Hello everyone. It’s been a while. I see there are quite a few…erm…opinions, hunches, et cetera about this Winter on here.
Let me offer some science:
Currently, we are under an El Nino watch. The CPC is saying there is a 50% chance of an El Nino this Winter. Indeed, waters in the equatorial pacific are quite warm compared to last year and we are well on our way to such an event.
Models are calling for a weak El Nino, but just the other day the update came in and now one model is calling close to a moderate El Nino.
At this point, (TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT) the long-range seasonal model forecast are calling for a cooler than normal winter in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, near normal for the Southeast, and warmer than normal in the West. In regards to precipitation, they are calling for a very wet D-J-F across the entire eastern half of the nation. REMEMBER, this WILL change.
Solar wise, the Sun is approaching solar maximum and will reach maximum early next year. When it does peak, it will be the weakest maximum in over a century. This could have long-term effects on the Earth down the road. Stay tuned.
The NAO, AO, and PNA are iffy this far out. That’s more of a wait and see situation. But we will need high-latitude blocking (-NAO/-AO/+PNA) if we want to have even a chance at a good winter.