Sorry for the delay folks…but anyway…without further adieu, here is my updated preliminary outlook for the 2012 DJF season:
Temperatures:
Precipitation:
Mean & Secondary Storm Tracks:
Discussion:
ENSO: Currently ENSO Neutral (La Nada) conditions are present across the equatorial Pacific. Easterlies continue as the La Nina returns. I expect a weak La Nina for the DJF season. Currently, the subsurface waters are showing anomalies as cold as -5 around the border of regions 1+2 and region 3.
QBO: Currently the QBO is around -0.44 and rapidly descending into a healthy negative state and should average negative by Autumn (SON). A -QBO is supportive of conditions favorable for SSW events and strong Greenland Blocking.
NAO: The NAO had recently gone through a 68-Day streak of negative anomalies. It has gone positive recently, but is expected to slip back under 0 soon. I expect the NAO to average neutral to slightly positive for September and October and then average negative for the DJF timeframe with a west-based Greenland Block (-NAO) favored by other indices and trends.
AO: Trends have shown that there is a correlation to the AAO during S. Hemisphere Winter and the AO during N. Hemisphere Winter. There is also a correlation to the Summer NAO/AO and the Winter NAO/AO. I expect the AO this Winter to average on the negative side.
PDO: The PDO entered its cool, negative phase during the Winter of 2007/2008. Recently the PDO numbers experienced a serious drop from near neutral to negative around -1.5. I expect this to continue.
Other Pacific Factors: Assuming there will be an Aleutian Ridge, where that sets up is CRITICAL to this forecast verifying. If blocking in the N. Pacific is to far south or west then it COULD cause an unfavorable setup for cold air just about everywhere except the PNW. I expect a very variable PNA this Winter averaging slightly negative. I expect a -EPO.
Solar: Currently the Sun remains fairly inactive, however, Solar Wind has ramped up a little lately. I suspect the 3 CME’s the Sun ejected had something to do with that. The Sun recently had it first spotless day in a while as well. There is a Sunspot about to enter our viewing area of the Sun soon. I expect Solar Activity to remain low and for this to have a slight impact on this Winter and future Winters.
Other notes: Watch volcanic activity around the world. The more Volcanic Eruptions, the warmer the stratosphere becomes which makes favorable Greenland Blocking more likely. Also, keep an eye on the cold pool around Newfoundland and the Warm Anomalies in the Hudson Bay, around the Canadian Archipelago, and on the Western and Southern coast of Greenland. These are typical oceanic signs of a prolonged -NAO period. One last thing, keep an eye on the warm water anomalies off the east coast. Come Fall and Winter, this could make things favorable for Nor’Easters.
That is all. I hope you enjoy my updated Preliminary Winter (DJF) 2012 Outlook.
*A snowfall forecast was not included and will not be until closer to Winter.
*WARNING: BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION DOES NOT mean that snowfall will be below normal. Remember that 1 inch of rain equates to 1 foot of snow.
so, if th almanac says belownormal precip that’s just rain and it could bemore snow? I guess it just means fo exampleif yu normally get 2 inchs of rain a week in the winter and it’s very cold and they forecast 1 inch a eek this could make 12 inches of snow a week rather than 24 inches?
No, everywhere in the country experiences a virtual drought during the Winter with most locations only averaging 1-3″ of rain a Winter. This equates to snow. For example, I average 10″ of snow a Winter. So that would be about .75″ of Rain. So if you get a very wet period during Winter, you can still see a lot of snow. But the rest of the Winter could be dry and not see as much liquid precipitation so storms would be harder to come by. It’s complicated to explain but yeah, thats how it works.
To answer your question Fatima20, the answer is “yes”. It be noted (someone correct me if I’m wrong) that there are a number of factors that determine precip-to-snowfall ratios. Although the general rule of thumb is 10:1 (inches of snow:inch of rain), it’s possible to get as high as 20 inches of snow from a mere inch of rain!
Thank you! Thats what I was trying to say. But it came out confusing and garbled because of an overstressed brain.
When u say -2 does that only mean well be 2 degrees below average or exactly what does that mean?Say if average is 50?
If you’re in the blue area between the -2 line and the -4 line it means your Winter temps will average 2-4 degrees below normal. If your Winter time avg is 50 then your Winter time avg this year would range from 48-46.
Thank you for these great maps FatherFrost! Hoping for a repeat 2010-2011 winter, lol!
I like this prediction. Lol. Looking good Sir Frost.
Okay Guys…I’m a little weather slow
So Fatherfrost you’re basically saying that you think that for Virginia we might be a bit above average in temperatures and snowfall this winter? Forgive me for being weather illiterate.
Oh yeah…one more thing; what the heck is DJF?
Um no snowlover…VA is clearly in below normal tempeartures and near normal precip. lol.
DJF stands for December/January/February which are the 3 months considered meteorological Winter.
Thanks FatherFrost for not laughing at me, and for educating me:) Duh….I racked my brain trying to figure out DJF. Guess I’m the only one who couldn’t get it. Or the only one not ashame to ask:)
your winter scenario for 11/12 season looks like the one from last year. no offense but I think midwest/ lower grt lakes are way over due for bad winter.
If by bad Winter, you mean a warm/dry one then yes…as is the East Coast. However, the teleconnections dont support that outcome this Winter. So..maybe next go around.
Thanks for the update FatherFrost, and Colorado is a perfect place to see all different examples of moisture content in snowpacks I have to say though, one very tricky area to forecast accurately is indeed the front range of the rockies…especially between Cheyenne, WY and Raton, NM for instance, Colorado Springs averages around 43 inches of snow a year, however Monument, where I live averages a little over 110 inches of snow a year, last year was pretty scary though…when we got less than 30 inches of snow for the whole year in Monument and less than 15 in Colorado Springs, and most of it was very dry snow, in combination of unusual warmth, including an abnormally long Indian Summer and an abnormally far northern storm track due to high pressure blocking all pacific storms from reaching beyond the continental divide plus a nearly non-existant subtropical jet which is needed for Albuquerque lows, resulted in extreme drought in most of eastern Colorado, especially southeastern Colorado. by the way, please tell the other forecasters at Farmer’s Almanac that their forecast for nice temps and very wet in Colorado was actually quite on par with what actually happened, we have had an unusually wet end of July and beginning of August, including a beast of a storm that dropped nearly half a foot of rain in some parts of El Paso County in a single day, and much more active for thunderstorms than usual, so thanks for working very hard to pin that down, I appreciate it alot, I am relieved that is was a wet summer for us, and I am hopeful that if this summer was so wet, that we might stay on a similar pattern this winter and might just be a little snowier than normal, especially in Monument and along the Palmer Divide, so we can continue to shrink this drought that devastated us last winter, but you never know…Colorado is a very tricky state…no 2 years or seasons tend to bring the same conditions as the last, I will keep watching those skies though, since I am a bit of a weather fanatic
WOW !!! Great maps Fatherfrost !!! I feel this same way. I think your on target, with the signs from nature we could be getting a bad one. Dont you think it will be a early fall and winter ?? Karen
Hey Fatherfrost,
I love your DJF maps. Your a very good weatherman. I understand all the maps expect the precipitation one. In my area it says -5%-+5% whats that mean?
Dan
Thank you very much Dan. And that means near normal liquid precip.
Well Spellbound, I would pay special attention to animals…like squirrels, if they have far bushier than normal tails, or if they look surprizingly fatter than you are used to…it could mean you are in for a bad winter, one thing I am seeing lately, is that many trees are changing already, and a few smaller ones are even at their peak, although, that’s a tough call about the winter, because I am not sure if they changed because of the premonition of an early arrival of winter, or if it is a product of remaining drought…hard to say regarding that one I think, but yes, there are many signs out there that seem to be pointing to a more severe winter, or even an early arrival, but the question is…how many of those signs are really 100% reliable, or how many do we know well enough to make a call like that, being the weather nut that I am, I share the frustration of other meteorologists and weather enthusiasts in understanding just how difficult it can truly be to release a forecast that is right on par with what actually happens, because even some of the smallest elements, especially those unforseen, can have a dramatic impact, and can completely change the results to something far different than our original predictions were, forecasting so far in advance is very tricky, because even one little change, can mean that your forecast is suddenly way off. That is precisely why I give the forecasters at Farmer’s Almanac alot of credit, because they make the difficult calls like that, and even take the potential changes into consideration, and from what I can see, are typically very close to what actually happens, but just keep in mind, no matter what you do as a weather watcher/ forecaster, the weather will always throw you some curve balls, so it’s nearly impossible to be 100% right every single time.
Thanks snowlover,fatherfrost,and sdgam169 for explaining the snow ratios and stuff. not to be embarassed snowlover, because I wondered what DJF was too. I guess instead of my usual winter temps on average, I will have my average temps based on these type of maps. That’s what this site is here for is to learn. You are teaching a good weather leson here right now Fatherfrost. I think Virginia will se a lot of snow this year. We’ve been waiting for a bad winter here for a long time, and I’ve been anticipating it! We’re in a cool,crisp,breezy Indian Summer here already!