A scientific opinion about this upcoming Winter…..

Posted By: FatherFrost  Posted On: Jun 13th, 2012  Filed Under: Weather

Hello everyone. It’s been a while. I see there are quite a few…erm…opinions, hunches, et cetera about this Winter on here.

Let me offer some science:

Currently, we are under an El Nino watch. The CPC is saying there is a 50% chance of an El Nino this Winter. Indeed, waters in the equatorial pacific are quite warm compared to last year and we are well on our way to such an event.

Models are calling for a weak El Nino, but just the other day the update came in and now one model is calling close to a moderate El Nino.

At this point, (TAKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT) the long-range seasonal model forecast are calling for a cooler than normal winter in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, near normal for the Southeast, and warmer than normal in the West. In regards to precipitation, they are calling for a very wet D-J-F across the entire eastern half of the nation. REMEMBER, this WILL change.

Solar wise, the Sun is approaching solar maximum and will reach maximum early next year. When it does peak, it will be the weakest maximum in over a century. This could have long-term effects on the Earth down the road. Stay tuned.

The NAO, AO, and PNA are iffy this far out. That’s more of a wait and see situation. But we will need high-latitude blocking (-NAO/-AO/+PNA) if we want to have even a chance at a good winter. 

  1. snowlover says:

    This sounds good thus far.  Worth keeping our eyes and ears open!  :)  Thank FatherFrost!

  2. buddy17474 says:

    Eh, as long as I don’t hear above avergerage temps and below average precipatation for the south, then I’m good.

  3. Ohiobiss79 says:

    How do you think Colorado Springs Colorado will fair this winter?

  4. KellyinVT says:

    Thank you for the explanation.  I read an article on the NOAA results but don’t understand entirely how an El Nino will affect where I’m going to be living soon (VT, clearly). 

  5. tornadoes2 says:

    the solar cycle will go to super maximun lasting to 2012 to 2014 solar cycle this year will start September 2012 to May 2013 its going to be very bad the life we are in its going to be horrific, there will be food shortage and famines all over the world and now india is turning into famine country because of the global warming its going to effect us late in the year to early next year the sun will go into apoclypse and having solar katrina 50 times greater early next year the winter will be warmer and hot, we are getting very close to have very vulnerable life and its right around the corner better get prepared, the mayans calender could be right if we continue to see warmer weather this winter then its going to be in the cards.

  6. FatherFrost says:

    The Mayan calendar never said the world was going to end, therefore your argument is invalid. I don’t mean to sound like a prude, but I’m not seeing any info to back up what you say? Would you mind providing something to back up your thoughts rather than just running around, sensationalizing, and spreading fear?

    I would greatly appreciate it. 

  7. undercover921 says:

    True,,  I need some facts to backup Mayans stuff.  I can agree to a point that they follow the stars and astro finding but to stretch out information that far in the future. Tough push… I would like more fact informtion and patterns of on going information.

    but its fun to hear about it…      love watching the History Channel on it. 

  8. snowboi1 says:

    Yeah u notice tornadoes2 isnt responding to the above 2 posts.lol

  9. tornadoes2 says:

    the proove will be trust for december 21 and if we have the winter we had 2006 2007 winter warmth el nino mark my words december 21 will be day of excitement paranoium and freaky it will be alot worsed then 2003 and 2006 year 2003 the grid lock was turned off hit the power grids but the sun cycle was low mininium this cycle we are in liked the noaa are saying that the major space weather is coming in the fall time its going to be very hot that month only god knows when the time is right for us when we r suffering, there will be acts of god coming so be it. anyways the meds are calling for a warm winter for all northern country and no winter for the whole year this time keep on searching for el nino this year august we will find out if we are going to have strong el nino coming from the oceans el nino popping up and its getting very freaking out there in the pacfic ocean the water is warming up.

  10. TheMaineMan says:

    The “meds” are calling for no winter? Since when do doctors issue weather forecasts?
     
    I’m not really making any winter predictions yet… at this point I’d call for autumn to start right around the average time (September) and am enjoying summer since it has actually been quite pleasant thus far. No complaints.

  11. sapporo1 says:

    You know, I couldn’t help but noticed that ohiobiss79′s question got completely ignored, does someone want to indulge and enlighten their question?

  12. sapporo1 says:

    And by the way lol, I am inclined to agree, since when does a medical doctor have even the slightest clue about how to predict weather patterns and anomalies?
    That isn’t even anywhere close to their field of study, how repugnant is all I can say

  13. i love nicole says:

    You know, if they say that this solar maximum is going to be so horrific, yet it’s supposed to be the weakest in several decades, then why have a lot of these forecasted cataclysmic events not happened in a year with a much stronger solar max? I mean, these solar maximums happen, approximately every 11 years or so. So what about 2001-02? Or 1990-91? Or 1979-80, 1968-69, 1957-58, 1946-47, or 1935-36, etc. now granted there was a lot of drought and fires in 2002, but no “cataclysmic” events to speak of. Also granted, Mount Saint Helens blew its top in 1980, severe tornadoes in 1958, and severe heat in the summers of 1947 and 1936. So I mean yeah, there were some weather related events that took place on some of those years, but nothing cataclysmic. Now, however, there was some event where telegraph wires and what-not were catching fire, due to a solar storm. And after tracing back every 11 years, starting with 2012-2013, I noticed that 1858-1859 would have in fact been a solar maximum. A strong one at that. But, anyways, based on all this, I do not believe, for one second, that 2012-13 is going to be a catastrophic year. Major weather events, such as a huge hurricane, large scale tornado outbreak, moderate volcanic eruption, or even a pretty hefty earthquake would not be out of the question though. And I could be proven wrong, so not to sound like a no-it-all. But I still do stand by my prediction of an exceptionally cold and snowy winter of 2012-2013. 

  14. TheMaineMan says:

    Because the whole “2012″ thing is just something that somebody made up. Even the Mayans, who supposedly originated the idea, did not actually believe this. A major catastrophe is no more likely this year than it is any other year.

  15. FatherFrost says:

    The whole “2012 thing” isn’t at all made up, MaineMan… Everyone’s preconceived notion of what this year is and what is happening is what’s made up though. For whatever reason, in recent year’s the media did a little digging, found out the mayan calendar ended on the day of 12/21/12 and decided to hype it up all over the planet as the end.

    This is not what the Maya predicted though. What they wrote about 2012, was much different. In fact, the only thing ending, is this current paradigm, this current age in human history. That is what happens on the day of the Winter Solstice, according to them.

    The Maya were not the only ones to predict this great “Shift of Ages,” however. The Egyptians, the Greeks, the Sumerians, the Chinese, the ancient Hindi people of modern India, and Native Americans in both north and south America all spoke of the years leading up to 2012, the year of 2012, and the years following 2012 as times of great change, a time when humanity would be at a crossroads. They spoke of a time when we are facing great darkness, but also the immense potential to create great light, as well.

    So no this isn’t the physical death of everything. Perhaps only the spiritual and cultural collapse and subsequent rebirth of human society. 

  16. tornadoes2 says:

    the el nino is building streanght from pacific and its coming very soon the humans will shift the planet backwards and we will go shortage of food very soon things will get worsed so be ready we have been getting power outages in southwestern ontario in michigan too bc derecho storms we had so u better be prepared stock up ur food.

  17. blanche m 20 says:

    wondering the winter weather for midwest 2012-2013 i missed the cold and the snow last year. love the winters of the seventies

  18. sapporo1 says:

    You know, I noticed that unless we have some historic natural disaster, nobody really ever pays any mind, nor really cares about Colorado, I am begining to feel like maybe I should quit posting here, because my questions seem to consistantly go unanswered, or nobody really ever responds to my posts either, it really kind of bumbs me out and makes me feel like that we Coloradoans are left out most of the time, and that we don’t really matter to anyone, I do sincerely appreciate those who have given me any feedback at all, it is really the reason I am still here, without you few who at least acknowledge that I exist, I wouldn’t really bother getting involved in these discussions, I love to talk about the weather and it’s impacts, but it makes it hard to want to post anything when you feel as thogh you stand alone all the time.

  19. NCduke says:

    @Sapporo 1, It’s colorado, how do you think winter will be like? Cold with snow, whether its a lot of snow or a little no one knows and no one can give you an accurate answer they can only speculate or make up things. Whatever they say will have changed by the time winter comes along. 

    “So no this isn’t the physical death of everything. Perhaps only the spiritual and cultural collapse and subsequent rebirth of human society.” 

    @FatherFrost, I like my hallucinogens just as much as the next man but you have lost the plot. 

  20. Ohiobiss79 says:

    @Sapporo1- I agree it seems as though our post just get ignored. I am in Manitou Springs Coloroda, but even when I lived in Ohio I went through the same scenerio, but I keep coming. I will talk weather for you.

    Stephanie

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