Sorry for the delay folks…but anyway…without further adieu, here is my updated preliminary outlook for the 2012 DJF season:
Mean & Secondary Storm Tracks:
ENSO: Currently ENSO Neutral (La Nada) conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Easterlies continue as the La Nina returns. I expect a weak La Nina for the DJF season. Currently, the subsurface waters are showing anomalies as cold as -5 around the border of regions 1+2 and region 3.
QBO: Currently the QBO is around -0.44 and rapidly descending into a healthy negative state and should average negative by Autumn (SON). A -QBO is supportive of conditions favorable for SSW events and strong Greenland Blocking.
NAO: The NAO had recently gone through a 68-Day streak of negative anomalies. It has gone positive recently, but is expected to slip back under 0 soon. I expect the NAO to average neutral to slightly positive for September and October and then average negative for the DJF timeframe with a west-based Greenland Block (-NAO) favored by other indices and trends.
AO: Trends have shown that there is a correlation to the AAO during S. Hemisphere Winter and the AO during N. Hemisphere Winter. There is also a correlation to the Summer NAO/AO and the Winter NAO/AO. I expect the AO this Winter to average on the negative side.
PDO: The PDO entered its cool, negative phase during the Winter of 2007/2008. Recently the PDO numbers experienced a serious drop from near neutral to negative around -1.5. I expect this to continue.
Other Pacific Factors: Assuming there will be an Aleutian Ridge, where that sets up is CRITICAL to this forecast verifying. If blocking in the N. Pacific is to far south or west then it COULD cause an unfavorable setup for cold air just about everywhere except the PNW. I expect a very variable PNA this Winter averaging slightly negative. I expect a -EPO.
Solar: Currently the Sun remains fairly inactive, however, Solar Wind has ramped up a little lately. I suspect the 3 CME’s the Sun ejected had something to do with that. The Sun recently had it first spotless day in a while as well. There is a Sunspot about to enter our viewing area of the Sun soon. I expect Solar Activity to remain low and for this to have a slight impact on this Winter and future Winters.
Other notes: Watch volcanic activity around the world. The more Volcanic Eruptions, the warmer the stratosphere becomes which makes favorable Greenland Blocking more likely. Also, keep an eye on the cold pool around Newfoundland and the Warm Anomalies in the Hudson Bay, around the Canadian Archipelago, and on the Western and Southern coast of Greenland. These are typical oceanic signs of a prolonged -NAO period. One last thing, keep an eye on the warm water anomalies off the east coast. Come Fall and Winter, this could make things favorable for Nor’Easters.
That is all. I hope you enjoy my updated Preliminary Winter (DJF) 2012 Outlook.
*A snowfall forecast was not included and will not be until closer to Winter.
*WARNING: BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT mean that snowfall will be below normal. Remember that 1 inch of rain equates to 1 foot of snow.