Posted by Andrew of The Weather Centre: Possible collapse of the Polar Vortex

Posted By: sapporo1  Posted On: Dec 22nd, 2012  Filed Under: Weather

Just today,  Andrew has put out some models showing an alarmingly powerful Stratospheric Warming that looks to take shape over the Arctic in the coming weeks, and it looks possible that this event could be so powerful, that it could cause an outright total collapse of the Polar Vortex altogether.
The Polar Vortex is a swirling stream that locks cold air in the arctic, when high pressure forms over the arctic, it forces the Polar Vortex to weaken, releasing some of that cold air into the mid-latitudes for short bursts.
When a very powerful high sets up over the arctic, it can substantially weaken the PV, or even cause it to collapse completely, allowing frigid arctic air to run rampant all over the mid-latitudes, with little chance of retreat until the time in which the PV can re-strengthen.
In short, if the PV collapses in January, as Andrew has demonstrated is very possible, then frigid arctic air could pour into the entire United States and get trapped here for prolonged periods of time, leading to much, much colder than normal temps for the entire nation.
Also, a negative PNA (Pacific North American Index) is continuing, in fact, I see a pattern that almost faintly resembles a Rex Block showing up, which favors storms moving into the Southwest, then shooting into the Southern, Central Plains and then riding into the Midwest, then either hitting the east coast, or heading into eastern Canada. 
To summarize that, it means that a very cold, snowy winter could be taking shape over the entire nation very soon, so take heart everyone, what we have all been waiting for could finally come to fruition.
No  Guarantees, but it certainly is a VERY REAL possibility. 

  1. KatD-Mo. says:

    gee, that almost sounds scarry.  we could use the snow, for the plows and the farmers… but I’m not too sure about the “arctic air” part. :D

    well, we shall see, wether we like it or not.

    Merry Christmas to all!   

  2. The Rickster says:

    I’m interested in seeing what is going to unfold. Its supposed to get down to the middle 20′s for lows tonight, then stay in the middle 50′s, to lower 60′s for highs, and lows ranging from the middle 40′s, to the middle 20′s (the 20s are for tonight, and tomorrow night). I’m loving this weather, despite the fact that I can’t do much outside, in my bike shop. 

    I say bring all on! 

  3. snowboi1 says:

    Ive been praying for cold artic air for years so I pray this happens and it get well below normal here in South Carolina to at least 15-20 degrees below normal with lots more snow.One can pray.

  4. The Rickster says:

    Yup..praying and hoping is what I’ll be doing as well. 

  5. snowboi1 says:

    When will we know more on this happening?

  6. buddy17474 says:

    That would be cool if that happened, but Canada might have to be abandoned, lol.

  7. Delstein says:

    Andrew just put out another post on it today. It’s a little lengthy, but it sounds like January and February are going to be very cold. 

  8. snowboi1 says:

    Hey Delstein where can I find the post?

  9. winterwarrior says:

    You can find that article if you go to
    Not a bad read, hope it verifies 

  10. KatD-Mo. says:

    well its colder than doodah here.  with an other week forcasted as COLD.  we had a seriously hot summer, a hot/warm fall and up until very recently… warm/cool late fall.

    all that glorious snow blew south of me. :(   the previous chances…. blew north of Mo.  so far, we just get the warm/cool and now some cold.  

    bone chilling cold is workable… when there’s snow.  without the snow, its just dog gone cold!  lol.

    I’ll be setting up a heated water tank for the mares, because it looks like the pond has a good chance to freeze over nicely. 

    heh, ”winter” came on late, I wonder if this means its gonna stay late too?

    any who.  HAPPY WINTERRRR!!!!!!        

  11. cjjtsmom says:

    Will North Carolina see the cold and snow?

  12. buddy17474 says:

    @cjjtsmom and snowboi1
    I think even Florida would see cold and snow from this. It would effect everyone. If this does happen, southerners may have to consider buying their first snow shovel… PLEASE HAPPEN.

  13. snowboi1 says:

    I agree buddy17474 please I pray this happens.

  14. Flake Fan says:

    I’d love some long-term deep arctic air, but unless there’s something to lock it in, it will only last as long more keeps flowing south.

  15. The Rickster says:

    Hope we get some snow if this collapse of the P.V. comes to pass. So far, all we’ve gotten in a few cold rains. 

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