weather changes, and snow for the great lakes

Posted By: adogg30  Posted On: Nov 3rd, 2011  Filed Under: Weather

when will the lower great lakes see their first measurable snow fall cause next wk it supposed to be in the lower 50′s and high 40′s with a chance of rain for three days? and my last question is do you see any changes in the weather pattern in the next 10 to 15 days?

  1. 02mxzx136 says:

    looks like most mets are seeing a pattern change around mid this time the the cold air out west will start to make its way east,but how far east is the question right 15 day forcast has upper 30′s for highs by the 14th and low 30′s by the 17th.i know it’s a long way out but it’s coming just enjoy the nice weather while it lasts.

  2. sapporo1 says:

    Well, it is a trough, and it will eventually make it’s way east, the question is…will it stay as deep as it is out here? or will it moderate a little as it heads east…that is a difficult call, just because no algorythm can possibly 100% accurately prdict what the jet stream will do, since there are just way too many unforseeable variables that can change it in a heartbeat, but my best guess is, there may still be a deep enough trough later as it pushes east to bring the first snow to Wisconsin and maybe even the Chicago area, but, the cold air would not likely last too long, as another trough is expected to form here in the west, which would quickly bring warmer weather back to the eastern half of the nation.
    That also raises some profound questions about the possibility of several wicked spells of severe weather in the south, especially Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, west Tennessee and much of the Mississippi valley, I’d be on your toes if I were you guys, and pay heed to the forecasts in the next few weeks, because it could get real rough in some areas.
    As for the exact patterns over the next few months…this La Nina is so weak, and there are so many other factors controlling the weather patterns, that it’s anyone’s guess what may happen, but I would still go out on a limb and say that the core of the cold this year would still likely be over the dead center of the nation this winter, especially over the Dakotas and Nebraska, with colder than normal temps for a good chunk of winter through Illinois, Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota, Colorado, Wyoming, Montana, Kansas, Michigan and Wisconsin, with many cold intrusions for the Ohio Valley, as well as the Northeast, and an occasional cold spell for Tenessee, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Washington, Oregon and far northern California.
    As for precipitation, I would guess just because of the pattern that has continued through the fall, above average precip would dominate Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri, Colorado, Wyoming, Nebraska, and nearly all of the entire eastern seaboard from Boston through Miami.
    Snowfall should be above average in Wyoming, Colorado, Iliinois, Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Missouri, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia and much of the Northeast, with slightly above average across Washington and Oregon, with around normal for Tennessee, Arkansas, northern fringes of Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina.
    but warmth should rule out much if not all snow chances for most of the deep south, with the exception of north Texas, which could see some wicked ice storms this year, and absolutely no winter at all for far southern California, southern Arizona, and only a slight chance of any winter for southern New Mexico, northern New Mexico sould fare a little better, with only slightly below normal precip and snowfall, Minnesota is looking like they will have a little bit drier and very cold winter, as will the Dakotas and Montana, the heavier precip will probably be forced southward by the extremely cold air intrusions, as the high pressure systems from Canada bringing the extremely cold air tends to dry out the atmosphere and force any other moisture farther south, the exceptions would be areas immediately along the northern Great Lakes, which would fare better for snowfall…sorry northern Plains, but if it’s going to get as cold as it’s threatening to, then it wont be as snowy as you may hope for, but we just to the south of you would be clobbered by big snow events, especially the Front Range, the Central Plains, the lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast.

  3. sapporo1 says:

    But who knows,  for all I know I could be dead wrong, that is just my synopsis of what I have seen and what seems as though it will continue through winter.

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