Saturday, February 2, 2013
Hello everyone, I am here to bring you the detailed forecast for this severe weather season. We’ll get right on it with my analogues.
We start with geopotential heights at the 500 millibar level for years that had a La Nina early in the preceding year turning into a neutral or slight El Nino winter, again in the preceding year. Also included were years following solid negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) years. Looking at the geopotential height anomalies for these analogue years, we find a gigantic swath of below normal height anomalies across the entire West US, including the West Coast and Rockies. The Upper Midwest is also included. More significant than this is the presence of that light green color in the Southeast. This is known in the weather world as the ‘Southeast Ridge’. The Southeast Ridge is literally a ridge of high pressure that forms in the Southeast and provokes storms to stay further north in the southern Midwest rather than going through the Gulf Coast. Seeing this in place enhances my initial thoughts that storms will indeed take this track that sends storms (and severe weather) up into the Midwest and Plains.