Recently, weatheradvance.com releasesd their fall forecast, I have to say in all honesty, don’t buy it, not for one second, it is just too cookie cutter to be even realistic, I would say that it’s somebody’s wishful thinking, and it looks just like the exact pattern we are in right now, and in reality, it’s not really logical that the pattern we are in now wont change in the near future, just pointing out what’s realistic, it doesn’t mean that it’s not how it will pan out, but I am just saying that realistically patterns typically change every couple of weeks and sometimes from week to week, so if you ask me, I would say that this fall could be a tough call.
Weather advance possibly jumping the gun.
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probably since it is made by a 16 yr old and not a professional. one thats gone to school and stuff. In the end Mother Nature does what she wants.
Couldn’t agree more
I agree, however large-scale patterns can exist on nationwide and sometimes global scales and do not change in a matter of weeks. Smaller scale patterns however, can.
It would be funnie if that 16 year old kid who hasn’t went to weather school was right and all his maps came true. Don’t knock a kid or etc till he is proved wrong.. Gotta give him a chance at least…
Dan
i agree with Grandin 100%
@Grandin, not knocking the kid at all, for all we know he could have it totally pegged and all of us are wrong, just saying the same thing that Father Frost just clarified, though there are large scale atterns such as El Nino that affect global overall patterns, on a slightly smaller scale, just like last year, there are little elements that can drastically alter those patterns, last year was a perfect example, because of La Nina alone, by all means it should have been very cold and snowy for most of the winter, especially with a negative PDO to boot, however, other certain things did not come together that were necessary to make that happen, like high off Greenland, the AO and NAO staying positive and such which is why all of our predictions were wrong and we all were stuck in a face full of humble pie, so I have nothing against the kid or his forecast personally, I guess I just personally feel like this year is shaping up to be another one that is really hard to keep up with, so saying that the weather will be so cookie cutter that way might be jumping the gun if he is basing the fall forecast off the current patterns, as it seems that the overall weather in the US has been sketchy, and kind of tough to follow, such as that genious Paul Pastelok’s prediction that the bubble of high pressure would remain over the midwest until at least October, that sure blew up in his face, it shifted into the far southern plains, and then into the west coast.
As for myself, I think I will give up on saying who will have what kind of a winter at this point, I will wait until the facts begin to present themselves clearly around late September/ early October, by then, we all should have a pretty good idea of a general trend going into the winter.
i agree sapporo1 by late spetember early october we should know how this winter will be. But there are signs around here allready maybe we will have a good winter. ive been seeing huge spiders with really large webs. the squirrals have been bust in the trees allready. and i did see a arrow shaped flock of geese heading north and seen like maybe 8 foggy mornings so far in the month of august. I been lookin for the wolly worm but i think it’s to early for that still. And Paul Pastelok’s word is a grain of salt along with anything that comes from accuweather. And cool matthew is only 16 he is just a rookie but a damn good one i admire his work and love his outlook maps..
Dan
the geese were heading south** Sorry
I have been seeing those signs myself, I was just in Steamboat Springs yesterday, and I am seeing the same thing on the western slopes as I am seeing here in Palmer Lake, the leaves are all changing, it is officially fall here, the normal august flowers are blooming, but the grass really didn’t green up for very long, it really just looks like mid September already out there, spider webs have seemed to be in every square inch of everything, and they are high and low alike, acorns are quite numerous, and already maturing, same with the thousands upon thousands of fruits and berries that are making the bushes and trees seem as though they are red, black and purple and such, weather is finally getting cooler and cooler, 70s are common now, with even some upper 60s expected for highs tomorrow, so yeah, I agree, the signs are out there, but we will see what happens.