2012-2013 Preliminary Winter Forecast
I have to say, I don’t have too much information to share as a lot of pieces are too far out, so this is more of an examination of the ENSO conditions.
This past winter we were in a fake La Nina. It had a La Nina, but with El Nino weather conditions resulting. This summer, we are expected to have a neutral ENSO condition, and by this winter we may even have a slight El Nino. Here’s a forecast for DJF (December, January, February) 2012-2013 off the Scripps ENSO Model.
The Scripps Model is forecasting a east-Based El Nino. There is indeed a difference between west based and east based. However, we won’t dig into that because it is too far out to tell at this point.
Here’s the average precipitation and temperature (respectively) results from weak El Ninos.
A weak El Nino typically brings slightly below average temperatures to the country, while bringing more precipitation to the East Coast and below normal rainfall for the Southeast.
Because it is so far out and I don’t have too much to work with, here is what I will say:
•Weak El Nino likely
•Probably more precipitation for the East Coast
See how this summer goes but there are saying that its going to be very hot conditions in the northern country above normal heat and storms this winter coming could turn out to be warm because the lakes are getting warmer with less snow of winter of 2011 & 2012 this winter we will have strong el nino and the el nino will be moderate next month transition into moderate strong el nino this summer. Henry Margusity is saying that the soi is going -40 which will go into enso conditions to be verified.
I don’t think that it makes sense to say anything along the lines of “well this summer looks like it will be very warm, therefore the following winter will be very warm.” I think that the summer of 2010 followed by the winter of 2010-2011 was a good example of that.
I have always forecasted using solar magnetic parameters and the coinciding plasma-electric flow striations within the heliosphere, unfortunately since the Sun has been shutting down the magnetic parameters i relied on have vanished.
My forecasting accuracy has also vanished, ive been dealt a facefull of humble pie. So although I would weight my early thoughts lightly, i predict something huge is on the way during 2013. A major climate change of some sort.
i am still in the process of finding a way around my ‘magnetism problem’, but i am making good progress, well at least I hope so.
thanks for the map
I live on the very eastern end of Long Island, in New York State. What will the winter forecast be like for me?
Dan your out by Montauk? i live on Long Island too