The NAO has some persistence to it from winter to winter, and the Atlantic SST’s are where it “saves” that persistence during the spring and summer. (Note that we are now in September, so the files have been loaded already, so to say… the current SST’s are of no consequence). Granted, the persistence is fairly weak, but going with the same state as last winter is still slightly better than flipping a coin, given no other information… it is even better, though not overwhelmingly so, if the SSTs of the spring and summer match the pattern from the last winter. This year the April-August SST’s are pointing negative once again, yet not as overwhelmingly so as last year. Sunspot area, which is what I go by (since it is a more reliable indicator of solar activity than sunspot number and the record goes farther back than 10.7 flux or Ap index), has gone up, but is still well below every cycle (since 1874) except for #14 (1910′s… during which there was a pretty epic string of winters if COOP data is to be believed). What interests me more, though, is the 3-5 year lag in the long-term pattern… the magnetism had a step change in October 2005, and it wasn’t until spring 2009 that we really started to see the effects on the AO. If this is true, then next winter corresponds to an even lower point in the magnetic field than last winter did, and it corresponds to the very depths of the SSN/10.7 minimum. Right now we are at the top of the 6-7 month pseudocycle that the Sun has experienced lately… I forsee a drop in solar activity starting in October and continuing through at least January, with the sunspot number bottoming out in January or February before rising again. Not quite as well-placed as 2010-2011′s drop, but still a pretty good time to have one. Oh, and to anyone using the Holton-Tan relationships, you need to still count this as a solar minimum… it is getting closer to an in-between, but I don’t think we will see true “maximum” (by late 20th century standards) conditions for a long time (at least 20 years, possibly much longer). Based on multiple factors (including the smashed-record –NAO summer), I believe there will be a -NAO block averaging about -1.5. It will be overwhelmingly west-based… the indicators for a WEST-BASED -NAO are nearly off the charts. Based on the same summer correlation (which is much higher at .35 for the AO [it was around .1 for the NAO]), and the summer AO, which was third only to 2009-2010 and 1958-1959, I think the AO will average around -2.5. The EPO is definitely the teleconnection to watch… based on the +OLR in the Indian Ocean, the EPO should be raging negative… but it’s not, currently. However, when the genuine wildcard is whether there will be a double-block or a very rare triple-block dominant pattern, things are still looking up… especially because the EPO is notoriously difficult to predict.

EDIT: Also, a -PNA average is pretty much a given. The STJ will be more active than last winter but less so than 2009-2010. That leaves plenty of room for error lol. Something tells me the STJ will be more active than the borderline weak/moderate Niña would suggest, though.

tl;dr: It’s gonna be cold.