How accurate is Accuweather?

Posted By: tarheelsrule44  Posted On: Oct 3rd, 2012  Filed Under: Weather

How accurate is the month forecast and what do they base it on?

I have very little idea how forecast are made.  I understand jet streams, la ninas, el ninos, and various other weather terms.  I also understand that weather “guessing” is an inexact science.  However, I’ve just found accuweather’s long term forecast and I’ve always been fascinated, for what ever reason, by long, long term forecasts (hence why I love farmers almanac).  I haven’t been able to test their forecasts yet, but I like some of the things I’m seeing.  They’re showing some serious cold with a snow flurry chance for my area (Maine) by mid october, but then saying it’ll be in the 60s around Halloween.

What is this based on or is it pure guessing?  From my time in North Carolina I learned not to trust a weather forecast, ever.

  1. trw says:

    i am not sure on what model they use, i think it is gfs, which i understand not to be very accurate for long range. I know a weather forecast is only 100% accurate about 4 hours ahead, and they can call about a week ahead pretty close, but beyond that i just call it a educated guess, and the temps are probably accurate within + or – 10 degrees or so (going by what i have noticed from accuweather in the past),   but i have noticed the precip chances for any given day vary alot from day to day or week to week…..   I still follow the long range outlook and when it says chance of snow this early i pray it is right lol

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