Well, I don’t have much to say but we might have a White……New Year. Here’s what the good ol’ 12z ECWMF has to say about it…
Finally!
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Well, I don’t have much to say but we might have a White……New Year. Here’s what the good ol’ 12z ECWMF has to say about it…
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Here’s another anomaly (although a mundane one): precip in the Pac NW has been running about 1-10% of normal for December. For example, total precip at Sea-Tac has been 0.06 inches so far (to dec 17th) which represents a departure from normal of 2.97 inches or about 2% of average. Even Quilaute on the NW tip is running less than 10% of normal at 0.61 in so far compared to an 6.73 inch average to date. So its a real winter drought rendered invisible due to widespread and consistent low cloud and fog. This is mainly due to persistent ridging along most of the west coast from Central CA north and a positive AO during the last 4 weeks. Ensembles suggest a dry pattern thru the end of the month but there are some hints the AO is collapsing. The analysis in fact shows AO negative today for the first time in around a month. The ensembles for the next week indicate a rebound to AO positive (but the spread is huge) and dynamic models like GEM/GFS build a ridge over the pole next week. So its possible the artic will cool off next week, which means most of the lower 48 may finally get some winter this season. Link – AO analysis/forecast from CPC.