Sorry for the delay folks…but anyway…without further adieu, here is my updated preliminary outlook for the 2012 DJF season:
Temperatures:
Precipitation:
Mean & Secondary Storm Tracks:
Discussion:
ENSO: Currently ENSO Neutral (La Nada) conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Easterlies continue as the La Nina returns. I expect a weak La Nina for the DJF season. Currently, the subsurface waters are showing anomalies as cold as -5 around the border of regions 1+2 and region 3.
QBO: Currently the QBO is around -0.44 and rapidly descending into a healthy negative state and should average negative by Autumn (SON). A -QBO is supportive of conditions favorable for SSW events and strong Greenland Blocking.
NAO: The NAO had recently gone through a 68-Day streak of negative anomalies. It has gone positive recently, but is expected to slip back under 0 soon. I expect the NAO to average neutral to slightly positive for September and October and then average negative for the DJF timeframe with a west-based Greenland Block (-NAO) favored by other indices and trends.
AO: Trends have shown that there is a correlation to the AAO during S. Hemisphere Winter and the AO during N. Hemisphere Winter. There is also a correlation to the Summer NAO/AO and the Winter NAO/AO. I expect the AO this Winter to average on the negative side.
PDO: The PDO entered its cool, negative phase during the Winter of 2007/2008. Recently the PDO numbers experienced a serious drop from near neutral to negative around -1.5. I expect this to continue.
Other Pacific Factors: Assuming there will be an Aleutian Ridge, where that sets up is CRITICAL to this forecast verifying. If blocking in the N. Pacific is to far south or west then it COULD cause an unfavorable setup for cold air just about everywhere except the PNW. I expect a very variable PNA this Winter averaging slightly negative. I expect a -EPO.
Solar: Currently the Sun remains fairly inactive, however, Solar Wind has ramped up a little lately. I suspect the 3 CME’s the Sun ejected had something to do with that. The Sun recently had it first spotless day in a while as well. There is a Sunspot about to enter our viewing area of the Sun soon. I expect Solar Activity to remain low and for this to have a slight impact on this Winter and future Winters.
Other notes: Watch volcanic activity around the world. The more Volcanic Eruptions, the warmer the stratosphere becomes which makes favorable Greenland Blocking more likely. Also, keep an eye on the cold pool around Newfoundland and the Warm Anomalies in the Hudson Bay, around the Canadian Archipelago, and on the Western and Southern coast of Greenland. These are typical oceanic signs of a prolonged -NAO period. One last thing, keep an eye on the warm water anomalies off the east coast. Come Fall and Winter, this could make things favorable for Nor’Easters.
That is all. I hope you enjoy my updated Preliminary Winter (DJF) 2012 Outlook.
*A snowfall forecast was not included and will not be until closer to Winter.
*WARNING: BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT mean that snowfall will be below normal. Remember that 1 inch of rain equates to 1 foot of snow.
I hope the northeast gets a lot more snow and a little less ‘blizzard’ and a little less ‘cold’
Fatima, no….the entire state of VA is in BELOW NORMAL temperatures not average…
And VA hasn’t been waiting. lol. We’ve gotten hit with harsh winters two years in a row now. lol.
You must live in a different part of virginia, because it has not been that bad with snow here, in a while.
are those number in C or F
They’re in Fahreinheit.
Thanks for taken the time and answering my question Frost. And no problem myfriend.
Dan
Thanks for your time putting this forecast together. However I sure hope you are wrong about the precipitation here in Texas. We are in a terrible drought possibly the worst ever and the ENSO changing from neutral back to negative does not bode well for us. Most of my area is between 12 and 20 inches below normal for rain.
Glennkoks, I think there may be hope for texas. This is WAY out there but after 2 back-to-back La Nina’s I think we might see a blip El Nino for the Winter of 2012/2013. This would bode extremely well for you if it were to come true. So there is hope!
FatherFrost, we need all the hope we can get. But the winter of 2012-2013 is too far for my trees to make it. I have never wished for a tropical storm but we are in need. What part of the country do you live?
Fatherfrost what does it mean for my area when it says plus 125? I am in the eastern panhandle of west virginia. Thanks
It means you can expect around 125% of normal liquid precipitation. This is assuming we see more Apps Runners this year.
Fatherfrost..What do you mean by Louisiana.. Is there going to be colder and is there going to be some snow this winter?
Louisiana could be under more infleunce from a pesky SE Ridge this Winter but will see occasional cold shots with frosts and freezes down to the coast. Snow for your area is quite hard to forecast, particularly this year since you average snowfall is less than 2 inches.
I hope we get a lot of snow here in the DC Metro region. I’m a slow lover!
What about Northwest Indiana? We tend to get the southern edge of Lake effect weather. How does our snow forcast look? I hope we’re in for a snowy winter!!
pattypooh3, according to the 2012 issue of the farmers almanac, you will see average temps very white, wet. So I’d say mild and snowy, with many wet days as well.
What does this mean for Nebraska father frost?
The jetstream is going to make its first blast south to the Gulf of Mexico mid-to-late September…It also shows the first snows for central Canada around September the 20th