the same statistics apply, with two additional facts added: Of the six following winters (1912/1913 through 1917/1918), 100% (6 of 6) were above the median, and 2/3 (4 of 6) of them were in the top 25%.

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