Copied from a post of mine on Accuweather Forums:
I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if [a -AO similar in strength to 2009-2010] happened, but my thoughts for the DJF AO average are more like 76-77, which was #2. In a neutral winter this has much more effect than in a strong Niño, though… also, neutrals tend to promote a -AO more than other types. Generally, the farther from about +0.5 you go, the harder it is to get a -AO (try telling that to 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 though); but the farther from +infinity you go, the more power the cold shots will have when the AO does go negative. Having said that, I believe the pattern will be negative neutral (about -0.4 peak) in region 3.4, but 1+2 may look weak or even moderate Niña-ish. Region 4 will be the most neutral of the bunch… region 3 borderline Niña-ish. Keep an eye on the QBO… the speed its trek to negative will be vital to whether the AO is slightly negative, highly negative, or 2009-2010 repeat. The potential for a negative EPO (Alaska ridge) is nothing short of amazing; the NAO, while averaging negative, should not go as low as last winter. Everyone east of the Rockies, except maybe southern Florida, should watch out for a cold one. This ESPECIALLY applies in the Great Lakes regions. The Deep South and Southeast (Texas, Louisiana, southern Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida) should watch for frequent ice storms. North of these locations should watch for heavy snow and frequent cold blasts with very little chance of above-average temps in any given day, except for days prior to major storms. West of the Rockies there should be near-average temperatures. Precipitation is very difficult to predict right now due to conflicting variables, but I believe it will be near average for much of the nation, except possibly drier in the north (east of the Rockies) due to a latitudinally suppressed polar jet stream, and possibly a bit wetter in the south (east of the Rockies) for the same reason. The subtropical jet should be more active than last winter but less so than 2009-2010. Anyway, those are my preliminary thoughts.