White Christmas?

Posted By: amy n  Posted On: Nov 18th, 2011  Filed Under: Weather

Hello all of my fellow snow-lovers!

Although the snowstorm of October was a welcome (albeit early) surprise here in Bethel, CT., the snow quickly melted and we returned to almost 70 degree weather within a week.  Highly unusual, if you ask me.   It is now nice and chilly, but the temps. are forecasted to go up again, even in early December, they have us at about 50 and rainy.  So here is my question for the weather prediction gurus- what are the odds for those of us who live in Bethel of seeing a White Christmas?  Every year, it is my only wish.  Do you think that it will come true for me this year?  I would appreciate any response.  Thank you!

  1. Weatherfan says:

    It’s rather tough to say but it would all depend on how the pattern evolves once we progress through early December.  As of now, it appears the modeling wants to get some kind of pattern change going for the first week of December with a massive trough that swings into the Eastern US as ridging finally builds across the Rockies.  In this scenario, it is thanks to that pesky vortex that finally retrogrades from the Alaskan and Yukon areas, allowing the cold air to seep more south and east instead of pouring into the West.  If (and a big if at that) this were to verify, along with a developing +PNA and a NAO/AO that decreases toward the negative side, it may occur at the right time frame to set the stage for a potential for some system that brings a White Christmas for your area.  Now of course, we don’t have to have all of these become favorable, as last year proved that despite a -PNA, -PDO, +QBO, and a moderate to strong La Nina, the strong blocking (amongst other supporting factors) dominated the pattern and allowed systems to affect a good chunk of the East.
    Will it happen?  I can’t guarantee that.  I also can’t guarantee that the models will hold on to this solution.  It may show this pattern another few runs and then lose it all together or bring in the change at a later time (e.g. mid-December), which by then we could be cutting it close.  Heck, precipitation is hard enough to predict beyond a week so we don’t know for sure if a system would be present around Christmas.  It’s too early for specifics, especially believing anything past 10 days but the trend has been for some form of change to kick in just in time for meteorological winter so it’s worth keeping our eyes on.  It also helps that given your location, you stand a better chance than I do since I live further south here in NC.  I know this appears to be a lot to take in, but I’m basically saying that there’s a chance of some sort for you in store.  We shall see what happens in the near future.  Keep the faith! :)

  2. illinoise says:

    I totally agree with weatherfan here, predicting this far out is a wishing well at this point, basically at this point your going to believe what you wanna hear, if you want a Christmas blizzard and someone predicts that you latch onto that idea.

    Like weatherfan also said, the patten seems to do a flip flop, the trough builds in the east, while I gotta say having mild weather sure has been nice, but it’s the holidays bring on some snow and cold temps.

  3. amy n says:

    Omigoodness-just as I checked this, “White Christmas” came on the tv!
    Anyway, interstate lover, small world! I am guessing that you are also hoping for a white Christmas.
    Weatherman, thanks for your input. I guess you are right, we will see what happens. Many of you are so involved with what is going on with the weather, I was just wondering if there are any predictions or thoughts going on out there as far as the holidays are concerned. I really am hoping for a White Christmas! I wonder if anyone else is going to have any predictions?

  4. Anthonypilone01 says:

    Yeah and I got a strong feeling us east coasters(including mid atlantic) will have a very good share this winter – better chances for more snow, than what we had last year

  5. sapporo1 says:

    Doesn’t sound like the models favor much of a chance of a white Christmas for eastern Colorado, but like you and I both know, the models are nothing more than algorithms compiled and determined by a computer to take a wild guess at what the atmosphere will possibly trend toward.
    Just so everyone knows, we understand the atmosphere about as well as we do our oceans, so in other words, we can come out with all the models we want, but it doesn’t really matter how good it looks if it doesn’t even come close to what actually happens, for instance, I have seen freak snowstorms pop up seemingly out of nowhere before, due to the fact that the models never saw a low developing, or at least never saw a disturbance as strengthening into a powerful low pressure.
    It has happened before, so don’t always rely on models alone to determine the weather for your area, sometimes you just have to go on gut instinct, and what you see actually happening in the atmosphere and then put two and two together.

  6. Anthonypilone01 says:

    @sapporol
    yeah, I agree and personally, I like Weatherfan’s and fatima20′s winter outlook so far  :)

  7. ShawnM says:

    Will central Missouri have a white Christmas?

  8. amy n says:

    Interstate lover-small world! How funny, both of us from the same area, both snow lovers! Most people around here hate the snow, but I love it, and I say that if you don’t like the snow, move to Florida!
    I love your confidence about us having a White Christmas, but what makes you so sure? I sure hope that you are right! Have you seen the weather for the next couple of week? Temps up and down like a roller coaster! I just want it to be cold!

  9. fatima20 says:

    it’ll be interesting around christmas and that’s for sure! there should be snow in the mid atlantic aroud virginia for sure. my acorn forecast has predicted this.

  10. Jayne1954 says:

    Fatima, Does that apply to west virginia also?

  11. Anthonypilone01 says:

    @fatimas20
    I’ll bet my money on your predictions. Cuz I cannot take this stupid mild conditions, even though it still feels chilly and that the cold’ll come my way in time and have more snow than we had last year for the entire winter.

  12. Anthonypilone01 says:

    http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/thanksgiving-week-holiday-trav/58053

    weather channel’s winter forecast sucks big time and find it very inaccurate and  I do go by it!

  13. Anthonypilone01 says:

    http://www.accuweather.com  sorry the last outlook didn’t turn up in other link. But I am sure you can find it on here somewhere. But again, their outlook sucks, i find it inaccurate and I hope to god their wrong and I expect colder and more wintry weather for the northeast/mid-Atlantic region this winter

  14. ShawnM says:

    Hey Fatima, do you think central Missouri will have a white Christmas this year?:)

  15. Anthonypilone01 says:

    @fatima20 I do hope to see snow in December(which we usually don’t get any snow that time of the winter). Being since the holidays are around the corner, it would surely amplify my Christmas spirit. let alone having snow for the rest of the winter this year.

  16. fatoldladyinpjs says:

    Here in Wisconsin, the pattern is we almost always have a white Christmas.  It may not be much, but it always seems to snow on Christmas eve.  We rarely have a brown Christmas.  Ask someone who’s been around a while, like age 50 or above, about local weather patterns.

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