Never listen to Paul Pastelok

Posted By: sapporo1  Posted On: Mar 15th, 2013  Filed Under: Weather

just in case anyone saw the spring to summer forecast from accuweather’s Paul Pastelok, disregard it, Pastelok has never been very accurate in his long range forecasts, especially since he seems to predict the same pattern every summer, which has a bias towards blocking high, always stationed over Colorado or Wyoming, and saying it will be stationary, preventing any and all precipitation from reaching either state, and a summer-long trough in the east, bringing much wetter than normal weather to that area all summer long.
I personally din’t buy it for a second, as first of all, as of recently, we are in a completely different pattern this spring across the rockies, it has been a much, much wetter March than we had last year, and April looks to continue being much different than last year’s dissappointment.
Here is my synopsis on late spring into summer…
Pacific Northwest:
after a warm winter for the most part, with a few exceptions, temperatures may actually heat up for Seattle and Portland, with a few spells of 90 to possibly even 100 degree heat, temperatures, however may end up being closer to average than last year’s scorcher, the same goes for precipitation, that area should end up closer to average than last year.
Southwest:
high pressure may form temporarily in this region, but may actually fuel a stronger Monsoonal flow toward mid-summer, this summer, temperatures will likely be above average, but precipitation should also end up being slightly above to above average, watch for a few strong heat waves, especially in late summer.
Rockies/Front Range:
this area will see occasinal heat waves this summer, the current drought conditions will ensure at least slightly above normal temperatures, especially early on, however, precipitation will increase during June as a zonal pattern may set up in this area at least temporarily, then July will bring possibly large thunderstorm events, as a steep temperature gradient may develop at times, this could also fuel an above average severe weather scenario for the Front Range, watch for some nasty hail events, flash flooding and possibly even a few tornado outbreaks in the far eastern plains of northeast Colorado, overall, summer temps will be slightly above normal, with slightly above to above normal rainfall.
Overall, I expect the drought to finally ease, maybe even be squelched in isolated locations, depending on local precipition patterns, which can vary greatly from place to place, but overall, I do expect at least a decent chance of improving conditions this summer.
Plains states:
this area will see similar weather to the  Rockies/Front Range, with a few heat waves, but improving drought conditions once low level moisture starts to arrive from the deep south, expect an uptick in severe weather a strong possibility, especially in June, tornado alley definitely needs to be prepared, despite Pastelok’s call for a dry summer.
rain could potentially be abundant in July, due to low level moisture combined with leftover monsoonal flow, which could occasionally fuel a few large cluster events, especially in the southern plains.
Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio, Mississippi valley.
The big words for this area will be, hot and wet, as derecho events barreling in from the west will likely sweep across the area with blinding fury at times, heavy rain and flash flooding could be a concern at times during the summer, also a few heat waves may encompass this area, but temperature swings will likely be commonplace.
Southeast:
this area will be a hot spot for some searning heat waves with strong humidity, followed by drenching rains this summer, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will likely be in abundant supply, though severe weather could be below normal this summer due to more stable air in this region, but don’t ever let your guard down.
Mid Atlantic/Northeast:
this area will not likely be as incredibly active as last year for severe weather, as cooler, more stable air will settle in for longer periods of time, watch for an occasional searing heat wave, followed by drenching rains,tropical threats are up in the air, but be prepared anyway.
And do not let your guard down for severe weather, as it can occur anywhere, in any region of the US, at any time, day or night. 
This has been Sapporo 1′s  synopsis on what to expect for the upcoming summer, let me know your feedback on what you think of this forecast.
Thank you: 

  1. Grandin says:

    i live in the midwest i heard it was suppose to be hot and wet as well. Good job on your forecasting weather sectors sapporo 1..
     
    Dan

  2. TheMaineMan says:

    I’d take that Northeast forecast… nice to have breaks in the heat during the summer.
     
    The pattern certainly is much different than last year already.

  3. tornadoes2 says:

    Gl higher than normal severe weather may and june

  4. sapporo1 says:

    Good example of how drought does not always wick away precipitation across a region.
    We were in a terrible drought during the 2010-2011 winter, similar to the same situation we are in now, very little snow fell across our region due to a deviated jet stream, however, that all changed in mid-late June,2011, as moisture began to stream into our region, and both July and August were warmer than normal, but also wetter than usual, and a few huge rain events in August and September really brought us over the mark, and completely erased any and all drought across our region, by fall of that year, we were actually back to normal, and some places were even in a surplus.

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