-QBO, -NAO/-AO, and now – PNA,

Posted By: sonnysnow92  Posted On: Jul 29th, 2011  Filed Under: Weather

Winter not looking good at all. My area in southern IL seeing some maple trees slightly changing colors already and a few foggy mornings so far.

 

  1. romanian says:

    Do you think N.C is looking bad? I think so, the grapes are already ripe and good to eat. God does his will just like last winter, and forever. God bless you!

  2. sonnysnow92 says:

    wow haha and the way it sounds yea you will be getting lot of snow and cold but we shall see.

  3. Flake Fan says:

    We also may be heading into a faze of -PDO, to add another negative thing in there for you. That’s great for places that have winter, but so much for the drought across the southern plains.

  4. fatima20 says:

    We here in southeastern virginia should see a bad winter, as berries are ripe, and much more. Some pears aren’t even ripe yet, and the squirrels are going crazy and still eating them! Most are so ripe, theye  to get red and rotten! And to think, a pear is supposed be a late fall type of fruit that ripens around early november!

  5. FatherFrost says:

    The indices you listed support a cold and stormy winter east of the Mississippi. Doesn’t sound “bad” to me.

  6. fatima20 says:

    That’s what I thought. Cool! Thanks for telling me that fathefrost. I guess I should get ready for a snowy and cold winter heh? When you say it doesn’t sound bad you mean that it will be a snowy and cold winter, but in your opinion, this is good? Cool, so I’ll be prepared for this winter by november!

  7. sonnysnow92 says:

    What I like to her I live in southern IL

  8. fatima20 says:

    You ca expect a bad winter as well! LOL!

  9. FatherFrost says:

    JUST REMEMBER EVERYONE, IT IS JULY. ALOT CAN HAPPEN BETWEEN NOW AND DECEMBER TO CHANGE THINGS FOR BETTER OR FOR WORSE. So don’t get all excited just yet, I’d hate to be the one responsible for yall getting your hopes crushed.

  10. fatima20 says:

    here ya on that one! lol. I think oklahoma can expect cold temps at times, with above normal snowfall.

  11. steph777 says:

    that would be nice, we need rain snow whatever we can get. Hopefully it cools down for fall .

  12. sonnysnow92 says:

    Will this cool air for fall come in fast or slow??

  13. arkansasdolfan says:

    Just so everybody knows, a -PNA is a very bad thing for those from Texas through Minnesota to Ohio down to Georgia. -PNA means ridging in the central part of the country and generally cooler weather in the far west and northeast. A +PNA means the ridge is much farther west, leading to a much colder eastern 2/3 of the country.
    This is a generalization, but this rule is in effect 70 percent of the time.

  14. okie333 says:

    “Just so everybody knows, a -PNA is a very bad thing for those from Texas through Minnesota to Ohio down to Georgia. -PNA means ridging in the central part of the country and generally cooler weather in the far west and northeast. A +PNA means the ridge is much farther west, leading to a much colder eastern 2/3 of the country.
    This is a generalization, but this rule is in effect 70 percent of the time.”
     
    Yes, that is a generalization. If the NAO, AO, and EPO are negative enough, then the only effect a -PNA will have is is to increase precipitation. Such a quad-neg pattern typically implies a giant trough in the entire CONUS… not an easy task by any means.
     
    “Will this cool air for fall come in fast or slow??”
    One scenario (this is for Oklahoma) puts it this way: Around the end of August the ridge begins to shift westward, bringing near-average temps and precip for September. Around the end of September a major storm system starts moving toward the United States. Temperatures shoot up for the first week of October as the system pushes the mega-ridge eastward. On October 8, the system arrives, and temps (in Tulsa) drop from a morning “low” of 75 to an afternoon “high” of 40. The next couple of days have record low temperatures and dry air (i.e., precip type is not an issue with this system… in fact the system itself may pass well north of here… at any rate it could be Octobomb 2.0). As the ridge continues northeastward, temperatures move back up through the 15th. Eventually the mega-ridge makes its home in western Greenland, and the system (or at least its influence… the real system will continue its trek around the globe) moves to its natural position as a 50-50 low. A second large ridge forms near Alaska due to the SST’s in the region. Temperatures drop to below average around October 20th and stay there. Watch for possible wintry precip around Thanksgiving (depends on the LRC, and which systems survive the LRC change in October… if the mega-system [which incidentally brought the only two blizzards ever recorded in Tulsa... work out the math and you find out that they are the same] is one of them, then the entire winter forecast will likely revolve around that system). Watch out during stratospheric warming periods… any stratospheric warming will bring a third high to the North Pole… there’s a reason it’s called the Triple Threat Pattern.
     
    tl;dr: It will come fast, relatively speaking.

  15. fatima20 says:

    I’ve been talking about how this fall will come in quick, and leave quick to bring winter, with snow falling around thanksgiving. It’s scary how accurate i was! Are in some meteorlogy related job?

  16. snowlover says:

    Too late Father Frost; I’m already getting excited!  Looking forward to a snowy, cold winter.  Can’t wait to see what the persimmons will bring:) .

  17. fatima20 says:

    Yeah, it will only be a couple more weeks for the start of persimmon season. Good to see you again snowlover. Read my blog about amateur meteorologist teams. Thanks! 

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