January: The End of Winter

Posted By: okie333  Posted On: Dec 27th, 2010  Filed Under: Weather

…NOT!!!

A significant stratospheric warming event around January 5-7 will likely drop the Arctic Oscillation to very low levels starting around the 15th. Winter will come back in full force (see what's been going on in Europe for the past few weeks?) by the 20th. Any warmup until then should be unimpressive (near average), transient (in advance of a major cold front), or both. A Niño-esque Pineapple Express should provide ample moisture to much of the nation. Prospects are looking grim for the Niña warm-mongers (not naming names, but someone else's post a month ago said AO would be positive by now… instead there haven't been any positive readings in over a month, and it's very negative) to say the least.

  1. AR_Country says:

    So you are saying it is not going to be above average in temp wise.  If that is the case what would you say the rest of winter will be like?

  2. FatherFrost says:

    February could be the truly above normal month but Okie is right. The Above Normal january calls look to be in trouble.

  3. dougout6789 says:

    okie333 said:

    …NOT!!!

    A significant stratospheric warming event around January 5-7 will likely drop the Arctic Oscillation to very low levels starting around the 15th. Winter will come back in full force (see what's been going on in Europe for the past few weeks?) by the 20th. Any warmup until then should be unimpressive (near average), transient (in advance of a major cold front), or both. A Niño-esque Pineapple Express should provide ample moisture to much of the nation. Prospects are looking grim for the Niña warm-mongers (not naming names, but someone else's post a month ago said AO would be positive by now… instead there haven't been any positive readings in over a month, and it's very negative) to say the least.


    So would that mean a better set up for the lower great lakes  to get snow storms

  4. dougout6789 says:

    okie333 said:

    …NOT!!!

    A significant stratospheric warming event around January 5-7 will likely drop the Arctic Oscillation to very low levels starting around the 15th. Winter will come back in full force (see what's been going on in Europe for the past few weeks?) by the 20th. Any warmup until then should be unimpressive (near average), transient (in advance of a major cold front), or both. A Niño-esque Pineapple Express should provide ample moisture to much of the nation. Prospects are looking grim for the Niña warm-mongers (not naming names, but someone else's post a month ago said AO would be positive by now… instead there haven't been any positive readings in over a month, and it's very negative) to say the least.


    So would that mean a better set up for the lower great lakes  to get snow storms

  5. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    I have noticed that too… but the biggest thing I have been wondering, is when will this cold air in Europe reach the US?? LOL :)

  6. TheMaineMan says:

    Well, this weekend is forecast to be 10-20 degrees above average, and now next weekend looks like it could be 10-20 degrees above average as well. I see some seasonable temperatures in the outlook, but nothing below-average in the first half of the month. So yes, this coming thaw will be significant… better luck in the second half of the month.

    Maybe other regions of the country will fare better, but I think January will be my 15th “warm” month in a row.

  7. PlowmanOhio81 says:

    That's bc you need some of those low pressure systems to move off the coast from you to pull in that nice arctic air!!! :) LOL Instead they all keep tracking up through Maine. But we all know these LR forecasts change 100x before they're within range.

  8. FatherFrost says:

    TheMaineMan said:

    Well, this weekend is forecast to be 10-20 degrees above average, and now next weekend looks like it could be 10-20 degrees above average as well. I see some seasonable temperatures in the outlook, but nothing below-average in the first half of the month. So yes, this coming thaw will be significant… better luck in the second half of the month.

    Maybe other regions of the country will fare better, but I think January will be my 15th “warm” month in a row.


    This coincides with the CPC outlook for 6-10 and 8-14 Days. Below average temps in the southern half of the us with below normal temps stretching up to the N. Plains and Lakes with a bubble of EC on the PNW and NE.

  9. weather411 says:

    TheMaineMan said:

    Well, this weekend is forecast to be 10-20 degrees above average, and now next weekend looks like it could be 10-20 degrees above average as well. I see some seasonable temperatures in the outlook, but nothing below-average in the first half of the month. So yes, this coming thaw will be significant… better luck in the second half of the month.

    Maybe other regions of the country will fare better, but I think January will be my 15th “warm” month in a row.


    BLOCKING. The blocking that has been in place has kept you on the warm side of things. Like PlowmanOhio81 said you need this low pressure to move away from the coast(or in other words the blocking to break down) in order for your region to experience some cold by your standards.

    I think Okie333 is on to something, the stratosphere has been a real wildcard so far…. it's possible that it's volcano induced.

You must be signed in to join the discussion. Sign in ยป