next week on monday night we will have a storm one side will snow and other side will bring nasty tornado outbreak from southern plains to the great lakes states at the ahead of the front temperatures will be on the warm sector humidity will be on the rise and there will be alot of shear and jl will be at 4000s and the instability will be on the increase so listening to the weather for any changes.
large variety system bringing around the christmas holidays to the southern plains to the great lakes.
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So in other words Ohio is gonna be on the snow side of this
no it will snow nothern ontario with ice southwestern ontario to midsouth we might end getting warm storms like severe weather thunderstorm we could be in the 80s next week so things might change,are departure warm amonilies won’t drop very much bc of the jump of the 20 degrees temperature change weather get very volitile weather next weeks its possibility stay at abreast for any changes in the temperature with could bring warm southern flow from kentucky. these conditions is getting very severe and with warm and cool conditions we might end of getting massive impact from the pacific system and it will bring ampifly jet stream eastern part of the country start, doing ur weather blogspot post for upcoming storm for next monday.
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Next Week Has Some Volatile Possibilities
December 03, 2012; 10:34 AM
Commentary
We are starting to see a change in the pattern and by next week, that change should be in full swing with what could be some volatile consequences. The NAO will end up going negative by mid-month and the PNA is going positive as well which may come back to haunt us around mid-month of so. Before that, the trend of the models has been to bring a storm up through the Plains into the Great Lakes. If that were correct as shown on the GFS below, the outcome would be severe weather on the east side of the storm and heavy snow on the west side.
We have seen a couple of these severe weather outbreaks in the lower Mississippi Valley and South prior to the holidays, which I really hate to see happen. Last year, it was Alabama and Georgia that had tornadoes on the 22nd. In 2010 and 2009, we had the big outbreak across the South prior to the holidays, so these types of events do happen and have happened during the past 3 years.
Right now, I am not sure how the pattern is going to evolve next week, but on the table are snow and severe weather.
Well, those latest models are indicating a huge storm system that will strengthen here in Colorado, and will interact with gulf moisture, and will create a massive swath of precipitation from Colorado clear out to the Great Lakes, and even as far as the interior Northeast, I am crossing my fingers hoping that the strongest part of the storm stays over Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, because we need more moisture than anyone else in the entire US does, especially if there is to be any real hope of containing the Fern Lake Fire, that is slowly destroying Rocky Mountain National Park.
Are they saying snow or rain for the Great Lakes region?
hay, we could use some rain in Mo. most resiviors are down by 1/3 or more. any rain we’ve got, the ground sucked up, none of it ran into creeks, ponds, lakes…. I think the local weather dude is fudging the rain totals.
we could get a storm for three days like three days storm sunday, monday and tuesday, which could be large variety storm like snow, ice and severe weather like strong convective thunderstorm could spawn big outbreak severe weather and tornadoes and high winds possibly big power outages are likely possible. we didn’t experience this kind of weather in the summer because we had a drought some kind of global warming gave us bad crops. This weather will give us more extreame weather next week and theres more to come.
Oklahoma could use the rain/snow here as well…it’s awful dry here!
theres potential for damaging winds with these storm next week so if verifies this upcoming weekend for the midwest to the great lakes to southern plains could turn out to be nasty big weather maker system coming through next week.
is it too much to ask for just the rain?
I’d much rather have snow… but either one will do. the wind etc…. I dont want so much.
lets all cross our fingers and toes, just rain or snow please.
they said that the vortex is stronger than normal but if that were to happend are christmas could be doom and we can’t have a celebration which could riun it, if we get weaker than normal vortex we will get warm and nice conditions and fair weather, so they are saying there’s a chance that high front could gives us a good recipe for either snow and ice and maybe severe thunderstorm which we didn’t get in the summer because of the drought in the midwest the storm wasn’t oppressive it moves the volatile weather coming from eastern pacific if this verifies and the pattern goes to stronger vortex we could be in for wild ride for sure, keep your finger and toes crossed, this could be a severe winter on the horizon from the central plains to the great lakes much of the nation we might break out the shorts around christmas time because of the earth changes we are going through over the fall of 2012.
it looks like we might end of getting ice event, windswept and little snow frozen precip from midwest to the southern great lakes.
Wednesday, 5 December 2012
Storminess First Then Cold Overwhelms
Pattern will become more active across ontario and quebec with a la nina like pattern already setting up now and an active southeast ridge allowing the storm track to shift up towards the great lakes region. Although it is still too early to tell which particular events will hold which precipitation types the boundary between warm and cold will set up across the great lakes which will allow for storminess and potentially snow depending on how much cold air gets involved. 18z GFS notice the active storm track favoured to be further west with the blocking shifting west which should allow for more cooling to shift east. Overall, this is an active and near normal temperature pattern for the east mid month before the frigid air has a chance to come down later in the month when the pattern promotes it. A -pna has been causing the coldest anomalies to shift into the west but with the frigid air building up across the northwest all we need is a trigger for the floodgates of cold to open up in the east. This will be a slow step down to colder and not a sudden cold snap, keep that in mind! I will take snow over cold any day even if it means a few mixed precipitation events.
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Posted by Blizzardof96 at 18:17 No comments:
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Monday, 3 December 2012
Modelling Should Shift East With 10-11th Storm
I believe the european model guidance is too far west with this storm as the system currently west of japan correlates with an east GLC, OV or Apps runner track in the 6-10 day period which is much more in line with the GFS. Watch for the european and other modelling showing a west-central GLC to shift east.Surface Map:
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Satellite Picture Shows the storm west of Japan:
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Posted by Blizzardof96 at 19:16 No comments:
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Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event Beginning To Materialize
Current observations are showing a rapid warming of the stratosphere at 70,50 and 30mb which means that the sustained arctic cold will come earlier then expected. We will have to watch this situation continue to evolve but it looks like some cold outbreaks will set up in mid december but nothing sustained and brutal. This stratospheric temperature evolution will help to suppress and cool the troposphere rapidly as the stratosphere warms but there is a ten day lag between a sudden stratospheric warming event and the cold felt at the surface. When this does occur temperatures can be frigid with a crash of the AO. Right now anomalies are slightly above normal but if temps continue to soar like they are now then a SSW event may occur allowing that cold air to charge south at the end of dec/beginning of jan period. If this happens it is a very good sign for a cold january.
Posted by Blizzardof96 at 15:49 No comments:
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Storm Potential Nov 9-11
There are a few points that i want to make about the upcoming storm around the 11th. 1) Keep in mind that the euro has been doing better then the GFS lately but it has been flip flopping a lot from west to east in the last few runs with this potential storm2) GFS appears to be having trouble bundling the energy associated with the southern branch energy as well as energy moving in from the NW associated with the trough. It had the idea of a secondary wave but has now went to a stronger, phased storm with one waveWith this being said i do believe a considerable amount of cold air will be available for this storm to work with and locations on the NW side of the low will get pounded with snow. I also believe that this storm will be strong with pressure in the 980′s indicated on the three major models (ecm,gfs and cmc). This may be slightly overdone but this storm should be strong. Track of the storm is the largest uncertainty at the moment in my mind but i believe that the euro will shift east some to come more in line with the GFS but probably not that far east. I will continue to update you as the event gets closer and should have a better idea by tomorrow night hopefully.
Heres the latest run of the 18z GFS:
186:
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192:
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Total snowfall:
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Posted by Blizzardof96 at 15:04 No comments:
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Sunday, 2 December 2012
Long Range Cold Lurking
Analogs are indicating a cold pattern trying to erase the warm anomalies across the east from first week of december. Central u.s averages out above normal due to the extreme positive departures they are currently experiencing.
January will turn out very cold from alaska through the northern plains and great lakes into the east. I believe the teleconnections are moving that way and the stratosphere is beginning to warm at a rapid pace which will force the cold to come down in january. The Pacific SST’s are very supportive of this pattern change with convection already firing along the date line which did not occur last winter. Arctic hounds should release in january.
Stratospheric warmth shifting east means bering sea ridge moves west into northeast asia, more troughiness returns to the aleutians as well as japan and a ridge pumps up south of alaska.
Current anomalies:
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Notice the shift east of the warmest anomalies which will drive the trough south of the aleutians where the convection is setting up along the dateline. This breakdown of the omega ridge will allow for a much more favourable pattern across eastern NA:
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Convection firing up south of the same area:
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Notice the switch from current 500mb pattern to 8-10 day pattern and trough developing NW of hawaii. I believe the euro is handling the pattern best.
Current strong bering sea ridge and trough in gulf of alaska with warm and progressive north american pattern:
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Major shift to colder in 8-10 day forecast period and just the beginning of the cold pattern with 70mb temperatures looking the way they are!
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Posted by Blizzardof96 at 19:10 No comments:
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Saturday, 1 December 2012
Major Pattern Changes On The Way
8-16 day temperature anomalies from the GFS are showing the very cold air across alaska, B.C, yukon and northern prairies moving southeastwards. This air mass is probable underdone for the east considering hudson bay is already beginning to freeze over so above normal departures are very unlikely which present big implications on the model which is not picking up on this.
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Snow Cover:
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Watch the warmth fade away on the GEFS:
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Long range 500mb height anomalies depict a strong trough in the east:
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The deep snowpack in the NW at hour 192 argues for an air mass that is continuing to get colder and when it is triggered to come eastwards will be very cold.
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Indicies support this change with a tank in the ao and nao:
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PNA still negative so expect cold centered in the east but trough nationwide with widespread cold across southern canada and an active storm track. An alaskan ridge will pump and hold allowing this frigid air mass to move eastwards. The pattern change is coming and in a big way without any stratospheric support. As stratosphere continues to warm through december a sudden warming event may occur(favoured in an east QBO year) which would lock in a cold january.
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Posted by Blizzardof96 at 05:51 No comments:
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Thursday, 29 November 2012
Southern Ontario First Significant Snowfall
The GTA and the golden horseshoe will experience its first significant snowfall of the season tomorrow. Light flurries will begin tonight with light bands of snow moving through the area after the midnight hour. As the night wears on, the snow will begin to pick up in intensity around 9 AM with more consistent bands of snow around the west end of lake ontario in particular which could pick up some precipitation enhancement from the lake. By 11 am the heaviest bands of precipitation will move through SW ontario first with a light burst of snow/freezing rain and sleet before moving northwards and effecting the GTA around noon. This band of snow will slowly move eastwards allowing for light snow to fall from orangeville, through the GTA, niagara, hamilton and the NW shores of lake erie between 10am and the late evening hours. This band of snow will be nothing special for southern ontario but it will promote an ENE to ESE wind off of lake ontario which may work to enhance snow totals. This has been advertised on the RAP, NMM and ARW high resolution models showing enhanced precipitation from hamilton to oakville and even the GTA to a lesser extent. Right now it is hard to tell if and where these bands will set up but my hunch tells me based on wind shear values, light easterly winds and a small temperature inversion that snow will stay light under this system causing 2-5cm amounts across the golden horseshoe. This will be enough snow to coat many cooler surfaces but will not present major problems for road travel. If under the event that lake enhancement does take place these amount can easily double with some areas picking up 5-10+cm of snow. I remember waking up one morning in january of 2011 with a surprise 15-25cm of snow due to lake effect bands off of lake ontario which can pack a quick punch if the correct setup presents itself including heavy snow rates.
NMM Similated Radar:
850mb Temperatures are supportive of snow:
Sounding for mid day friday:
Posted by Blizzardof96 at 18:53 No comments:
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u guys get rid of this thread is not happening thank you