Well kids, the pattern is changing….to favor the Great Lakes to the Appalachian Mountains.
So I guess there’s not much hope for us to the east of the mountains. The models want to keep us locked in a late Summer pattern with 80′s dominating the next couple of weeks here in VA…
*Sigh* It worries me, really it does. It’s good that the pattern is evolving and moving away from last years terrible setup…but what good does it do when the current pattern would still screw your area in the winter?
The Nino is fading, there’s hardly any blocking around greenland to speak of…
The only good thing to go on is the PNA ridge over the immediate west coast and Alaska. But models are trying to break that down in 2 weeks as well.
I’m just sick of the weather. I hate it. Summer has long overstayed it’s welcome. And for next weekend being the first weekend of Fall, it sure isn’t looking like it’s gonna be very fall-like here.
Please be kidding!! I don’t really understand what you are saying?? Are you trying to say that anyone east of the Appalachian mountains is going to have another warm winter? Are you saying NJ and NYC looks like we’re not going to have a winter?
I am already panicking!!
Father Frost, those climate models are like a semi-blind guy, they can’t see past their own two feet, especially that GFS model, the ECMWF is somewhat more reliable, but in the end, they are still best guess, they can give you an idea of what kind of short term trend MIGHT be setting up, but simply cannot see all the variables that far into the future, in particular a weird year like this one, with an El Nino so weak, that it could potentially fade to neuteral by winter, which basically means that just about anything goes this year, but I will say this, I don’t think it will be such a snowless winter as you are fearing, just like here in Colorado, we will be suffering from this ridge for the next few weeks, with warmer and drier than normal conditions until the end of September, so I feel your pain, however, unlike last year, I do not believe that the AO will go positive for the entire winter again, it usually doesn’t happen that way two years in a row, or at least I have never seen that in my lifetime so far, I believe you will get your bouts of snow and cold, Father Frost, just maybe not the roaring blockbuster winter everyone keeps getting hyped about, just like it may not be so warm here as they originally thought, as the AO and clipper systems could be more generous to more locations, as well as more moisture in the areas that need it, which is a comforting possibility, but not a guarantee, and so my point being is that I believe that this winter could surprize just about everyone with more areas seeing colder and stormier bouts, hopefully some drought relief for many places, but again, we will see as nothing is set in stone just yet.
Well, this winter could end up a warm-neutral ENSO. If we can get that coupled with good greenland blocking then we could have a winter like 78-79 or 81-82 which were both colder than normal across the entire country practically. They both also featured strong AN precipitation anomalies along the east coast.
So I suppose we will see.
Dont let Anthony see this. And i live on the southern coast of lake michigan in northwest indiana and it’s suppose to be only 57 degrees tomorrow with lake effect rain most of the day. And only 60′s and 70′s for highs. and im listening to the weather now outta chicago a big line of severe thunderstroms packing a punchin there about 30 miles west of chicago right now. so should be in my area later tonight. behind that line of storms huge winds and deep temp cuts it was 81 today gonna be 58 tomorrow. BRING IT!
Dan
82 outside right now with a dew point of 64 degrees. Its not too bad outside. Still a little warm for my tastes but I’ll take this over what we had to put up with this past Summer any day. Highs are scattered around here. They range from the upper 70′s, to mid-upper 80′s. I believe saturday is supposed to be the warmest around here, with in the 7 day outlook.
going down to 35 here tonight, feels good !!!!!!
Missouri has highs for the weekend forcasted in the 60′s. that sure beats the pants off of our 110 summer. it’s mellowed out to highs in the 70′s and a few days in the low 80′s.
a high of 60 something for Sat & sunday, will be a treat!
I’m not quite ready for snow, I’d like some good fall weather first.
Down to 61 as I type this, with a dew point of 57.2. I went outside earlier. It was nice and crisp. Felt wonderful. Looking forward to cooler temps still though.
It will be down to mid 50s here at night by sunday and monday night next week and highs upper 70s to low 80s.
Weatherbug on my Droid says a low of 53 on this cominng Tuesday night. Ohhh yeahhh. Thats so far out though, it’ll probably go on up a little bit.
It looks like NOAA is calling for the warm weather centered where it has been all summer to continue through the new year. Bummer for us cold lovers.
It’s been feeling really cool (literally) here. Now I’m told that Sat will be in the UPPER 80s
Oh well…at least we know that on that same day is the FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN!!!!! Oh..I’m in Central Virginia!
I am in Northern VA and it was 48 degrees last. I had the window open and I was freezing. It is supposed to be in the low 80s for 2 days then upper 60s/low 70s. It is starting to feel like fall around here.
Hey glen NOAA isnt all that trust worthy man. dont count on there therey
dan
48 is great weather for open windows at night. Once it starts going in the low 40s/upper 30s I shut the windows though.
Personally I’d like to see very weak blocking, but not heavy blocking. Heavy blocking too far east just causes mild maritime air to dominate weather, much like 2009-2010. Western blocking on the other hand, like 2010-2011, would let some cold down.
All NOAA is reliable for are the current weather conditions! I’d take their warm winter outlook with a grain of salt! They pretty much say the samething every year regardless if that happens or it’s completely the opposite!
I would take any winter outlook with a grain of salt. While I don’t particularly pay much attention to the NOAA forecasts, they don’t predict the same thing every winter. Sometimes they are close, sometimes they are way off.
I know that people on this forum like to “wishcast”… personally I think that winter will start and end early in the East. Winter-like temperatures (based on averages) will start in late November but will be gone by mid-February, and overall may be warmer than normal. However, I would expect a rather active stormtrack, which should give many at least close to their average snowfall. I’ll finalize my “predictions” with some maps later on, but I’m currently leaning towards overall slightly-above-average temperatures and close-to-average snowfall for much of the East.
if u say that the winter will be warmer than normal then other hand can give us big outbreaks of severe weather over the great lakes they’ve been predicting this year, no outbreak have happend this summer so probably going to happend in the fall time or in the winter time thanks anyways questions feel free to answer those questions.
Last Fall season started out in a somewhat normal way , cold, snow etc…
Then it started to warm up during winter. Ski areas could still make snow
but the warm weather resulted in a short ski season. Less skiers = less
dollars in the local economy.
Our winter economy took a huge hit last year… was too warm to even make snow. Started out ok, but second half of January, all of February and especially March were torches. I still can’t believe we had a near 80 degree day in the middle of March with mosquitoes buzzing around last year.