The weather centre has been closely monitoring not only ocean temps, but also what the atmosphere is doing, and I have to say, that even though I may not always agree with the overall forecast, I still have deep respect to the amount of work and painstaking detail that is used to map out a forecast, that being said, this is what they are saying.
Although the sea surface temperatures over the Nino regions are demonstrating a well defined El Nino, the atmosphere at this point in time is rejecting the anomaly, and is apparently not ready to trasition to full on El Nino conditions, in short, we could have a fake El Nino this winter like we had a fake La Nina last year, the only analog year that they could seem to dig up is 2006-2007 .
It will certainly be very interesting to see what actually happens, and as they said on their site, if this happens again with the fake anomaly year, then all the forecasts made thus far would have been a blind shot in the dark, as at this point, if the atmosphere keeps rejecting what the ocean is saying, then it really could once again prove to be a winter that is just about anyone’ guess, and maybe none of us may be right.
Let me know what you think about that after you read their latest article, I would love to hear some feedback on your thoughts concerning that prospect.
The Weather Centre is not so sure about this El Nino now
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I know that many early forecasts have depicted conditions typical of a weak El Nino. While it isn’t an unreasonable forecast at this point, I am not yet convinced that this is what we will see, and I am reluctant to make any bold predictions at this point. I think that many people will be very surprised this winter, for better or for worse.
Just keep this in mind: In the Autumn of 2009 (NO, I’m not using this as a viable analog) the Nino struggled a lot, but by mid Autumn, it skyrocketed. In the weather, things change and change very, very fast.
Right now, much like last Autumn, it seems we have every mixed signal nature can throw at us. The important thing is, to keep an open mind.
Blocking of some sort is practically guaranteed this winter, however, where it sets up is important. Also, watch the Eurasian snowcover this fall. If it’s consistently above normal, blocking is typically more likely during Winter.
The only other thing I can think of to say, is that for the Mid-Atlantic, I hope this winter isn’t like 06-07. That was an El Nino, but it peaked in the Autumn and died out by winter, unable to affect the pattern at all. There was also no blocking that winter until it was too late. That winter we had no snow until Valentine’s Day, which amounted to a whopping 0.75″…. After that any snow that fell was flurries. We didn’t finally get more than an inch of snow until SPRING!
So, needless to say, it’s bothersome to see that winter popping up a lot as a potential analog, as it was comparable the atrocity that was last winter.
As childish as it may seem, if winter is that devoid of snow again, I may disappear from weather forums for awhile, including this one.
Why dissappear from the weather forums?
Just move to where you are guaranteed to get snow and cold no matter what the anomaly, like my birthplace of Alaska, or the Central Rockies of Colorado…God they get alot of snow there, most places averaging 200 to 400 inches a year, and occasionally can have 500+ inch years in some mountain locales.
Anyways, on a more serious note, a 2006-2007 winter would be the only type of anomaly that would make up for all the insane amounts of moisture we have been lacking, especially from the Front Range eastward to Kansas and Nebraska, Iowa as well, where the lion’s share of crops are grown in the US, or at least for wheat, corn, soybeans and many vegetables, we need a crazy winter to erase that horrible drought that is taking livelihoods, and even lives, not that I have anything against the Northeast having a snowier than average winter, though I wish everyone who gets snow would be above average, but the Northeast and Mid Atlantic for right now, are not in absolutely critical drought conditions like we are here, we need a winter of above normal precip here in the Four Corners/Rockies/Front Range and Central/ Southern Plains/Midwest region, if we don’t get at least one soon then everyone is going to suffer, because there could end up being a famine right here in the US next summer.
So, to be honest with you Father Frost, I am sort of hoping for a 2006-2007 winter, although just because they say it is going to be LIKE 06-07, doesn’t necessarily mean you guys on the east coast wont see above normal snowfall, because no two El Nino and La Nina events are ever exactly alike, so we will just have to wait and see what happens.
Ok you Guys are scaring me…..
Why are we scaring you snowlover?
By the way, don’t leave FatherFrost, it just wouldb’t be the same here without you.
Bah. I’m confident it should be good this winter.
But I guess I’ll believe it when I see it
I really can’t stand another snowless winter in the Mid-Atlantic and I’m begging for winter to turn out to be brutal and snowy.
I feel like we got cheated out of winter last year and because of that I’m just dying to get snowed in.
Exactly rainsticks! From my understanding, FatherFrost is saying that we might not have the “cold, snowy” winter that I’ve been dreaming of if the El Nino is weak or (heaven forbid) died-out! This Sapparo1 is what scares me. Was I mistaken? I’m not a weatherologist like some of you on here. What does it mean? When can we know for sure? Answers please…before I start freaking out!!!!!!!!
Wow, that one was Bull####. If we don’t get the proper snow for this year again, I’ll be mad.
If this winter will be like 06 07, I will throw a mild temper tantrun.
I would like to move north or west someday, but now is not that time. The reason I don’t move north, is because when it snows here, it’s special. It’s a rare piece of gold we don’t often see. Whereas, it would become annoying being buried in your house all winter if I lived in New England or out in the Rockies.
I will have to join in on that tantrum too buddy17474, I’ve got a closet full of winter wear that hasn’t seen the light of day since purchase
& to snowlover, I’m no meteorologist either but after I saw that, I looked up the snowfall totals for my area and it says we only got 1.5″ of snow that year!! (I live in NJ right across the river from NYC) I’ll be devastated if winter ends up being a fluke!
I have no faith at all anymore in ever getting even a good winter like back in the 80s ever again here in South Carolina.
In the end, weather always playing the waiting game. The atmosphere may be rejecting the ocean right now, but Winter is still a ways out. There is still some room for things to turn around for the better. I think this winter will be alright, even for SC. I’m no meteorologist, but I have been paying attention to nature around here. Spiders are nuts… squirrels are scurrying left and right breaking apart pine cones and whatnot. In the end, we’ll have to wait and see. No forecast is 100%, set in stone…no offence to anyone who made one of course. The weather is not a exact science. Its ALWAYS changing from second to second, minute to minute, day to day, hour to hour….y’all get the idea. Keep your heads held high, or try to anyway. Thats what I am doing.
Love your statement there Rickster, I couldn’t agree more, sometimes you just have to trust what nature is telling you, like here in Colorado, the leaves changed 2 weeks earlier than normal, as well as the pine and spruces suddenly dropped their summer needles really fast, and are now preparing for colder weather, saw squirrels gathering nuts and acorns like crazy at the end of August, but lately I haven’t really seen too many of them scurrying about, not to mention birds have been insane lately, all over the skies in some kind of frenzy, if you ask me, I would say that winter is indeed coming soon here, and from the looks of it, we could have a cold and stormy one, keyword “COULD”
As for the Northeast/ Mid Atlantic, I think you will get your snow, but I am not convinced it will be such a crazy one, I would guess that it would be closer to normal for you guys, with the usual bouts of cold and snow, but you can be a better judge of that than I can, just look at patterns taking shape around you, there are always subtle hints at what the season will bring out there, you just have to pay attention to them.
True Sapporo1. I have been paying close attention. Would you all think I’m crazy if I say that I can feel Autumn in the air? I know we have more than a week to go; and although we are predicted to have many more 80 degree days; It feels like the end of September oppose to the 2nd week. Yes, we will wait and see. Good thing we have each other to talk to this about. My Husband thinks I’m weather crazy!
I have him on wolly-worm & persimmon tree alert! 
i really wanting to know the forcast of snow in grand junction.co this year
Pelz, Grand Junction will likely have near normal temps and precip this year, maybe slightly above normal snowfall if the temperatures trend a little below normal, however I would take a look around you for what nature is saying, are the pine trees losing their summer coats?
Are the deciduous trees showing their colors? What are birds and wildlife doing?
By the way, a good majority of Colorado is under a Flood Watch tomorrow, and all mountains above 11,000 feet are under a Winter Storm Watch.
we will see over an inch of rain, possibly as much as 2 inches by Wednesday night, Pikes Peak above 11,000 feet could see as much as 14-24″of snow in the same time frame. highs for the next few days here in Palmer Lake will be in the 50s with upper 30s to low 40s for lows, and Accuweather is still hinting at the possibility of snow for us next week or next weekend, not sure how credible the forecast is, but it has been showing up in the forecast consistantly since last week, winter is definitely coming, and I for one am all too excited to see what this year will bring.