I didn't post this entire post because it goes into some detail on the main site at Firsthand Weather (firsthandweather.com) Click here to read the entire post and get all the details.
A couple of weeks ago, I released the White Christmas Forecast for the United States. Everyone is asking if I still believe that this forecast is going to hold up. Considering the fact that I have a 50 to 60% chance of snow cover for Christmas Day all the way from the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-South really throws a lot of questions out there. My thinking a couple of weeks ago was that there was going to be a “mega-snowstorm” to impact a lot of areas across the United States. Nothing has changed, but there is still a good bit of uncertainty.
Hi There
Have a question is the Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia included in that excessive amount of snow? I couldn't tell if it was or not. I know they are calling for a White Christmas here but have said nothing else. I guess just being cautious. Thanks
The excessive amounts will generally be seen in the high mountains, but I am watching a surface low that could bring some really good snows to a big portion of the country. You definitely will see a good bit of the white stuff espcially if this storm pans out. Timing and the track of this storm will be something to watch!
Thank you Matthew and I sure hope we do see a nice amount of snow for Christmas. But they said it's still uncertain of how much yet, so we will see.
Well it looks like the storm that was coming out the rockies is not going to happen for my area I'm not bummes that we won't see big accumalations but maybe some snow showers on Saturday but here is what my local weather guy said yesterday :
The ECMWF is pushing the low-pressure center much farther south than in previous runs. It actually pushes the low off the South Carolina/Georgia coast by 12Z Sunday before bringing it back up the east coast during the day. This solution dumps a massive storm on the eastern metro areas by Monday morning.
By comparison, the GFSx moves the storm along a roughly parallel path but a few hundred miles north and nearly 24-hours more quickly. This solution has the storm sliding off the Virginia coast by 00Z Sunday, pounding the eastern metros Sunday night, and moving well east of Maine, out to sea, by Monday morning.
Both runs deepen the low as it moves through eastern seaboard. The ECMWF drops it to 971mb and the GFSx to 979. That's really, really low. A very strong storm.
Forecasts and weather-related commentary from McWeather.com.
The ECMWF is pushing the low-pressure center much farther south than in previous runs. It actually pushes the low off the South Carolina/Georgia coast by 12Z Sunday before bringing it back up the east coast during the day. This solution dumps a massive storm on the eastern metro areas by Monday morning.
By comparison, the GFSx moves the storm along a roughly parallel path but a few hundred miles north and nearly 24-hours more quickly. This solution has the storm sliding off the Virginia coast by 00Z Sunday, pounding the eastern metros Sunday night, and moving well east of Maine, out to sea, by Monday morning.
Both runs deepen the low as it moves through eastern seaboard. The ECMWF drops it to 971mb and the GFSx to 979. That's really, really low. A very strong storm.
The whole thing is still out of range for the RPM, the NAM and the RUC.
The only thing swaying me at the moment is the consistency of the GFSx. Its timing and path for this storm have stayed on roughly the same track for the past few days. That doesn't mean it's totally reliable, though.
The frustrating part is having to wait for a few more model runs to see if they come more into line with one another and give us a better idea of the true storm track and timing. We should have a pretty good handle on it by Wednesday night
How much would south western Pa get ??
NBC Connecticut says that we probably will get a lot of snow, but we're watching it.
My local KDKA just said we are getting nothing. Figures. It would have been nice to have a huge storm for CHRISTMAS evn just a snow storm. They also said we are warming up into the 40's next week. Sucks.