I know it is very early yet, but did anyone read the article on yahoo news about the sun spots? To sum it up, it states that sun spots are entering a hibernation period unseen since the 17th century, a pattern that could have a slight cooling effect on global temperatures. In the 17 century this was called…..wait for it…….the Little Ice Age!!! According to the article there is still debate over if this will drop temps, and etc. This is really something……Here is the link…..hope it makes you winter lovers (as my self) smile!!!! http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110615/sc_afp/usspacesun
Mini Ice Age????????
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I have a feeling we will see a period of cooling over the next several years. I am not sure if we will see a repeat of the Little Ice Age, but definitely something close to the Dalton Minimum is very possible, if not likely. There are quite a few credible sources out there that believe the decreasing sunspots will lead to cooler weather over the next decade or so. Definitely after experiencing this last winter, nothing will surprise me.
I have really been looking into the effects of sunspots since this last winter and have found some really interesting information from this site: http://landscheidt.wordpress.com/ and also this one http://www.landscheidt.info/
Here are my personal thoughts on the sunspot activity: http://convectiveweather.com/2011/06/solar-minimum-coming-colder-winters-on-the-horizon-maybe/
I love winter myself. Nothing makes me happier than seeing snow falling from the sky. I live in Northern California, roughly two hours away from lake Tahoe, Donner lake, and Truckee. I moved here back in March, and have since taken maybe 5 or 6 day drives to those areas just to see snow! I’m all for a little ice age. Bring it on!
It was in the mini ice-age that our current holiday and winter weather stereotypes were set up. Only bad thing is it bought the end of the Renaissance and Europe was just generally unhappy until after the two wars. Colder weather would mean less food and higher fuel prices.
Be careful what you wish for!
cool
Heating oil would be the worst part I think. I’d go insulation-crazy around my home. Luckily I can set my heater at 60 degrees and be comfortable when many people run it at 68-70.
Well I’d assume it would take some time for low solar activity to lower the earth’s overall energy budget. A change in cloud cover of just 3% equates to 1.8W/m^2 of increased radiative forcing, and The retoration of ozone lost in the Modern max would prevent higher UVA/UVB rays (& other high amplitude shortwave radiation) from penetrating into the Climate System.
Just to put that in perspective, the Earth’s overall energy Budget is about 340W/m^2… increasing CO2 since 1850 has only led to a 1.4W/m^2 increase in radiative forcing, and LLGCC (low clouds) have trended downward since 1979 by almost 4% which equates to 2.4W/m^2 of increased radiative forcing. OLR (Outgoing Longwave Radiation) Varies by, on avg, 20W/m^2/yr, and the overall trend in OLR since 1979 reflects an overall increase by near 10W/m^2. Since 1979, CO2 has led to only 0.8W/m^2 of increased radiative forcing to the Climate ystem. Thus, if these satellite measurements are correct, CO2 is responsible for only 6% of the warming since 1979, 10% would a high estimate, 2-3% would be a low estimate.
So the other ~ 95% was due to natural causes, such as Galactic Cosmic Ray Influence on GCC (Global Cloud Cover), CME’s via the Coronal Magnetic Sun & Ionization of the Stratosphere, Ozone Depletion, and Oscillations such as the PDO/AMO/IOD/IPO/QDO.
So to Correlate, the Solar Prediction to infleunce the Climate, would take mutliple decades, maybe even centuries, to cool us 0.5C. Best way to gauge climactic impact is to follow the Geomagnetic AA-Index, The Geomagnetic Flux.
AA-Index:
Pa = {kp /2m o(1/3-a )} ME2/3 msw(2/3-a ) Nsw(2/3-a ) vsw(7/3-2a ) Bsw2a sin4(q /2) = aap / sa (1)
Where the MSW is the mean ion mass value, NSW the total concentration and VSW the speed of the solar wind on average. BSW is the IMF magnitude, Q is the IMF orientation, ME is the magnetic moment of the Earth, SA and K are constants and AAP is the best-fit prediction of AA. From annual means for 1964-1996, the best-fit A is found to be 0.386,2 and SA is retrieved from a linear regression fit of against PA . The largest factor contributing to the rise in since 1964 is an upward drift in BSW , with significant rises in NSW and VSW, but the mean Q has grown somewhat less favourable for increasing .2 The dependence is sufficient to allow derivation of BSW from .
Anyone else here agree that maybe no response in temperature until 2017 or so?
Sorry, can’t agree itl I read the weather for dummies version. LOL
Being snowed in for a week with no electric, etc is not a grand idea. I been there back in the 80′s. Making snow angels is fun for maybe a day. “Little Ice Age”, I read that article, think I start making my ‘goody’ bag now!! All else, falling asleep in the cold is better than burning up!! Some snow right now would be great, it was 103 here yesterday and that’s not the heat index.
I agree with Spellbound. Its 86 outside, but the humidity makes it feel worse of course. I’m living BACK in South Carolina now…so yeah.
I think it is safe to say that man is having an impact but the feedbacks are poorly understood. Oscillations may or may not be effected in the way we think they are and there are probably hundreds of factors that come into play. The PDO has switched to a colder cycle and if and when the AMO changes in the next decade we may return to temps similar to what we experienced during the seventies or even colder.