Making the Guess for this summer and next winter is more based off climo rather than modeling. Last summer, those going with modeling and a weak La Nina actually had better winter forecasts, but the ENSO phase in its dominate stage from October through Febuary can prove quite a hassle to forecast.
Subsurface Anomalies in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean right now are quite warm, which has many predicting El Nino next winter. My opinion is no more important than anyone elses in this regard, but an El Nino of any significance seems unlikely at this point. The Atmosphere alone can Kill an ENSO event, and if the Atmosphere and Oceans are not in Sync, the we have a Neutral ENSO event. Right now, despite the warm subsurface SST’s, we have an atmosphere that is still very much in full blown La Nina Mode, high +SOI readings are booming (although are exaggerrated by a TC signal). The AAM index, while recently spiking positive, has not only crashed again, but is plummeting. New easterly Wind Bursts are forecast to pummel the ENSO regions in the coming 2 weeks. Does this seem like El Nino? Nope!
We just came out of a massive El Nino in 2010, into a Strong La Nina MEI wise in 2011. When was the Last time we went Strong Nino, Strong Nina, then weak Nino in a row….during a -PDO phase? Never!
We see several indications of an imbalance between the Subsurface SST’s in the pacific, and the Atmspheric Mode. MJO activity indeed is reflecting a Chaotic climate system, so any Major ENSO next winter is Unlikely IMO.
El Nino/La Nina are the Earths ways of redistributing heat from the Oceans to the Atmosphere, and visa versa. El Nino releases heat from the oceans to the atmosphere, visa versa with La Nina. The oceans 1000000X+ the amount of energy the atmosphere does, so the atmosphere will really just do what the oceans tell it to, in a sense. However, if the energy budget is in a state of imbalance, as in, there is no constant heat source/not enough heat for the climate system to release, it will go into a state of Chaos, where several aspects of the system fight for power.
(off topic for a sec)
This is one of the problems I have with the “global warming” theory. One can argue what increased CO2/per doubling would have forcing wise on the climate, but the effect on global temperature is determined by feedbacks, not forcings. In order for Global warming to work, you need a system of positive feedbacks throughout the climate system. Unfortunately, that either is not the case, or there is self contradicting going on.
Warmists claim the Sun has no effect on the Climate because it has been weakening since the 1970′s while we have continued to warm. True, TSI (sun) has been weakening since the 1970′s, but these decades have still seen record breaking solar activity.
ERROR! Assuming that a weakening sun since the 1970′s disproves that it warms the planet is silly, because that is assuming we have reached equilibrium (balance), and that the accumulating solar energy, while lessening, cannot still build up in the climates system.
OK, so if we assume that indeed the warmists are correct about the “rapid equilibrium” Sun theory…..they have just disproven their own Global Warming Theory! Why? Well, rapid equilibrium can only occur in a system of Negative CLimate feedbacks! Remember, Global Warming from Human CO2 emissions requires positive feedbacks….so, they can’t have it both ways. Either the sun plays a major role and is still doing so…or the Global Warming theory needs some re-analysis.
(Back on topic)
Now that I’m done with my rant, what does my small, unworthy mind think the ENSO will do this coming year?
I may very well be wrong, but I’d think we see, this summer, ENSO spike into Weak El Nino Range for a few months, before dropping back into Neutral territory next winter. Next winter could be a big one for the US cold/snow wise, but….thats for later, and I could be wrong about everything.