It is entirely too quiet around here! At this point last year, there were at least five WINTER forecasts, let alone those for fall. It’s time to get this community back on track with serious discussions about our thoughts for upcoming seasons!
With that, I will debut my SON forecast for this year, temperature only.
Discussion
When looking for analogs it becomes very clear that we are in very uncharted territory. Going back to 1950, I could only find six years that had negative neutral or weak Nina conditions following a borderline moderate/strong Nina. 1956,1985,1989, 1996, 2000, 2008. Of those, only 1989 is a great fit with a Nino/Nina three year pattern as we are in now.
With that said, 2000,despite being year three of a three year Nina, had a lot going for it as well. Descending QBO, similar summer, etc . . . Both of these standouts are pissing the predominate overall -PDO, -AO, -NAO trend we have been in, so that has to factor in as well.
Given the abscence of a perfect analog, I am using a blend of 60 percent analogs with heavy emphasis on 89 and 00, 30 percent roll forward of current pattern, and 10 percent gut.
I do think the ridge currently centered over Oklahoma City will continue to grow over the next month before start to shift west around the third week of August. By the start of September, I expect the axis of the ridge to be straddling the Rockies, ushering in below average temps in all but the far western periphery of the blue bubble above. This is not to say that the ridge won’t flex during September and there will be plenty of warm days left for most, but the heat should be on its last legs.
Although I do not include precip in this forecast, I do think we will see early snows north of 40N in early November and north of 35N around Thanksgiving. I see November to be major cold for most of the nation, being an early start to winter.
If you have any questions, just ask. Full disclosure, I’m not great at predicting the entire nation, but very good at predicting the Southern Plains. Decided to do the whole thing to foster discussion.
Wow! Looks good. I particularly like the early snow part. Hopefully that’ll include the mid atlantic states. Thanks. This’ll keep me happy as I go through the high 90s this week:)
Likewise. This heat is a crock.
I’ve heard that cool and wet with lots of sunshine brings the best fall colors.
This looks like heaven compared to the weather have right now (99temp/73dp). I’m hoping up your right!
i agree withthat map. im on the line of much below and below avg. Im thinking it will be half an half for us. I heard by halloween it might be snowing? Thats big time early! i will be getting my bizz ready for the winter early this year for sure.
Dan
Good to see a forcast, especially one that works for a cooldown of these record setting highs around here.
Bill
does that mean the lower great lakes could see its first measurable snow around Thanxgiving or little befor thanxgiving. Befor I forget I live in nw ohio.
I hope you’re right about seasonable temps. It’s raining right now and about 13 or 14 C, or 56/58 F. It’s not so great for our plants that need warmer temps in the upper 70 F’s.
@Grandin and @adogg
Yes, I think that most locations north of 35N will see snow by Thanksgiving. Difficult to say before Halloween though, Grandin, those events are dependent on so many factors that I couldn’t in good conscience even pretend to predict that.
@stuffradio
We haven’t been below 90 since May 30 for a high and not below 100 in ten days, including highs of 107, 107, 109, 105, and 107. The weather you describe is average Thanksgiving weather for us, my friend. In short, I’m jealous.
@arkansas Come to SW BC, Canada then. You’ll love it here
Hello guys just wanted to say this is a very intresting outlook for fall 2011 i live in Montreal Canada and let me tell you so far july has been beautiful and hot (humid) but i still miss does cool nice days in the summer you no. Anyways i hope this fall will be cooler and the winter will be snowier then are last one its been 2 years now snow in the winter has not been that much here i dont no why?? Last fall was still pretty warm compare to other falls we had but i hope that will change one day again does anybody have any ideas???
My only suggestion to you is to come to the West Coast. We’re supposed to be in this pattern at least until next week.
yes i live in the mid-atlantic
Do you think Houston would have a colder/snowier winter than last year?
While it is too early to say anything about winter, I would say your chances are not that great HoustonSnow. We will likely be negative neutral to weak Nina which really isn’t all that great for snow in the far south.
Honestly, it takes such an amount of things to come together, that I’m not sure I would ever feel confident saying snow for Houston.
Thanks for the early outlook Arkansas. Thoughts of an early Fall will help to get me through the rest of this blazing hot summer. I know better than to expect snow for winter down here but when it happens it is always a nice surprise.
You guys in Mississippi might actually see a few snowstorms this year. Things are going to be very wierd this winter with snow coming to the southeast this year. This winter looks to be interesting down south. Keeps your eyes peeled, as this winter could have the potential to set record breaking temps and snow. This winter isn’t going to be normal for the southeast as it looks to be an El nino on hours hands. Stay tuned for many more of my blogs this summer!
Fatima, an El Nino is probably the most unlikely scenario. Just stating facts, bud.
I would post my outlook guys but this forum is not letting me post new topics…have no idea why. :/
Unfortunately, FatherFrost is right, a Nino looks very slim at this point. Best bet is still on negative neutral or a weak Nina. For us in the south, our best hope is for it to be east based, which is very much in the air right now.
Some are actualy saying, it’s 50/50 of an el nino or a la nina. And also, what is the difference between an east-bast la nina and an east based el nino? Is one going to have a stronger effect on us having more cold and snow or what? Please someone explain to me the difference. Because a regular la nina is warm for us. I always thought as long as it’s an el nino we will have a bad winter, but i guess there’e a such thing as an west-based el nino and i thought that a la nina automatically brings things the west a bad winter, but i guess it’s all about east and west. Thanks!
I hinted at this in my post in the winter thread… I think that fall is overall warmer than normal for much of the Eastern US, and possibly wetter than normal as well. In spite of great tropical potential in the Atlantic Ocean, big storms will not begin to churn until late September at the earliest, which will lead to some massive or frequent storms coming towards the US. The result is a series of SE ridges bringing tropical rather than northern air into the Eastern US, which means mild and wet conditions. I expect some cool waves in late August, early September, and early October before the tropical activity gets cooking. I also think that mild conditions end in mid or late December. However, I am not forecasting a torch, and I think that northerners need to keep an eye out for early frosts as they harvest their veggie gardens.